Florida Weather

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yesterday's frontal energy has exited the area- so it is not nearly
as active as yesterday. Just a few very isolated
sprinkles dot the central peninsula.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[cycloneye]

Hey guys,I would like send to you there wet weather from here as you need it badly.

[gatorcane]

Hey guys,I would like send to you there wet weather from here as you need it badly.

Please do cycloneye, its so dry here, almost desert-like conditions now with the hot May sun...and I smell burnt grass in the air.

But I know one thing for sure, when the rainy season starts here it starts with a bang. By that I mean, once the rainy season starts, it starts right away. The day before may be dry and hot with virtually no clouds in sight...then the next day features widespread showers and thunderstorms.

I can't wait for that day to come...then after about 16-18 weeks (depending on the year) of rainfall nearly everday and all of the heat/humidity and a hurricane or so depending upon the year, we can't wait for it to end. That is how it works here in South Florida

[Sanibel]

Should start seeing the lightning-containing thunderheads in the evening in a couple of weeks.

[NDG]

The GFS is once again flirting with the idea of some much needed rain for the FL peninsula by mid next week through the end of the week with an approaching trough of low pressure.

[JonathanBelles]

Large fire in Wesley Chapel right now expanding rapidly. The wind is pushing embers extremely far, and the fire itself very fast. Lots of fuel right now, not going to go down easily. The sea breeze is picking up, but the land breeze should kill the fire later.

[NDG]

Some encouraging signs of some rain possible coming for the peninsula.
There is a surge of moisture coming in from the Caribbean. Central & eastern Cuba saw some increased afternoon thunderstorm activity earlier this afternoon:


Tonight's 00z NAM wants to start increasing afternoon thunderstorm activity as early as tomorrow afternoon starting in S FL, becoming more widespread into central FL by Sunday and Monday.

[gatorcane]

NDG, I think you are right -- NWS Miami discussions 20% to 30% rain chances each day for SE FL starting next mid next week. Could this be the start of the rainy season? Also GFS 06Z showing increased moisture to the peninsula... It may be here finally. I do think the switch is about to turn on during the next 2 weeks.

Metro Palm Beach County:

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 85.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86.

NWS Discussion snippet on these increased rain chances.

THEN FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OF 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WITH MORE PRECIP AROUND
AND MORE CLOUD COVER, SEE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY UNDER 90.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Getting near record highs inland: 97*F plant city and tampa
vandenburg; 94*F Orlando
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPCM.html

[HURAKAN]

My thermometer registered a high of 94.5ºF and a HI of 105ºF.

[JonathanBelles]

It was my first 90°+ day with a high no lower than 91 (@3pm). That was the only time I went out to check, so it could have been higher.

[NDG]

Hoping that the NAM is correct, according to it we should start seeing some isolated afternoon storms pop this afternoon in inland parts of southern & central FL:



With more popping over the next couple of days as a trough of low pressure and or frontal boundary gets over the northern and central sections:







On the med range forecast, the euro wants to park a cut off ULL over or near the peninsula, I hoping for that one to come true.

[NDG]

This is some encouraging news, hopefully the cap will continue to weaken over the next few days:

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KTBW 101336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH LESS OF A CAP THAN
YESTERDAY...SO WOULD EXPECT DEEPER CU...AND AN ISOLD SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST...SO DESPITE THE WEAKER
CAP...WILL HOLD POPS TO 10 PERCENT TODAY. OTHERWISE...TODAYS WEATHER
SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.

[gatorcane]

This Bermuda ridge just won't let up. Check out this latest NWS update, which is backing off on rain chances now for SE Florida as the ridge holds strong while easterly winds increase.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT NOW DEPICTED ON THE GFS40 AND THE
ECMWF MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH IS A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAT WAS SEEN 24 HRS AGO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING NOT GIVING WAY AND NOT ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA MID WEEK. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND INSTEAD A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO NORTH FLORIDA AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLIES TO INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THIS SCENARIO, HAD TO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MID WEEK ON. THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXPECT
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEN AFTER MID WEEK, A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF INLAND THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR HENDRY COUNTY FOR THE
FIRE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. FOG MAY MIX IN WITH THE SMOKE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Lurker]

I saw that too Gatorcane. The incredibly dry winter/spring continues for South Florida. Locations across South Florida are running 7-10 inches below normal this year.

[NDG]

Hot!!!!
Check out my temperature:

[JonathanBelles]

Its 91 here right now, but not too incredibly humid today.

[JonathanBelles]

I just looked, and SP Clearwater airport recorded 94 today!.

[psyclone]

Orlando is now up to 97! it is roasting but with dewpoints in the 50's there is a southwestern feel to central florida today. Obviously the drought is worsening with this extreme heat and dry air. interestingly enough, the US drought monitor downgraded the immediate Tampa bay metro to "moderate" drought after the squall line that produced the Pasco county tornado came through here a month ago. that moisture is long gone. the lake level @ lake tarpon is now lower than it ever was when we were officially classified in "severe" drought. June 10 seems to be a good rule of thumb for the beginning of the wet season on the immediate coast in west central fl... so another month to go.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

98*F Sanford, Hit 97*F Orlando.