WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think this is 60KT yet... looks more like 45 on the microwave

[margiek]

I dont think this is 60KT yet... looks more like 45 on the microwave

I agree and would have estimated in the neighborhood of 50 kt based on the recent WindSat, but the 06/0205Z AMSU shows improvement in the structure and 60kt seems good for 06/0600Z. Looks like there is a small window for intensification until maybe 06/1800Z, possibly to 07/0000Z, and if the recent AMSR-E shows an improved structure then it seems likely to me that it will get up to around 80-85 kt in that time period, before it hits the higher shear and lower SSTs and OHC. If not, then closer to the current JTWC intensity forecast.

Update -- the AMSR-E did not show a promising structure, in fact showed a similar structure to the earlier WindSat.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 061200 CCB
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 14.5N 114.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 15.7N 118.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 081200UTC 16.5N 119.2E 130NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 091200UTC 17.7N 118.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[HURAKAN]

NRL: Back to 60 knots

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 825
WTPQ21 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 14.8N 116.1E FAIR
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 16.3N 118.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 081800UTC 17.8N 119.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 091800UTC 19.6N 118.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN

[Aslkahuna]

This storm is following an atypical path for Philippine typhoons and will be affecting the west coast of Luzon the most. Landfall is forecast to be north of Dagupan and close to Laoag. The following stations will be the ones closest to the landfalling location. Dagupan, Laoag, Baguio City, Iba, Clark Economic Zone (aka Diosdado Macapagal International Airport), Crow Valley Gunnery Range, Basa AB, and Subic. Manila Bay is open to the SW so Bayside locations such as the airport and Sangley Point could see high winds. Of the stations listed, Iba and Subic are most likely to see the strongest winds while the heaviest rains will most assuredly occur in Baguio. If the storm landfalls north of Laoag then that location could be blasted otherwise for a storm passing to the south the winds are off the large mountain mass to the east. Subic is especially good for SW flow squalls with heavy rain.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming more apparent in visible.

[Chacor]

Up to 75 kt, which is stronger than JMA's been forecasting. Downhill from here though.

WTPQ21 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 15.3N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 16.6N 120.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 090000UTC 18.1N 123.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 100000UTC 19.6N 122.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

That doesn't bode well. Somehow I doubt this storm's going to drop 25 kt in 24 hours before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the weakening involves landfall. This could be inland before 24 hours

[Chacor]

I think the weakening involves landfall. This could be inland before 24 hours

The JMA's 6-12-18-24 hour forecast on the ICAO advisory is 70-65-60-50 kt. That's still weakening before landfall unless it makes landfall around 06z.

[Derek Ortt]

likely inland in 12-18 hours

[Aslkahuna]

JT has the first landfall on the Peninsula NW of Dagupan City on the Lingayen Gulf around 07/12Z followed by a second landfall northward of Poro Point several hours later. Landfalling intensity by JT is 65kt which would be around 60kt for JMA. The Zambales and Cabisulan Mountains southward from Lingayen go up to 5-6k and is a fairly impressive wall so land interactions will start about 6 hours before landfall given the size of the storm. These mountains, BTW, also include a peak called Pinatubo.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

07/0230 UTC 15.6N 118.1E T4.5/4.5 CHAN-HOM -- West Pacific

[HurricaneBill]

What is the little island to the east of Chan-Hom's eye?

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 15.8N 118.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 16.9N 122.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090600UTC 18.6N 122.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 100600UTC 20.3N 120.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[KWT]

Still looking pretty decent, not seeing any weakening yet and landfall isn't too far away so quite possible for Chan-Hom to come in as a Typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

What is the little island to the east of Chan-Hom's eye?

Little island? Luzon.