2009 Severe Weather thread

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Dave
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#241 Postby Dave » Wed May 06, 2009 1:39 pm

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE
SOUTH CAROLINA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 254...WW 255...

DISCUSSION...AS TROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS FIELDS APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WITH WARM
SECTOR BECOMING UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.
FAVORED AREA FOR POSSIBLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE VICINITY LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN PORTION OF WATCH WHERE SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE ENHANCED.

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
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#242 Postby Dave » Wed May 06, 2009 2:19 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINCOLNTON...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
LINCOLNTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOGER CITY AND IRON STATION...
DENVER...
TERRELL...
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#243 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 07, 2009 8:18 am

Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AL...SWRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071247Z - 071345Z

SMALL BOW ECHO INTENSIFIED QUICKLY DURING PAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS
MACON COUNTY AL WITH APPARENT WIND DAMAGE. BOOKEND VORTEX APPEARS
TO BE RETREATING IN RAIN SHIELD AS INITIAL BOW GUSTS OUT...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
TRAILING LINE SEGMENT. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE THREAT...ISOLATED
HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR...AND BRIEF TORNADIC SPINUP CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN LEWP/BOOKEND TYPE CIRCULATIONS.

MESOSCALE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EVIDENT ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...FROM NEAR QUITMAN/STEWART COUNTY LINE GA NWWD TO VICINITY
FIRST SMALL BOW...THEN NWWD ALONG TRAILING BAND OF TSTMS. THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDS NWWD TO MORE DIFFUSE/SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN MEI-TCL...AND MAY REMAIN WELL DEFINED THROUGH LATE MORNING
DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING ON EITHER SIDE. MODIFIED RAOBS
AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. CINH APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN
FROM NW-SE OVER SERN AL AND SWRN GA...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SE FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL CAN MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LIFT. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES IN THIS AREA WILL AID IN ORGANIZATION OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF CORES ALONG TRAILING TSTM
BAND WILL ENHANCE THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 1-2
INCHES/HOUR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2009
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#244 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 07, 2009 11:47 am

Impressive MCS moving toward Springfield, MO for the AM commute...

Image

Image

Per the GFS

NAM has it hit closer to lunch.
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#245 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 07, 2009 12:22 pm

Moderate risk tomorrow over Southern Oklahoma.
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Re:

#246 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 07, 2009 12:26 pm

RL3AO wrote:Moderate risk tomorrow over Southern Oklahoma.



EWG may or may not chase it. Low level winds look a little weak, but TTs near 60 and CAPE near 4000 J/Kg per GFS and NAM forecasts suggests severe weather likely. Bit of a cap apparent in soundings, I suspect outflow boundaries or the weak front will be the trigger point(s).
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Re: Re:

#247 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 07, 2009 1:11 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Moderate risk tomorrow over Southern Oklahoma.



EWG may or may not chase it. Low level winds look a little weak, but TTs near 60 and CAPE near 4000 J/Kg per GFS and NAM forecasts suggests severe weather likely. Bit of a cap apparent in soundings, I suspect outflow boundaries or the weak front will be the trigger point(s).



New SWODY2 is down to a SLIGHT RISK, but has most of Oklahoma hatched.
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#248 Postby Brent » Thu May 07, 2009 1:16 pm

Major flooding in Montgomery this morning:

1111 AM FLASH FLOOD MONTGOMERY 32.35N 86.28W
05/07/2009 MONTGOMERY AL TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE FEET OF WATER IN THE BASEMENT OF THE STATE HOUSE.
SOME COLLAPSE OF INTERIOR WALLS, BUT STRUCTURE NOT
COMPROMISED.

1040 AM FLASH FLOOD MONTGOMERY 32.35N 86.28W
05/07/2009 MONTGOMERY AL AMATEUR RADIO

WATER TWO FEET DEEP OVER 6 BLOCK AREA AWAY FROM DECATUR
AND MADISON STREETS.

1040 AM FLASH FLOOD MONTGOMERY 32.35N 86.28W
05/07/2009 MONTGOMERY AL AMATEUR RADIO

JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 231 AND EASTERN BYPASS NEAR LAGOON
PARK. POND OVERFLOWING ROAD. WATER ONE FOOT DEEP.

1040 AM FLASH FLOOD MONTGOMERY 32.35N 86.28W
05/07/2009 MONTGOMERY AL AMATEUR RADIO

IN THE AVONDALE ROAD AREA, WATER OVER ROAD AND CARS
BECOMING STALLED IN HIGH WATER. SEVERAL CREEKS ARE OUT OF
THEIR BANKS.
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#249 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 07, 2009 5:56 pm

Low tornado probabilities in this severe watch box per SPC

Image

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
654 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

NCC133-072315-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090507T2315Z/
ONSLOW NC-
654 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR ONSLOW
COUNTY...

AT 653 PM EDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR HAWS RUN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW RIVER AIR STATION...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VERONA...6 MILES SOUTH OF NEW RIVER AIR STATION AND 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN GATE BY 715 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHERN PAMLICO COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 651 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CAYTON...OR
10 MILES NORTH OF NEW BERN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPRING HOPE BY 700 PM EDT...
EDWARD BY 715 PM EDT...
PRESCOTT AND SILVER HILL BY 720 PM EDT...
ROYAL BY 730 PM EDT...
MARIBEL BY 745 PM EDT...
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#250 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 08, 2009 12:58 am

The very very rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
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#251 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 08, 2009 7:04 am

I just fell asleep before seeing that one.
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#252 Postby Dave » Fri May 08, 2009 7:15 am

Just caught this one.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT.

* AT 706 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MULBERRY...OR NEAR ARMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERAL BY 715 AM CDT.
VERDELLA BY 725 AM CDT.
SHELDON BY 740 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF OSKALOOSA...HANNON...BRONAUGH...IRWIN AND MILO ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
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#253 Postby Dave » Fri May 08, 2009 7:18 am

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO WEST VIRGINIA.

WELL DEFINED...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT SURGES EAST AT ROUGHLY 60 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. VERY
STRONG WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF
SRN KANSAS WHERE GUSTS HAVE APPROACHED 80 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..DARROW.. 05/08/2009
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#254 Postby Dave » Fri May 08, 2009 7:21 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WESTERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

* AT 719 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR ALBA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JASPER BY 730 AM CDT.
GOLDEN CITY BY 750 AM CDT.
LOCKWOOD BY 800 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CARYTOWN...MAPLE GROVE...DUDENVILLE AND MEINERT ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
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#255 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 08, 2009 7:23 am

I made a separate thread. Also high-end severe warnings (80+ mph) warrant posting.
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#256 Postby Dave » Fri May 08, 2009 7:25 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266...

VALID 081217Z - 081315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266
CONTINUES.

DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ESEWD AT 60 KT AS MCS BEGINS TO TURN
A BIT MORE SWD ALONG EDGE OF STRONG CAP OVER OK. ADDITIONALLY...A
FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION PORTION
OF THIS MCS...AHEAD OF PRIMARY BOW WITHIN SEVERAL NW-SE ORIENTED
LINES. IN SUPPORT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF IS
VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG IF LIFTING
A PARCEL JUST OFF THE SFC NEAR 900 MB. NEEDLESS TO SAY WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOW AS IT RACES ALONG THE
MO/AR BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS SPEED IT WILL
APPROACH THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH BETWEEN 15-16Z.
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#257 Postby Bunkertor » Fri May 08, 2009 7:25 am

Chaser Jordan Hamilton is near Springfield doing the carwash
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Re:

#258 Postby Dave » Fri May 08, 2009 7:26 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I made a separate thread. Also high-end severe warnings (80+ mph) warrant posting.


Sounds good better than loading this thread up.
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#259 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 08, 2009 9:04 am

DFW area added to SLIGHT RISK on 1300 SWODY1.

I'd guess, with CINH in the ballpark of -200 J/Kg per GFS forecast soundings that the cap holds, and the chance for storms is almost nil. Almost, but not quite, I suppose, perhaps an outflow from the Oklahoma/Missouri MCV can cross the Red River and surface convergence/differential heating/subtle mid-level feature can break the cap, producing isolated storms that would probably become super-celluar.

I give you the "loaded gun" for Dallas-Fort Worth. I'd unofficially, as an amateur, estimate rain chances of less than 20% anyway in Dallas/Tarrant/Denton/Collin counties, but any storm that could somehow fire could be bad.

Image
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Re: 2009 Severe Weather thread

#260 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 08, 2009 10:16 am

Just looking at 7 am soundings off SPC web site for places like Del Rio and Midland. They are welly and truly capped. But the convective temperature to break the cap is ballpark 100ºF, and South and West Texas may do that. Of course, I, as a rank amateur, don't know how to exactly figure out how daytime mixing of a shallow humid layer with dry air above will effect the actual temperature needed when Del Rio gets to 100ºF to break the cap.
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