New bahamas system possible?

ameriwx2003 · #1 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 12:34 pm

The 12 utc GFS is starting to pick up on that disturbed area North of Hispanola and in the SE Bahamas. interesting 96 hr position:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 1:57 pm

Hmmmm...interesting. Will be interesting to see if the GFS keeps this possibility or if it looses it in a day or two.

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 2:05 pm

Colin, yes it will be interesting to see if the GFS keeps this feature or loses it in a day or so. Who knows it may lose it the next model run:):) but it will be interesting to watch

:)

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 2:38 pm

I noticed it was curving it away from the Leeward Islands. Hopefully if anything develops it will be fish food.

HEY... is that wave starting to show some spin?

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 3:36 pm

I think they're referring to the Bahama area of disturbed weather Lindaloo, which actually is beginning to look interesting again in the central Bahamas. Regarding the CV wave, don't go with a fish story yet. Even in the fish run you'll notice that it shows it jogging NW into a building ridge. So even if that scenario were to pan out, it would either turn north or turn its head back to the west. This year the ridge has won out. Besides I don't see the route (potential) as being that far north. First we need a storm to watch, then will start to focus on the details. Way too many variables to talk track yet, but if I was to hazard a guess, I'd say this was going on a more southern route than the GFS. CheerS!!

Lindaloo · #6 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 3:45 pm

Well said... thanks Steve.

ameriwx2003 · #7 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 3:45 pm

Yes, sorry about the confusion. I was referring to the disorganized convection around the Bahamas. The GFS has been hinting that this system will get better organized the last few runs. I took a look at the Florida AFD's and only a few mention it.One discounts its soultion and one is taking I will believe it when I see it approach:):)
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

Lindaloo · #8 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 3:46 pm

trust me ameriwx... it does not take alot to get me confused. :lol:

ameriwx2003 · #9 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 4:23 pm

Lindaloo, Hey no problem

:). I live in a state of confusion myself. I find it makes things more exciting

:)

Kevin_Gould · #10 Postby **Kevin_Gould** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 12:05 am

The convection is looking better there as time goes by, and seems to be more SE than it was before. Will be interesting to see if this thing endures all summer without moving much lol. Definetely something to keep an eye out on, though in all likelihood it won't come of much. With it this close to the mainland, and with nice conditions last time I checked, most anything is possible.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 3:54 am

Yes, Kevin... the convection at least has been moving southeastward overnight. It will be interesting to see what the visible imagery is showing.

It has been obvious that the convection with this system has been having trouble moving in any direction.

ameriwx2003 · #12 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 7:36 am

Yes, lets see if the convection can persist for any length of time. Condidtions are becoming more favorable in the area the next couple of days. Time will tell:):)

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:01 am

Does look a bit better today!!! :wink:

Steve H. · #14 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:26 am

Definitely a circulation in the East Central Bahamas!! Having a hard time with the network. Anyboby have a long loop they can access? I'm trying to assess where this might end up. Last GFS I saw had the Blob of moisture going over Florida into the GOM. Has the trough bypassed the east coast yet? Can't load any loops. Thoughts?

#15 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:47 am

You're seeing the mid-level circulation. There is no LLC to speak of yet. There is good inflow moving into the system and good convergence at the low levels. Ventilation is improving so we just need to be patient. Convection is still pulsing so...we need to wait another day.

#16 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 10:42 am

Ventilation of the system is looking really good. I read on another site that the upper winds do not favor development. I beleive the winds are good and getting better. Water vapor and IR shows good outflow in 3 quads. I think this will even improve over time.

The system in the eastern ATL also looks primed to go. We may have two TD's in the next 2 days.

Lindaloo · #17 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:18 am

It sure does look like a TD to me. I am no expert either. It is definitely getting it's act together!!

#18 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:24 am

Not yet Lindaloo. There is no sfc circulation yet. It's actually a pretty weak trof. But...good convergence is going on and it has potential.

Steve H. · #19 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:24 am

Thanks! Yeah, it still looks disorganized.

Lindaloo · #20 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:26 am

Thanks Air Force Met and Steve for the info.

New bahamas system possible?

New bahamas system possible?

Whoa!!

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