Excited about the 2009 season or sad to see it coming

[jinftl]

It's something of a balancing act being a tropical weather enthusiast....there will be the 'season cancel' brigade on June 1st if we don't have a Cat 3 in the Gulf that day....on the other hand, there will be the 300-hours out model posse showing the inundation of Miami due to a rainshower currently over Dakar.

Every season, all it has ever taken is really one storm to ruin some communiy's day/week/month/year(s). While overall #s of tropcial storms, hurricanes, and majors are interesting and indicative of overall basin trends, it only took one Katrina to make a mark. The same could be a said of any number of infamous storms...Andrew, Hugo, etc.

I personally don't think that this season will be quite as quiet as some are expecting...i don't think the potential for a weak el nino will occur early enough in the season to have much of a dampening effect, except maybe as the season is winding down. I use 2004 as an example of a season where weak el nino was developing in September...the same month of the parade of storms in Florida. It would be different with a well-established el nino already in place by the peak of the season. But I don't expect it be a 2005 season either. It doesn't have to be to go down as infamous though. Average can be devestating...as can below average seasons like 1992.

Water temps will be warm enough, systems will traverse the atlantic and emerge in waters closer to our shores. It will be a question of 'location location location' to see if the ridge and/or trough in place at the time will steer something our way or out to sea/someone else's backyard. Patterns are constantly changing....if a system is in the wrong place at the wrong time, it could end up becoming a menace that makes landfall.

Vigilence and information are key. What would make me sad to see about the upcoming season? It will be sad if folks continue to disregard evacuation warnings and storm surge forecasts and instead rely on past storm experience and misguided beliefs on their level of personal safety in an area that is not safe. It would make me sad to hear people in Tampa don't evacuate because of the 'tampa hurricane shield' myth. It would make me sad to hear that 20,000 remain on Galveston Island (or any other coastal surge zone in the U.S.) if a 100 mph storm with a publicized 20-foot storm surge threatens. It would make me sad to learn that folks are deciding that staying in a home a few blocks inland which is 10 feet above sea level when a 20 foot surge is forecast feel safe and confident in that decision.

[gatorcane]

It's something of a balancing act being a tropical weather enthusiast....there will be the 'season cancel' brigade on June 1st if we don't have a Cat 3 in the Gulf that day....on the other hand, there will be the 300-hours out model posse showing the inundation of Miami due to a rainshower currently over Dakar.

Every season, all it has ever taken is really one storm to ruin some communiy's day/week/month/year(s). While overall #s of tropcial storms, hurricanes, and majors are interesting and indicative of overall basin trends, it only took one Katrina to make a mark. The same could be a said of any number of infamous storms...Andrew, Hugo, etc.

I personally don't think that this season will be quite as quiet as some are expecting...i don't think the potential for a weak el nino will occur early enough in the season to have much of a dampening effect, except maybe as the season is winding down. I use 2004 as an example of a season where weak el nino was developing in September...the same month of the parade of storms in Florida. It would be different with a well-established el nino already in place by the peak of the season. But I don't expect it be a 2005 season either. It doesn't have to be to go down as infamous though. Average can be devestating...as can below average seasons like 1992.

Water temps will be warm enough, systems will traverse the atlantic and emerge in waters closer to our shores. It will be a question of 'location location location' to see if the ridge and/or trough in place at the time will steer something our way or out to sea/someone else's backyard. Patterns are constantly changing....if a system is in the wrong place at the wrong time, it could end up becoming a menace that makes landfall.

Vigilence and information are key. What would make me sad to see about the upcoming season? It will be sad if folks continue to disregard evacuation warnings and storm surge forecasts and instead rely on past storm experience and misguided beliefs on their level of personal safety in an area that is not safe. It would make me sad to hear people in Tampa don't evacuate because of the 'tampa hurricane shield' myth. It would make me sad to hear that 20,000 remain on Galveston Island (or any other coastal surge zone in the U.S.) if a 100 mph storm with a publicized 20-foot storm surge threatens. It would make me sad to learn that folks are deciding that staying in a home a few blocks inland which is 10 feet above sea level when a 20 foot surge is forecast feel safe and confident in that decision.

This is an excellent post, thanks jinftl

[vbhoutex]

It's something of a balancing act being a tropical weather enthusiast....there will be the 'season cancel' brigade on June 1st if we don't have a Cat 3 in the Gulf that day....on the other hand, there will be the 300-hours out model posse showing the inundation of Miami due to a rainshower currently over Dakar.

Every season, all it has ever taken is really one storm to ruin some communiy's day/week/month/year(s). While overall #s of tropcial storms, hurricanes, and majors are interesting and indicative of overall basin trends, it only took one Katrina to make a mark. The same could be a said of any number of infamous storms...Andrew, Hugo, etc.

I personally don't think that this season will be quite as quiet as some are expecting...i don't think the potential for a weak el nino will occur early enough in the season to have much of a dampening effect, except maybe as the season is winding down. I use 2004 as an example of a season where weak el nino was developing in September...the same month of the parade of storms in Florida. It would be different with a well-established el nino already in place by the peak of the season. But I don't expect it be a 2005 season either. It doesn't have to be to go down as infamous though. Average can be devestating...as can below average seasons like 1992.

Water temps will be warm enough, systems will traverse the atlantic and emerge in waters closer to our shores. It will be a question of 'location location location' to see if the ridge and/or trough in place at the time will steer something our way or out to sea/someone else's backyard. Patterns are constantly changing....if a system is in the wrong place at the wrong time, it could end up becoming a menace that makes landfall.

Vigilence and information are key. What would make me sad to see about the upcoming season? It will be sad if folks continue to disregard evacuation warnings and storm surge forecasts and instead rely on past storm experience and misguided beliefs on their level of personal safety in an area that is not safe. It would make me sad to hear people in Tampa don't evacuate because of the 'tampa hurricane shield' myth. It would make me sad to hear that 20,000 remain on Galveston Island (or any other coastal surge zone in the U.S.) if a 100 mph storm with a publicized 20-foot storm surge threatens. It would make me sad to learn that folks are deciding that staying in a home a few blocks inland which is 10 feet above sea level when a 20 foot surge is forecast feel safe and confident in that decision.

This is an excellent post, thanks jinftl

BRAVO!!BRAVO!!! Standing ovation.

[Stormcenter]

I hate to keep on saying it but I will anyway. It only takes ONE major storm to ruin or end someone's life. The number of storms means nothing to me. It's the ones that actually affect my region that does. I still think 2009 will be less active for my (GOM) region. The East coast may see more activity but nothing extreme. JMHO