Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30

[KatDaddy]

In his Saturday morning blog he is thinking the WGOM may have development. This is based on the timing of the MJO pulse and warmer SST in the WGOM. We shall see.
Personally not ready for another hurricane season after IKE.

[somethingfunny]

We need the rain. I'm all in favor of a weak early-season tropical storm.

[vbhoutex]

In his Saturday morning blog he is thinking the WGOM may have development. This is based on the timing of the MJO pulse and warmer SST in the WGOM. We shall see.
Personally not ready for another hurricane season after IKE.

I'll second and third that and call it a UNANIMOUS VOTE AGAINST another hurricane season!!!!! We do need the rain in Texas still, but nothing more than a wet depression please!!!!

I haven't gone back and checked what I posted about when and where it will start this season, but IIRC I think I called for that time frame and BOC or WGOM.

[Category 5]

GOM in june? thats a bold prediction.

[vbhoutex]

GOM in june? thats a bold prediction.

Why is that a bold prediction? More than once I have see a TC form in the GOM in June, normally off the tail end of a stalled front, i.e cut off low forming.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GOM in june? thats a bold prediction.

Why is that a bold prediction? More than once I have see a TC form in the GOM in June, normally off the tail end of a stalled front, i.e cut off low forming.

Smiley implies some sarcasm, if I had to guess.

It is sort of bold, if the average June and July together combine for approx. one named storm. And mentioning 1957 is quite bold.


It may all be completely wrong, but is bold, at least the 1957 reference.

[margiek]

Think of it more as a marketing ploy than a prediction.

Accuweather has held a "hurricane summit" the last couple years in Houston around the May timeframe I believe. They are probably having another one this year.

Margie

[LaBreeze]

June can have some fairly strong storms - anyone remember Audrey in 1957? I certainly do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

June can have some fairly strong storms - anyone remember Audrey in 1957? I certainly do.

JB mentioned 1957 in particular.

I wasn't a twinkle yet in 1957. BTW, as Derek will tell you and has linked to, while Audrey may indeed have been a major hurricane during its life, it almost certainly weakened with a widening windfield, and produced all that storm surge flooding in Cameron Parish ( I lived in Cameron parish for about two weeks in a trailer home on a drilling location, and have caught helicopters in Cameron) as probably only a Cat 1.


I don't know if upper winds or dry air intrusion played a role, but I'd assume the waters in the NW Gulf most years, especially in the shelf, would be marginal for supporting a major.

Last year the water was warm enough, but it is fairly shallow

[Ed Mahmoud]

From Jarvinen

Hurricane Audrey was a rare June hurricane that caused approximately 400 deaths in southwest Louisiana. Most of the deaths were due to the storm surge that was generated by a very broad wind field. Surprisingly, the SLOSH model maximum one-minute over the water winds, in this broad wind field were only about 85 to 90 miles per hour. The winds fall within the range of a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Scale (even though the estimated pressure at landfall was 955 millibars) generated a large and damaging storm surge over a wide area. The two dimensional extent of the storm surge was impressive. It extended along all of the Texas and Louisiana coasts and a portion of the Mississippi coast. Water elevations of 5 feet or higher were observed from just south of Freeport, Texas eastward to Cocodrie, Louisiana- a coastal distance of approximately of 310 statute miles. In Louisiana the storm surge spread 10 to 30 statute miles inland east of where the center made landfall. Much of this area is marsh land with elevations of only a few feet above sea level. The area is also punctuated by low ridgelines running east to west called cheniers. The cheniers are the remnants of ancient shorelines. They are largely composed of sand and almost all are located inland from the Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Most of the small towns and individual homes in this area are built on the cheniers.

[Stormcenter]

We are talking about over two months away! Heck they (weather experts) can't predict what the weather will be like two days from today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We are talking about over two months away! Heck they (weather experts) can't predict what the weather will be like two days from today.

It isn't like JB is picking a day, or even a week, or a US state. Just based on his apparent skill last year timing the remnants of MJO pulses, and his belief the WGOM will be warmer compared to average than the Caribbean, he thinks there is a better than average chance of a June development.

He could be wrong. But he isn't exactly the 'World Weekly News' end of the world/bat-boy predictions.

[Stormcenter]

Hey look I like JB so I'm not picking on him but predicting something to develop in the
W.GOM in June is almost as easy as saying it's going to snow somewhere in the NE U.S.
in December. We all know if anything is going to develop in June it more then likely will be in the GOM.

We are talking about over two months away! Heck they (weather experts) can't predict what the weather will be like two days from today.

It isn't like JB is picking a day, or even a week, or a US state. Just based on his apparent skill last year timing the remnants of MJO pulses, and his belief the WGOM will be warmer compared to average than the Caribbean, he thinks there is a better than average chance of a June development.

He could be wrong. But he isn't exactly the 'World Weekly News' end of the world/bat-boy predictions.

[cycloneye]

Any new statements from JB about WGOM development in June?

[brunota2003]

WGOM in June? I'm predicting severe weather this spring and summer, in central Kansas. now, where's all my money for my prediction?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any new statements from JB about WGOM development in June?

I mentioned in the "lost of rain in Puerto Rico" thread that JB last week said this was the remnant of an MJO pulse, and it was just too soon for development, but the next one would be latter half of June, and for some reason, he thinks WGOM will be warmer, relative to normals, than the Caribbean.


Overall, much slower season than last year, but development further West and North means we may get the JB Perfect Storm, a major moving due North or just West of North, just West of Delaware, driving 1938 Naragansett Bay type into Providence surge into Philadelphia area.


He hasn't actually mentioned his perfect storm recently, but the hints are in his discussions for one close in development early for Texas, and then several near misses or major hits from hurricanes on the Eastern seaboard. Earlier he seemed to favor 1957 as his favorite analog, now its 1951.

My parents hadn't even met yet in 1951...



Philadelphia 2009?

[HurricaneRobert]

Why does everyone say "we need the rain" or "I hope something waters my lawn"?

Did you miss the 10 inches of rain the other week?

[meteorologyman]

For Florida, afternoon showers may finally start on Tuesday though it will be isolated, however it is a start. With in a couple of weeks it will be more scattered.

I am fearing of another bad hurricane season as far as landfalls go. Bermuda High and ridge of High Pressure has been visiting close to land since that is why Florida and the Gulf has been, and still is, dry. However if the dry air remains in place, it will pretty much sufficate any storms/hurricanes. Though I know that may not last very long b/c of MJO phases and by the drought outlook. I hope the High does not persist in the same area for the coming months and that it moves away, I would prefer to watch fish storms.

I also noticed some storms firing up in Africa, it's fun watching those when there is nothing to watch.

Here is the link for Drought Outlook for U.S which is showing a very good bright sign of things except for California, and on/off for Texas.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... ought.html

[MGC]

I generally don't worry about the tropics until the end of July when the possibility of a major in the GOM is more possible. Of course you never know as Dennis struck NW Florida in early July 2005 as a Cat-3. MH Dennis IMO is the forgotten hurricane of 2005 being overshadowed by Katrina and Wilma. Hopefully it will be a quiet year landfall wise.....MGC

[KatDaddy]

Joe B posted Sunday stating there will be less GOM activity than last however he is worried the areas hit last year are more prone to be hit again this year which is the WGOM.