Vortex 2

[JonathanBelles]

I am very surprised that this hasnt been posted yet. Vortex 2 is starting on Sunday.

"VORTEX2 is by far the largest and most ambitious effort ever made to understand tornadoes. We expect over 100 scientists and crew in up to 40 science and support vehicles to participate in this unique, fully nomadic, field program in May/June 2009-2010. The National Science Foundation (NSF) foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) together are contributing over $10 million towards this effort. Participants will be drawn from several universities, and several government and private organizations, and will be international including members from Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia." (http://vortex2.org/home/)

I will be following this as much as I can. TWC is also on this project and will be doing a great deal of (worthy) coverage on this.

[vbhoutex]

I got a call from my old friend BarometerBob. He is going to be there for the first week. I would love to be in on this but without a job I can't justify the expense involved.
I was looking at the info on it this morning and it is a huge and ambitious project. I hope they are successful and safe!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per TWC, spent last evening in Custer County, Oklahoma, thinking the Western Oklahoma/Texas Pandhandle area would be their best shot today, although Dr. Forbes gives them a limited chance of tornado success.

SWODY1 has a very small 5% area in extreme SE Texas Panhandle.

...WEST TX/WRN OK...
A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
TO NEAR MAF. STRONG HEATING IN THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON
MLCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PRONOUNCED CAP
WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION QUITE SPARSE. HOWEVER...A
COMBINATION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CAP...SLIGHT OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...AND ENHANCED FORCING ALONG
THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS TX MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
BASES OF THOSE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP FROM LBB SOUTHWARD.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tomorrow may be a more promising day, if they get back to Central Oklahoma. Maybe EWG can get pictures of tornadoes with DOW trucks in frame.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE SRN EXTENTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE SWD ACROSS WRN MO...SE KS INTO NRN OK WITH A DEEPLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...GOOD CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST FORCING SHOULD BE TO THE
NORTHEAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NERN OK AND SW MO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR TO ABOUT 45 KT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AFFECTS THE AREA. THIS ALONG
WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER THAN FURTHER NORTHEAST DUE TO A FURTHER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like new 12Z NAM fires up some dry line storms from somewhere in the LBB area down past MAF.


Vernon, TX forecast sounding, has a cap but is breakable, good instability, decent low level shear, cloud bases a little higher than might be preferred.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tomorrow, while there should be severe weather all the way to near Chicago, slower moving storms, and proximity to today's chasing in SW Oklahoma or the Eastern Texas Panhandle, suggests near home, OUN/OKC may be the spot for tornadic storms developing very late afternoon.


NAM shows intense precip amounts in OKC area in 3 hour period between 7 pm and 10 pm.

Scary looking sounding per NAM. And the mid level instability and lapse rates implied by a Total Total over 60 suggests very large hail, windshield and roof destroyers, also very possible.

If GFS is similar, I'd expand MODERATE RISK on SWODY2 (as is sort of hinted at in early morning SWODY2) down into Oklahoma.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS forecast today for Northwest, TX and extreme SW Panhandle area - again, Vernon, TX




Edit to add satellite page

Vortex 2 on Face Book mentioned low clouds and fog. That will certainly limit heating, but could also set up good differential heating. SPS is (T/Td) 69ºF/64ºF in the clouds, ABI is 85/62ºF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe I should sign up for Twitter or Face Book.



Vortex 2 Facebook Page.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Vernon has broken into sun, Childress should soon. But Holy Differential Heating Batman- upper 70s there, 92ºF in Abilene.


18Z RUC shows the cap holds solid in the West Texas/SW Oklahoma area through this evening, no precip at all...

[JonathanBelles]

As of this morning they were dealing with fog so thick the Satellites couldnt push through.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As of this morning they were dealing with fog so thick the Satellites couldnt push through.

Burn, baby, burn...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some of those clouds on the dry side of the dry line in New Mexico are producing radar echoes. Probably virga, but there must be a disturbance headed for the dry line.


I believe SWODY1 at 1630 mentioned it. OK, mentioned again on 2000 SWODY1.

5% tornado area shifted a tad West, into the Northern Permian Basin/Central and Eastern Panhandle South of AMA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Mesoscale Discussion copied and pasted on 2009 Severe Thread


Gist- severe storms with high bases may form soon in Permian Basin/lower Panhandle, but tornado risk is low where places really got hot and got a big temperature/Td spread, so if one is specifically looking for tornadoes, one needs to be where the fog and low clouds burned off last. Lowest cloud bases.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per twitter, they are somewhere in Oklahoma...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN KS AND NERN INTO CENTRAL/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132021Z - 132145Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE BY 21-23Z OVER PORTIONS OF
SRN/SERN KS AND NRN INTO CENTRAL/WRN OK. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A WW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A S/W TROUGH PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET SAMPLED
BY NLG PROFILER. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT POSITIONED
FROM ROUGHLY STJ TO ICT TO GAG AT 19Z IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SAGGING SWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO NRN AND WRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG SLY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF OK VEER TO SWLY ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THEN NLY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODIFIED 18Z OUN SOUNDING
FOR A TEMPERATURE OF 90 AND DEWPOINT IN THE UPPER 60S YIELDS OVER
3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...A WARM CAPPING INVERSION STILL
RESIDES NEAR 700 MB...EVIDENT BY STABLE CUMULUS FIELD IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHORT TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPPER
WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
ERODE/LIFT THE CAPPING INVERSION BY 23Z...RESULTING IN INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM SERN/SRN KS INTO NRN/WRN
OK.

CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MO INTO SERN/SRN KS AND
NRN OK IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TOWARD LINEAR RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE DISCRETE
ACTIVITY MAY EXIST OVER WRN OK. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE CAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KT INVOF THE FRONT MAY FAVOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
INITIALLY...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE-VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONG FRONTAL FORCING WILL FAVOR
STORM TYPE TRANSITION TOWARD BOWS AND LEWPS WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER
INITIATION...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 05/13/2009


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z OUN sounding- looks fairly favorable...




Still some cap, but if cap can break before cold front arrives and drives more linear storms, ie, discrete storms, boatloads enough instability and low level shear for tornadoes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

They followed the wrong cell last night, the one about 50 miles further North produced a tornado caught on video by a TV station and a funnel cloud.

[jasons2k]

It made the front page of CNN...


Shot at 2009-05-14

[Ed Mahmoud]

Uh-oh (for them, not for Kansas farmers...)

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD INTO THE
ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY/DAY 4 AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT
LOCALIZED. BEYOND DAY 4...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...AN EXTENSIVE REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2009

[Frank2]

What a dud (10 days and not one tornado sighting) - at this moment Mike Bettes (TWC) is talking about sun screen...

Ironically, had the field scientists started one month earlier, they would have gotten bushels of data - I can't understand why they started so late, since anyone knows that the plains tornado season begins to become more isolated at this time of year...

It's mankind's mistake to put weather on a timetable (as we often found out during the annual hurricane research field program) - as once said on Touched by an Angel, "You'd be surprised who's really in charge..." - God won't be denied, thankfully...

Frank2

[somethingfunny]

Ironically, had the field scientists started one month earlier, they would have gotten bushels of data - I can't understand why they started so late, since anyone knows that the plains tornado season begins to become more isolated at this time of year...

Frank2

That might be why....an isolated supercell producing a tornado would be easier to track than one that's rain-wrapped within a line of storms. Or not, since we had plenty of tornadic supercells popping ahead of the main lines earlier this spring. *shrug* There's bound to be a pattern change eventually....before June 15 when the project ends, I hope.