2009 Severe Weather thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wrote a bit more aboout this on the EWG storm chasing thread.

[img]WUUS54 KFWD 082144
SVRFWD
TXC363-429-503-082230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0178.090508T2144Z-090508T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
444 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK BY 500 PM
[/img]

[somethingfunny]

Thunderstorms moving into my location.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC097-181-090400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0200.090509T0305Z-090509T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1005 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF CALLISBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CALLISBURG AND GAINESVILLE BY 1040 PM
EISENHOWER STATE PARK BY 1050 PM
POTTSBORO BY 1055 PM
WHITESBORO BY 1100 PM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

I live by the Circled + Sign near Denison. The ImageShack Toolbar is frustrating me, otherwise I'd have posted a non-refreshing image. The cell to my west near St. Jo and Nacona is under a Tornado Warning but it hasn't been confirmed on the ground as of yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091552Z - 091715Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO VT
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 17Z.

AT MID-DAY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SRN ONTARIO
SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP EAST INTO NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
HAS SPREAD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE
SLOWING DIABATIC HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT SUFFICIENT BREAKS EXIST TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NWRN PORTIONS OF NY BY
16Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. AN 80+ KT UPPER JET MAX ATTENDING THE
GREAT LAKES IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A SWLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. BULK SHEAR OF
50+ KT AND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2009

I was stationed in Upstate New York, living in Saratoga Springs, back in 1984-85, arriving the last week of the Summer horse season. Upstate does tend to get better t-storms than Long Island, as a rule, just from my brief warm season experience.

Seven months total, was going to be assigned to the "rodless wonder", MARF, (aka "Merely Awaiting Reactor Fill"), but they had a S/G tubing leak, and my class delayed a planned workover at D1G by six months. There were places in the plant at D1G, where one could access while critical, ie, not inside the RC, where three hours exposure would result in exceeding the limit for a quarter.

Matter of fact, Naval Reactors used 10% of the NRC's radiation limits, sort of a super bonus safety factor. Except at D1G, where they fully expected people to bump up against NRC limits during the workover.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Severe T-Storm Watch 280 for much of Upstate New York and part of Western Vermont.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Severe T-Storm Watch for much of Virginia and North Carolina.

(I hope Darlington, SC is spared any rain late today/this evening)

[brunota2003]

There is another watch for Central NC/VA now too...and I am just NE of Watertown, we had some storms roll in just a few minutes ago...was really squally, but nothing severe (it was severe warned for 60 mph winds and penny sized hail). I'd guess winds were prolly 35 mph or so.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, post-frontal...
ETA El Dorado is 83ºF and South of the front, so the possible tornado could indeed be close enough to the front to be surface based.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

ARC057-061-073-081-091-133-TXC037-092015-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-090509T2015Z/
LITTLE RIVER AR-HEMPSTEAD AR-SEVIER AR-HOWARD AR-LAFAYETTE AR-
MILLER AR-BOWIE TX-
242 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR BOWIE...
MILLER...LAFAYETTE...HOWARD...SEVIER...HEMPSTEAD AND LITTLE RIVER
COUNTIES...

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FULTON...OR 14
MILES WEST OF HOPE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTH OF OAKHAVEN BY 300 PM CDT...
HOPE AND 8 MILES NORTH OF PATMOS BY 305 PM CDT...
PERRYTOWN BY 310 PM CDT...

Miller County is TXK. I know that because I have worked in Lafayette county, which is dry, so to drink beer I had to go to TXK.

[brunota2003]

From the Fort Drum wx station from the severe storm earlier today:

Date: 09
Time: 13:55
Wind: W 9 G 54
Visibility: 0.25
Weather: Thunderstorm Rain Hail Fog
Clouds: FEW005 SCT016 OVC046
Temp: 59
Dewpoint: 58
Pressure in Inches: 29.48
Millibars: 998.3
1 hour rainfall: 0.53

[brunota2003]

I had to post this, well, because I just had to:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009

FLC095-122045-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090512T2045Z/
ORANGE-
401 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 359 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SEA WORLD....MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DOCTOR
PHILLIPS...WINDERMERE...MAGIC KINGDOM...VINELAND...LAKE BUENA
VISTA...EPCOT...HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS AND ANIMAL KINGDOM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 8162 2861 8136 2834 8128 2835 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 007DEG 9KT 2846 8150

$$

52



and OT, but I'm going to Sea World memorial day weekend most likely

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX INTO THE PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122043Z - 122145Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN TX INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
THROUGH W TX IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETREATING
N THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN
OK ERODES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS N OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX HAS RESULTED
IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND INTO THE 90S...AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. COMBINATION OF
DESTABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE EMANATING OUT OF MEXICO/FAR W TX/SRN NEW MEXICO HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION INVOF ROW AND HOB NM SWD
TOWARD FST IN TX. AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT CONTINUES MOVING ENE INTO W
TX AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HIGH BASED
STORMS MAY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY.

INITIAL HIGH BASED ACTIVITY SPREADING E THROUGH ERN NM AND SW TX MAY
INITIALLY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...GIVEN THE HOT/DRY WELL MIXED
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. FARTHER E...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHEN
MODIFIED FOR AREA SURFACE CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /AROUND 30
KT PER TCU PROFILER/...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE
LARGE CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. SURFACE OBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS RESULTING IN
FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT WITH STORMS OCCURRING E OF THE DRYLINE.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG AND N OF A LBB-LTS LINE...WHERE CLOUD
COVER LASTED LONGER...LIMITING STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS STORMS MATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE BY 03Z AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO
40 KT.

..GARNER.. 05/12/2009

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
728 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THEDFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN HOOKER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT/715 PM MDT/

* AT 627 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
HIGHWAY 97 CROSSING THE DISMAL RIVER...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF
MULLEN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HIGHWAY 83 CROSSING THE DISMAL RIVER BY 815 PM CDT...

[RL3AO]

MDT risk for hail today.

[Category 5]

I've been watching this cell and its really rotating now.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC179-393-152215-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0003.090515T2129Z-090515T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MIAMI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CODMAN...OR ABOUT 14
MILES WEST OF MIAMI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. TRAINED SPOTTERS
HAVE REPORTED A DEVELOPING WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CODMAN...
MIAMI...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 10055 3545 10088 3575 10098 3583 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 317DEG 14KT 3575 10088

$$

[RL3AO]

Texas cell

[Ed Mahmoud]

latest:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
524 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TXC179-152245-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090515T2245Z/
GRAY TX-
524 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
GRAY COUNTY...

AT 523 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.
THE MOST DANGEROUS PORTION OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LEFORS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES. LEFORS LIES DIRECTLY IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEFORS...
PAMPA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS,


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
455 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 13 W MIAMI 35.69N 100.87W
05/15/2009 ROBERTS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A TORNADO EAST OF HIGHWAY 70 JUST
SOUTH OF FM 282


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01385

$$

SFJ



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NWUS54 KAMA 152151
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
450 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 8 N PAMPA 35.66N 100.96W
05/15/2009 M2.75 INCH ROBERTS TX AMATEUR RADIO

BROKEN WINDSHIELD


&&

[Category 5]

check the other thread on this outbreak

[RL3AO]

GFS is showing ridging/zonal flow into June. Could change, but if the GFS is correct, May will end with a wimper SVR Wx wise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

TXC479-260315-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090526T0315Z/
WEBB-
1002 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 1001 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST
LAREDO...NEAR U.S. 59 AND LOOP 20...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE CITY OF LAREDO AND DESTRUCTIVE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[RL3AO]

Slight risk today. SPC has tagged an area for day 5 (Saturday).

[RL3AO]

Looks like the on switch is being turned on.