Florida Weather

[JonathanBelles]

Today's rain coverage is difinitely more than the 10-20% coverage that both tpa & mlb offices were giving for central fl, IMO. They completely blew off the NAM which was showing it since Sat.

I agree. Much greater coverage than the NWS had, however the news stations were closer.


Cool wind coming from the E/NE right now.

[NDG]

GFS'S potential rainfall estimate for Monday through Friday of next week, most of the peninsula in the 1-3" range.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man would that be nice.....Ive gotten 5 drops in the last 2 days of storms around me...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
click on the storm totals...many small cores got 4-6 inches of rain!
Go to the MLB site...some areas 10 inches plus over south FL....
6-8 inches elsewhere....
only a trace at my house...okay maybe .02-.03...not much
It might finally be the rainy season.

[gatorcane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
click on the storm totals...many small cores got 4-6 inches of rain!
Go to the MLB site...some areas 10 inches plus over south FL....
6-8 inches elsewhere....
only a trace at my house...okay maybe .02-.03...not much
It might finally be the rainy season.

Nearly all of the heavy rain in Southern FL fell where nobody lives in the middle of the Everglades. Most people just saw the high cirro-stratus overhead from the large cells where the higher cloud tops were sheared off to the east (wind shear is very strong still and it is blowing from WSW to ENE).

The Everglades are dry though and do need the rain. Nearly everybody's lawns in Southern FL still are as dry as a bone and desperately need the rain.

[NDG]

Yeap, I agree. Starting yesterday through the next couple of days is probably at least a soft start to the rainy season, not probably anticipated by many, with a full blown episode next week.

[gatorcane]

Good morning all. As advertised, widely scattered showers with some thunder are affecting the East Coast terminals this AM mostly from about Lake Worth area south through Boca Raton in Palm Beach County.

Other showers and isolated storms are developing out over the Gulf Stream and are moving WNW. We are currently under transition across Florida as deep high pressure is building rapidly down the Eastern US while a cold front if fizzling out over Northern Florida. This High will park itself in the Western Atlantic west of the GA to FL border ushering in fresh easterly breezes for the East Coast of Florida, keeping temps comfortably cooler than what we have been seeing.

Expect numerous strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon across the inland areas of FL as seabreezes collide but should be able to move West towards the West Coast terminals of Ft. Myers, Sarasota, and Tampa...and maybe even the beaches of Pinellas County in Tampa. The nature coast should see plentiful showers...

It will be like August out there today with the pattern we are on.

I continue to look at runs of the GFS, as it continues to show a significant rain event next week at this time for peninsula Florida. The 06Z run out a few hours ago seems a bit suspect, as it shows a tropical storm moving into SW Florida and then through Southern FL before it retrogrades back west parking itself into the Eastern GOM for over 5 days. Will dismiss this run for now and go with increased rain chances starting Tues. of next week. Stay tuned.

[boca]

I looked at the 00z GFS run and they had that low developing in the western Bahamas then moving NNE out into the Atlantic.The 06z has it retrograding into the EGOM.Lets see what the 12z brings us.The model might be smelling glue,but on its defense its in the medium range this time.The NWS in Miami makes no mention of this senario for next week yet.

[JonathanBelles]

HWO....


...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. RATHER
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
IN ADDITION FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTERLY WIND FLOW TODAY THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD HANG CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THIS IS WHERE
THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD SET UP MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY TODAY. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL
THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

MARINER SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY
DRIFT WEST INTO THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS.

[gatorcane]

I looked at the 00z GFS run and they had that low developing in the western Bahamas then moving NNE out into the Atlantic.The 06z has it retrograding into the EGOM.Lets see what the 12z brings us.The model might be smelling glue,but on its defense its in the medium range this time.The NWS in Miami makes no mention of this senario for next week yet.

The 00Z run moves this weak low and all of the rainfall with it right through Southern FL. Are you looking at an old run?

Note this is only 126 hours from now:


the 06Z run is much more aggressive with the rainfall. This would be wonderful if it verified:

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The Everglades are dry though and do need the rain. Nearly everybody's lawns in Southern FL still are as dry as a bone and desperately need the rain.

When it comes to drought folks are always concerned with the lawn. However the bigger issue is the water table levels are down near 10% in some places, 10-30% in others. Lake O is several feet down from normal and if this doesn't ease up soon the whole entire southern half of the state is gonna spontaneously burst into flame.

Either that or you turn the tap on and nothing comes out.

[Evil Jeremy]

I am looking at the forecast, and after the big batch of strong storms yesterday and today's morning rain in some areas, think the rainy season started? It looks like it.

[gatorcane]

I am looking at the forecast, and after the big batch of strong storms yesterday and today's morning rain in some areas, think the rainy season started? It looks like it.

Yes I think it has started. Usually NWS Miami mentions that it has in a discussion. They may be waiting for the big surge of moisture into Southern FL as shown by the GFS...which will happen 5 days from now...to officially say it has started.

[NDG]

I am eager to see 12z run of both gfs & euro. 06z gfs looks legit to me if 00z run of euro sypnotic set up for next week is correct, by wanting to rebuild a ridge in the Carolinas it would swing the low pressure that the gfs develops back to the GOM.

[Sanibel]

Thunderheads to the east yesterday in a regular diurnal rainy pattern. Wish I could post a digital picture.


Dry here.

[JonathanBelles]

I would not call this the rainy season at all. There is a front hanging over the state bringing in showers. This is not mainly heat driven.

[NDG]

True, there is a frontal boundary in the area, but most of the storms in the peninsula for the last couple of days have been developed by the land heat and or coliding seabreezes. What the frontal boundary along with the accompany upper level trough that have come into our area have done is weakened the mid level cap that we had for so long that was keeping us dry for so long. We could be in the middle of the rainy season, and if a strong cap is pressent in the mid levels of the atmosphere we would be bone dry for the most part, no matter how hot and humid it is.

Notice how storms yesterday developed inland away from bodies of water from central FL down to parts of S FL, this is mostly rising hot & humid air lifted by east and west coasts seabreezes, very little work done by the frontal boundary in the northern part of the state other than what I stated of weakening the mid level ridge that we had.

[JonathanBelles]

The front broke the cap, and provided the moisture. All the state did was add in the heat. Water temps are not warm enough quite yet everywhere. I dont think this is true rainy season weather. The mechanisms are right, but the mechanics are not.

[artist]

The Everglades are dry though and do need the rain. Nearly everybody's lawns in Southern FL still are as dry as a bone and desperately need the rain.

When it comes to drought folks are always concerned with the lawn. However the bigger issue is the water table levels are down near 10% in some places, 10-30% in others. Lake O is several feet down from normal and if this doesn't ease up soon the whole entire southern half of the state is gonna spontaneously burst into flame.

Either that or you turn the tap on and nothing comes out.

I know I worry about the water tables as we are on well! BUT, I think some that mention their lawns ARE thinking about the combustion factor, as if it crackles when you walk on it, from being so dry, how easily it could go up in flames from a spark off anything or from lightning. Or how the uncleared areas will do the same.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Small cumulus clouds are finally starting to gain height
right over Tampa Bay...no rain yet....but chances
look good for rain today, as well as next week
with the gulf low forecasted by the GFS...
it would be very interesting if it becomes
tropical...but there is too much shear...
so it will probably be frontal.