SPC eyeing another Illinois/Mizzou derecho Wednesday.

[bsuwx]

sounds like the vortex II project will have a narrow time frame to jump on the train.

[bsuwx]

does anyone have any insight as to why we aren't seeing much in the way of convection in IA/IL/MO? not enough surface heating? or did the weakening vortmax fail to erode the cap? a combination? its getting late...is this a bust for the midwest?

[Ed Mahmoud]

does anyone have any insight as to why we aren't seeing much in the way of convection in IA/IL/MO? not enough surface heating? or did the weakening vortmax fail to erode the cap? a combination? its getting late...is this a bust for the midwest?

It isn't even 4 pm yet, solar time...

Springfield, MO, my amatuer pick city for tornadoes last night, for closer to 7 pm, is still warming. And has winds around 20 mph.

Anyway, 3 hour precip fields from 12Z GFS suggest big show starts sometime between now and 7 pm CDT.

ETA:

Northern Missouri is starting to pick up:

[bsuwx]

new d1 outlook does shave back the MDT risk area to about decatur, IL
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


you are right, nw MO is starting to initiate, but ww#294 hasn't had any svr/tor.

warnings now popping up in IA, KS

[badger70]

does anyone have any insight as to why we aren't seeing much in the way of convection in IA/IL/MO? not enough surface heating? or did the weakening vortmax fail to erode the cap? a combination? its getting late...is this a bust for the midwest?

It's been cloudy here (KCMI), but the sky is lightening up. I'm anticipating a late wx night.

[bsuwx]

TWC reporting WW (svr tstorm) for MO/KS, can't find it online yet


here we go http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0295.html

[badger70]

TWC reporting WW (svr tstorm) for MO/KS, can't find it online yet

Is that the cell by Emporia? if so:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC111-139-132245-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0068.090513T2153Z-090513T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
453 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR READING...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF EMPORIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
READING...
OSAGE CITY...
MELVERN LAKE...
OLIVET...
EISENHOWER STATE PARK...
LYNDON...
MELVERN...
POMONA STATE PARK...
POMONA LAKE...
QUENEMO...

[bsuwx]

SVR WW down to OK

[bsuwx]

finally a spin up in MO

000
WFUS53 KEAX 132215
TOREAX
MOC001-171-197-211-132245-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0011.090513T2215Z-090513T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
515 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN CITY...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MILAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
QUEEN CITY AND GREENTOP AROUND 545 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GREEN
CASTLE AND WORTHINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES
OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE... LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...
SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO SAFETY
INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.

[bsuwx]

spotter reports tornado on the ground with this cell now (via TWC)

txt warning update only mentions funnel

[badger70]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 536 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
NOVINGER...OR 11 MILES WEST OF KIRKSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NOVINGER AROUND 545 PM CDT.
KIRKSVILLE AROUND 555 PM CDT.

[badger70]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 536 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
NOVINGER...OR 11 MILES WEST OF KIRKSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NOVINGER AROUND 545 PM CDT.
KIRKSVILLE AROUND 555 PM CDT.

Chaser ChaseTheStorms.com was showing live feed.

http://www.abcactionnews.com/content/we ... fault.aspx

[bsuwx]

LIVE STREAM chaser ben holcomb positioned to intercept in NE MO! #tornado has caused damage in kirksville, mo. http://u.nu/9vi5 !!


tornado is def. rain wrapped, could see some horizonal inflow

[bsuwx]

live video of oklahoma tornado! http://u.nu/4zi5

[TYNI]

live video of oklahoma tornado! http://u.nu/4zi5

Thanks for this guys - more exciting than the Penguins/Capitals game at the moment... I live my dream through the web!

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
735 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 735 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANTON...AND MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON...MENDON...CAMP POINT...GOLDEN...CLAYTON...MEYER...LIMA...
LORAINE...WOODVILLE...CHATTON AND LA PRAIRIE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
740 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT.

* AT 740 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR GREGORY LANDING...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF CANTON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREGORY LANDING AROUND 745 PM CDT...
TIOGA AND SUTTER AROUND 805 PM CDT...
STILLWELL AND WEST POINT AROUND 825 PM CDT...
DENVER AROUND 835 PM CDT...
BOWEN AROUND 840 PM CDT...
AUGUSTA AROUND 845 PM CDT...

[Dave]

ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-
743 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 742 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CANTON...AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY F AND E. THIS
TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MENDON...CAMP POINT...GOLDEN...CLAYTON...MEYER...LIMA...LORAINE...
WOODVILLE...CHATTON AND LA PRAIRIE.

[Dave]

BOURBON KS-
751 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR BOURBON
COUNTY...

AT 749 PM CDT...THE BOURBON COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OBSERVED A TORNADO AT COUNTY ROAD 135 AND OSAGE ROAD...OR 4 MILES
NORTH NORTHEAST OF REDFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT SCOTT BY 805 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF MARMATON IS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Last shot of the evening. Stay safe folks...