Joe Bastardi 2009 updated forecast=10/6/2

[cycloneye]

His three reasons for a low numbers forecast are El Nino,Below average ssts and African Dust.He also says,the U.S. may have a landfall of a major cane.Read his updated forecast at link below.



http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... ?#extremes

[somethingfunny]

Definitely have to save that image for when our first Cape Verde storm appears.

[cycloneye]

Definitely have to save that image for when our first Cape Verde storm appears.

I for one who lives in the hurricane belt,am worried about complacency of those who live in the islands when they see that.

[Bailey1777]

Here's my question not only with JB but Dr. Gray and others. What is the sense in making their early season forecast why not wait until the last minute before the season starts when you will have so much more and up to date info on how things are playing out?

[somethingfunny]

Here's my question not only with JB but Dr. Gray and others. What is the sense in making their early season forecast why not wait until the last minute before the season starts when you will have so much more and up to date info on how things are playing out?

Why make a seasonal forecast at all? We all know it only takes one storm. A low forecast lulls people into complacency, and a high forecast leads to higher insurance premiums and dumb decisions like when Florida pre-emptively drained the top off of Lake Okeechobee in 2006. And most of the time, they're wrong. It's a neat intellectual excercise but completely worthless to publish in my opinion.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where the storms go is much more important than the number of storms
IMO...1992 El Nino had only 7 but one was Andrew...Cat 5 into SE FL.

[Derek Ortt]

let me get this straight... with NEUTRAL conditions he is calling for a WELL BELOW AVERAGE SEASON?

dear God! And projecting SAL now? Give me a break! it is known that tropical waves often trigger the SAL outbreaks, though SAL decreases as we approach the heart of the season. The reaosn you may ask? The temp contrast between the land and sea is reduced

[Derek Ortt]

His three reasons for a low numbers forecast are El Nino,Below average ssts and African Dust.He also says,the U.S. may have a landfall of a major cane.Read his updated forecast at link below.



http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... ?#extremes

PLEASE!

apparently Joey forgets that 2004 also had a weak el nino. 2006 and 2002 also had CV storms. I strongly encourage people to use that accuwx forecast for entertainment purposes only!

[Bailey1777]

I agree Derek and I find it to be presumptious and irresponsible to put out a graphic for the 2009 season that shows the entire caribean and half of the mid atlantic as cut off from storms.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What are the chances of a 1997 like El Nino this year?

[jinftl]

I would estimate the likelihood of another 1997-98 el nino is akin to another 2005 hurricane season taking place in the next few years...these are outlier, once or twice every 50 year type events from all accounts.

We are not in el nino conditons at this point....enso neutral is the current state (5/11/09 SST anomaly in nino region 3.4 = +0.2 C. The range from -0.5 C to +0.5 C is enso neutral and most models show enso neutral through at least july/august....we were well into el nino by that time of the year in 1997....highest anomalies since 1950 during the summer of 1997....more than 2.0 C above normal-page 25 of pdf file below)
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

A repeat of that el nino strength this hurricane season would amount to one of the biggest forecast blunders by both national and international weather agenices in recent memory (most of which suggest enso neutral transitioning to weak el nino....a la 2004 in terms of potential strength and timing, none show a 1997-98 event as even an outlier worth factoring in as of last updates).

What are the chances of a 1997 like El Nino this year?

[NDG]

I do not agree with JB, but lets remember that 2004 even though had a weak El Nino develop in the heart of the season, much of the tropical Atlantic's SSTs were well above average. But who knows, there is still plenty of time for the waters to warm up with a dying Azores high by then. All in all I do not care much for seasonal outlooks more than a month out, lol.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree with J.B. It sounds resonable. Looking at all the factors. Cooler SST's due to stronger High and that creates more SAL. El Nino in what ever form looks to be coming by latter summer. I hope he's right. We need a quiet year. But then again Andrew was a quiet year.

[KatDaddy]

Lets hope his concern for the WGOM and Texas Coast early in the season pan out to be nothing. I could not imagine a hurricane threat so early in the season and so sooon after IKE.

[Evil Jeremy]

I like where he points to where storms "may develop". This is the Atlantic, they can develop anywhere. Maybe if he put those were the areas where storms would "most likely develop", but he seems to be saying that if there are storms, they will be coming from those areas. And a season cancel for the Caribbean? Really JB?

[gatorcane]

His three reasons for a low numbers forecast are El Nino,Below average ssts and African Dust.He also says,the U.S. may have a landfall of a major cane.Read his updated forecast at link below.



http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... ?#extremes

PLEASE!

apparently Joey forgets that 2004 also had a weak el nino. 2006 and 2002 also had CV storms. I strongly encourage people to use that accuwx forecast for entertainment purposes only!

I can't believe he would display that graphic with Caribbean "cutoff" from storms. I know he is trying to say that El Nino is going to cause shear across the entire Caribbean, but look at 2004 (an El nino year) when Charley ripped through the Caribbean, developing in the Eastern Caribbean of all places.

He is likely going to be very wrong with that prediction. Anybody reading that graphic is going to think that "if I am in the Caribbean I am safe." That is why JB is for entertainment only.

Here is 2004 during an El nino, look at how UNSAFE the Caribbean was and how CUTOFF it was NOT:

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think AccuWx has a graphics department which put that out. JB is in Houston for some conference this week, maybe he didn't see it.


As likely as not, at least one storm crosses the Caribbean this year, I suppose, but I doubt any islanders will completely ignore the weather this upcoming season based on one AccuWx graphic.

I'd hope not.


JB could be right, he has 1983 as an analog year

[Category 5]

I'd expect to see a cat 3 hit Southern California before I'd expect JB to go below average.

But if an El Nino does indeed set in, this would be about right.

[Stormcenter]

I really do hope he's right (lower number of storms and threats). I like tracking storms but let's be honest after last season we could all use a break. I sincerely mean that.

[Category 5]

I think AccuWx has a graphics department which put that out. JB is in Houston for some conference this week, maybe he didn't see it.


As likely as not, at least one storm crosses the Caribbean this year, I suppose, but I doubt any islanders will completely ignore the weather this upcoming season based on one AccuWx graphic.

I'd hope not.


JB could be right, he has 1983 as an analog year

1983 is a good example of "it only takes one"