Ed Mahmoud wrote:I find today's HPC model discussion somewhat uninformative, probably because they aren't at all sure what might happen.SOUTHEAST US/FL/GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DRIFTS NORTHWEST WITH TIME INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO UNDER AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT CLOSES OFF BY
00Z WED 20 MAY AND MOVES SLOWLY WITH TIME. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA
OF LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES IS FCST BY ALL OF THE MODELS...WITH THE
00Z GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER/FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS AND ECMWF/NCEP MEANS. THE 06Z GFS
TRENDED NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION SFC AND ALOFT AND LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOLLOWING THE 06Z GFS.
A BLENDED SOLUTION WAS USED HERE DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD OF WHERE
THE SFC CENTER (OR CENTERS) WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE LG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/HEIGHTS.
i think its informative:
1. GFS is outlier
2. Others in fair agreement on a farther south idea that gfs.
3. GFS as usual has heavyweight status therefore they blended everything down the middle. The key here is GFS weighting is big and is offsetting the weight of multiple other models, doesnt mean it will be correct and may come around and agree with others but no need for the forecaster to do anything crazy like discount the preferred gfs model at this time.
As usual we have a whole season of this in front of us, aint it fun.
