Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[NEXRAD]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
Mid Level Rotation visible near 79-81 W just south of Cuba...
As pointed out by the TWD....
Tropical Storm Force wind gusts *(not necessarily a
tropical system; it may be sub/extra tropical...but the impacts will
be 40+ mph gusts with gradient and strong squalls/storms) are looking to be pretty
likely witn the pressure gradient over S FL the next 3 days.

(And in reply to cpdaman's comment). I agree in full for gale-force gusts over open waters and along the coasts, owing to pressure gradient effects. However, I trend towards the low end of guidance when it comes to such things. This said, the South Florida coastal sites do indeed tend to run a good 5 to 10 mph higher than most other Florida coastal locations, so periodic gale force gusts will be probable there. Otherwise, wet downbursts will be something to watch for. From the convective stance, I'd not be surprised to see a handful of 50 to 60 mph gusts with heavier convection blossoming in conjunction with these weather features Monday - Wednesday.

- Jay

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks NEXRAD for your forecasts! Yes any severe storms that form with cold
air aloft could easily bring down 50-60 mph winds to the
surface. Not that I expect that to be the norm...mostly
I think 30-40 mph wind gusts, but isolated severe cells
will easily produce 50-60 mph winds (which is common for
severe cells in Florida even without any tropical systems).

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

plenty of warm water to be warm core.....

[RL3AO]

Some of the obs in Jamaica and Cuba are hinting at broad low pressure, but its probably just sea breeze. A lot of these obs look pretty close to the water.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

CMC: Hurricane up along the FL West Coast...then goes into
the panhandle

GFS: Tropical System into SE FL, crosses the state, exits
near Tampa, heads NW to Pensacola (West FL Panhandle)

NOGAPS: Yucatan Channel, South-Central Gulf

[NEXRAD]

CMC: Hurricane up along the FL West Coast...then goes into
the panhandle

GFS: Tropical System into SE FL, crosses the state, exits
near Tampa, heads NW to Pensacola (West FL Panhandle)

NOGAPS: Yucatan Channel, South-Central Gulf

The models are all over the place with this (eventual) system, which isn't surprising considering the complex set-up. The CMC is a definite outlier. Again, I watched this model put-out all manner of frightfully intense storms during the past two seasons. Overall, the Gulf SSTs don't support significant tropical cyclogenesis; temperatures are marginal. I'd cap development -- if any -- at 50-knots. That said, I'm not expecting such development. Overall, the scenario looks to be more of a wet trough/minor tropical system that will prove more beneficial than harmful for the sake of the drought-stricken Florida Peninsula.

Thank, too, Tampa Bay Hurricane! Wet microburst potential may be elevated for the first half of next week given the potential saturation levels and tight pressure gradients. Either way, I fully agree that 50 to 60 mph microbursts are common "pulse cell" features for Florida's wet season. I recall how one (admittedly longer lived) cell back in March-ish of '08 sparked a 97-mph microburst gust in Martin County!

- Jay

[cycloneye]

00z NAM has multiple lows,not one consolidated one.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jaxfladude]

CMC: Hurricane up along the FL West Coast...then goes into
the panhandle

GFS: Tropical System into SE FL, crosses the state, exits
near Tampa, heads NW to Pensacola (West FL Panhandle)

NOGAPS: Yucatan Channel, South-Central Gulf

Hopefully after this "Disturbance" occurs or not, the Tropics quiet down for awhile...
Florida needs a drought busting rainy season, but not something too wet/windy.....

[Bailey1777]

Can somebody tell me what this is?http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

[RL3AO]

Can somebody tell me what this is?http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Looks like the models forecast track of low pressure systems.

[Bailey1777]

I've never seen it on this site before and I just found it.

[canetracker]

00z GFS @ 120 hrs.

[Bailey1777]

The speed with which we get a true closed low will have a big impact on where this potential system goes, if it takes 5 or 6 days to form it may not shoot the gap and end up getting blocked by high pressure building in. I think over the next several days we will see models trending westward towards Louisianna.(JMHO)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Should hopefully mitigate drought.

I do laugh at the CMC...a hurricane will not happen LOL...
shear is way too high...waters cannot maintain it that far
north.

If the 00Z NAM Verifies- it will likely be a strong cold front
with several potent lows riding along it- in other words- more
spring-like and extra-tropical...
but what concerns me for tropical/sub-tropical development is
that the possible low starts out so far south...
Sort of like Barry 2007, was tropical coming out of the Caribbean
but likely became extratropical during landfall in Tampa...


So it may start out a tropical system then convert to sub- and
extra- once it goes north into the NE or N Central GOM.

[Bailey1777]

Everbody seems to be focusing on the mess south of Cuba going on right now but wouldn't it be more probable that the best shot at a decent low will come with that rigorous front that's pushing out into the GOM right now?

[JonathanBelles]

Everbody seems to be focusing on the mess south of Cuba going on right now but wouldn't it be more probable that the best shot at a decent low will come with that rigorous front that's pushing out into the GOM right now?

I am focusing on the Front right now. I think this may be a second possible cause for the low, but it will also prohibit the low from making a subtropical/tropical transition.

[Bailey1777]

Well the reason I brought it up is the latest models seem to be showing lows all over the place and by their placement it would have to be associated with that front.

[ROCK]

I am a EURO hugger now after last years Ike lesson in model watching....

If its sniffing something into FL its a good bet. Intersting to see tonight run...1:30am CST

[ROCK]

good point Bailey....

to be honest without a LLC to track its all a guessing came and thats IF a LLC forms....

that mess near Cuba is under 40knts of shear...nothing going to stack with that...

[cpdaman]

either way look at the TCHP map and the water temperature just don't have the depth to support any system......the following chart doesn't even show the loop current "maturely" established

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 9135at.jpg the loop is nice as well (showing a quick warming trend)

also this system will be moving slowly (likely upwelling water's a tad) .........in the carib....it's a different story and there is TCHP that could support a cane....but with this likely developing under a upper low.....i think it would be in the GOM/straits by the time it had a chance to transtion