Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[Aric Dunn]

hits of the uppler low forming on WV tonight .. around western cuba

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

it is worth noting the upper divergence on the east side of the feature. its helping to produce the convection south of cuba and should be the place to look for any sort of surface low to try and take shape. anywhere east the upper feature.

[Bailey1777]

I think if something happens and that's not a certanty it will be one of those ugly loose systems that have copious amounts of precip on their east side. Now if it was 2 months from now in the same area we might have quite a different story.

[Bailey1777]

Aric good to see you for another season! Question though haven't they been saying that the low depicted by the models would be a result of a low pinching off from that frontal boundary entering the GOM now?

[Aric Dunn]

The little circle is the area to watch for the upper low to cut off and the V shape is the present upper trough. the area east of that in the big circle is the area of upper divergence and low level convergence. that area will be the area to watch tomorrow and monday as the whole system including the upper low begin to migrate in some northerly component.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric good to see you for another season! Question though haven't they been saying that the low depicted by the models would be a result of a low pinching off from that frontal boundary entering the GOM now?

right well an upper low will pinch off .. then a surface low under or very near the upper low will begin to take shape..

and yeah its good to be back.. !

[canetracker]

00z Navy Model

00z Canadian

Models are all over the place with timing and where the system will eventually go. Think we will get a better handle on this when an actual LLC forms.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 00z UKMET still a little bizzarre but still coming out of the carrib..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

going to take some more time for the models to figure out phase,track, and intensity.

[cycloneye]

72 hour TAFB forecast.

[jlauderdal]

72 hour TAFB forecast.

they seem to be favoring the euro solution, move a low through the straits up the gulf and take all week to get to the panhandle, seems reasonable considering the setup, intensity will be the next challenge although i suspect it will be a broad widespread weak system and putting a dent in the drought situation in parts of florida, lots of weather coming together the next few days with the low, troughs and ridging in place

[wxman57]

There's absolutely nothing there at the surface yet. Obs show steady SE flow all across the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf, with pressures remaining steady. I don't think the low will get going until late tomorrow or Tuesday. Nothing today.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think if this system whatever it maybe bring if anything to florida tropical or non-tropical then it could bring severe weather to the sunshine state here if it affects us here and if this becomes a Gale then the question that comes to mind is will or ncould we see winds into the strong TS forse gusts or Hurricane force wind gusts at this point???

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
I can't find any circulation...

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Everything seems to be coming together. I agree, no circulation at the moment but the disturbance appears to be starting to develop.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis. Consult official NWS resources for final information.

Personally, I believe that the current area is the precursor to development, although the surface low has not formed. The main development should slowly commence within the next 24-36 hours. Do not anticipate rapid deepening. It should be noted that the system will be largely co-located with an upper low, so it will not be purely tropical. In other words, hybrid characteristics will be evident, as well. However, model forecasts' data indicate warmer low level temperatures at 850 mb, confirming the existence of warm core characteristics. Check the recent 00Z GFS (54 hr) as an example. The actual intensity of the system will be partially determined by the location of the 850 mb low and the greatest differential vorticity advection. If the 850 mb low is closer to the surface low, it would substantiate a deeper system. In this case, the 850 mb system will not be perfectly aligned with the surface low pressure area; thus, it precludes rapid deepening, and the system will be disorganized. The surface low location will also be dictated by the best 500 mb vorticity advection.

Models, including the 00Z GFS ensembles, have been recently reached more consistency in regard to the location of the surface low. As the southern extent of an upper level trough elongates and deepens over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (preceding the formation of an upper level low), the main surface low will develop in a diffluent environment near Cuba within the next 36 hours. It will move NNW on the eastern side of the fragmenting upper level trough, and the low/mid level pattern suggests that the system will cross southern Florida prior to Gulf entry. However, TS classification is unlikely prior to Gulf entry.

The precipitation patterns over S FL will be partially influenced by the location of the surface low and the best ascet. Since the system will likely pass over S FL, the best precipitation may be focused farther northeast (within the environment of best ascent). The greatest drought relief will probably occur when the system enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico, concentrating the precipitation over the Florida peninsula.

[wxman57]

I think if this system whatever it maybe bring if anything to florida tropical or non-tropical then it could bring severe weather to the sunshine state here if it affects us here and if this becomes a Gale then the question that comes to mind is will or ncould we see winds into the strong TS forse gusts or Hurricane force wind gusts at this point???

I'm expecting the low to produce 40-50 mph NE-E winds across the eastern Gulf when it really gets going Wednesday/Thursday. This will be mostly due to the pressure gradient between the low and the large high pressure area over the eastern U.S. and cold advection out across the water north of the low. But that wind is over water, not land. Inland, winds would be about half that when it moves ashore between SE LA and the FL Panhandle on Fri/Sat.

[gatorcane]

Another good link to use for SAT images of systems is located at University of Miami:

Link to bookmark:
http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

Right now looks like all we have at the moment is a trough axis flaring up due to interaction with strong shear...

Latest IR:


Latest VIS:

[cycloneye]

12z NAM is more slow with it on movement than in past runs of this model.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cpdaman]

well the 06z gfs brings the low up a bit further north before turning west (Daytona-St. Augastine)

looks like coastal areas of central fl.... to south east georgia would see windiest conditions consistent with a moderate nor'easter .............and a gale watch is up from georgia to north-central florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[wxman57]

Latest surface analysis (using GARP) and satellite overlay show nothing at surface. Pressures from buoys in the NW Caribbean are rising, not falling. Nothing out there today but a few storms associated with the trailing end of an old frontal boundary. Might be something significant out there late tomorrow, probably on Tuesday.