Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
I do not expect anything to pan out until the ML & UL low is in place in the SE GOM, by Tuesday morning, it should then start spinning a surface reflection. IMO, the 12z NAM is starting to catch on, last nights 00z euro and CMC have the right idea. The ML disturbance in eastern Cuba will not do much if anything at the surface and its energy will be absorbed when the ULL is in place in the SE GOM in the next couple of days.
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
NDG wrote:I do not expect anything to pan out until the ML & UL low is in place in the SE GOM, by Tuesday morning, it should then start spinning a surface reflection. IMO, the 12z NAM is starting to catch on, last nights 00z euro and CMC have the right idea. The ML disturbance in eastern Cuba will not do much if anything at the surface and its energy will be absorbed when the ULL is in place in the SE GOM in the next couple of days.
Agree. No dynamics to start spinning anything up for 36-48 hours. That's why I said no invest until Tuesday at the earliest. 12Z GFS takes a low across central Cuba to east of Florida on Tuesay, then WNW across the central FL Peninsula on Wednesday and into the NE Gulf Thursday. That kind of track isn't one conducive to intensification, just a rain maker.
Oh, and the 12Z GFS indicates much greater cold air advection into the low on Tuesday/Wednesday behind a moderate cold front which slips south through Florida. Such an airmass would certainly hinder any tropical development, but it wouldn't prevent a frontal low from forming.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun May 17, 2009 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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12z GFS much farther east on this run ...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re:
Would such a track seem to suggest that the heaviest rain would miss the areas that need it most on the peninsula (south of I-4 corridor)....still would be a scenario that would bring instability and rain...but 1-2" with locally higher amounts is very different than widespread amounts of to 6" being forecast by accuweather and the 5-8" being mentioned by Dr. Jeff Masters (by way of model showing forecast rainfall amounts he posted in update this morning).
Aric Dunn wrote:12z GFS much farther east on this run ...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
Sundry Sunday Notes
Good mid-Sunday, all. The ongoing convection in vicinity of Jamaica is fueled, in part, by improved divergence aloft and a weak upper level low (at H35 and above). Water vapor clearly shows moisture streaming gradually northward towards Florida and especially the Bahamas, as is further evidenced by activity across the Florida Straits presently lighting up the Key West 88D. South Florida and Key West VAD profiles, though, show a predominantly easterly component at the surface through mid-levels, so the true moisture feed hasn't begun in earnest as of midday today. However, the Key West VAD is showing southerly flow aloft dropping from 12KFT to around 9KFT this past hour. Moisture is indeed on the way for Florida.
Model-wise, there's little new to say. Guidance is spread across two general scenarios: surface low development east of the peninsula or to the west, in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. I suspect the main difference is whether the respective model is generating the low as a more tropical feature and in response to mid-level forcing (which favors the Gulf low scenario) versus a less tropical cyclogenesis owing to the baroclinicity to develop off East Florida in response to the frontal boundary that will fade-out over Central Florida. The exact position and intensity of a surface low will make a difference in terms of how much rainfall develops over Florida and in terms of severe weather potential for at least the southern half of the peninsula.
A system that moves just west of the Florida Peninsula would have the greatest potential of contributing widespread, beneficial, rainfall to the state. If the system winds-up over the Atlantic, then conditions may well end-up drier than expected for Monday into Tuesday as the state falls on the subsidence side of the low. From the overall consensus, I'd anticipate a system that's more towards the west, but not as far west as the ECMWF. I don't think that the baroclinic forcing offshore East Florida will be strong enough to promote significant cyclogenesis in that region. Instead, I am thinking that we'll see a more elongated system develop with trough-like features. This will promote a broad plume of moisture and resultant rainfall extending north of whatever surface feature emerges. The HPC's quantitative precipitation forecast calls for prolific rainfall over the Florida Peninsula and even into coastal Georgia and South Carolina for this coming week. I concur with the HPC forecast, and expect that most of Florida will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall Monday AM through Thursday, with several locations picking-up 5 to 9 inch rainfall totals. Needless to say, some local small stream and urban flooding will be likely, although the overall rainfall will be highly beneficial.
One topic I'm not seeing addressed is severe weather potential. Owing to the energy aloft and the cold front, there will be residual cool air aloft for at least the Monday and Tuesday time frame. When combined with available moisture and forcing along the boundary, look for at least scattered strong to severe cells cropping up. If the low develops and is present southwest of the Peninsula on Monday or Tuesday, then increased helicity east of the feature could allow for some rotating cells. While the evolution of this system is too murky for any confidence, this system has the potential to yield a tornado threat early next week for parts of Florida. If the cooler temperatures aloft hang around, then there may actually be a hail threat accompanying deeper convection - which would suggest that we're not dealing with a purely tropical system.
- Jay
Good mid-Sunday, all. The ongoing convection in vicinity of Jamaica is fueled, in part, by improved divergence aloft and a weak upper level low (at H35 and above). Water vapor clearly shows moisture streaming gradually northward towards Florida and especially the Bahamas, as is further evidenced by activity across the Florida Straits presently lighting up the Key West 88D. South Florida and Key West VAD profiles, though, show a predominantly easterly component at the surface through mid-levels, so the true moisture feed hasn't begun in earnest as of midday today. However, the Key West VAD is showing southerly flow aloft dropping from 12KFT to around 9KFT this past hour. Moisture is indeed on the way for Florida.
Model-wise, there's little new to say. Guidance is spread across two general scenarios: surface low development east of the peninsula or to the west, in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. I suspect the main difference is whether the respective model is generating the low as a more tropical feature and in response to mid-level forcing (which favors the Gulf low scenario) versus a less tropical cyclogenesis owing to the baroclinicity to develop off East Florida in response to the frontal boundary that will fade-out over Central Florida. The exact position and intensity of a surface low will make a difference in terms of how much rainfall develops over Florida and in terms of severe weather potential for at least the southern half of the peninsula.
A system that moves just west of the Florida Peninsula would have the greatest potential of contributing widespread, beneficial, rainfall to the state. If the system winds-up over the Atlantic, then conditions may well end-up drier than expected for Monday into Tuesday as the state falls on the subsidence side of the low. From the overall consensus, I'd anticipate a system that's more towards the west, but not as far west as the ECMWF. I don't think that the baroclinic forcing offshore East Florida will be strong enough to promote significant cyclogenesis in that region. Instead, I am thinking that we'll see a more elongated system develop with trough-like features. This will promote a broad plume of moisture and resultant rainfall extending north of whatever surface feature emerges. The HPC's quantitative precipitation forecast calls for prolific rainfall over the Florida Peninsula and even into coastal Georgia and South Carolina for this coming week. I concur with the HPC forecast, and expect that most of Florida will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall Monday AM through Thursday, with several locations picking-up 5 to 9 inch rainfall totals. Needless to say, some local small stream and urban flooding will be likely, although the overall rainfall will be highly beneficial.
One topic I'm not seeing addressed is severe weather potential. Owing to the energy aloft and the cold front, there will be residual cool air aloft for at least the Monday and Tuesday time frame. When combined with available moisture and forcing along the boundary, look for at least scattered strong to severe cells cropping up. If the low develops and is present southwest of the Peninsula on Monday or Tuesday, then increased helicity east of the feature could allow for some rotating cells. While the evolution of this system is too murky for any confidence, this system has the potential to yield a tornado threat early next week for parts of Florida. If the cooler temperatures aloft hang around, then there may actually be a hail threat accompanying deeper convection - which would suggest that we're not dealing with a purely tropical system.
- Jay
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
Great analysis...other than to boating and marine interests, do you forsee this being a widespread wind event with either scenario, or will locally high winds be confined to any severe cells that develop (which is the case almost every day during the rainy season in some part of the state)...i am referring to a more organized radii of winds sustained at speeds approaching ts force.
NEXRAD wrote:Sundry Sunday Notes
Good mid-Sunday, all. The ongoing convection in vicinity of Jamaica is fueled, in part, by improved divergence aloft and a weak upper level low (at H35 and above). Water vapor clearly shows moisture streaming gradually northward towards Florida and especially the Bahamas, as is further evidenced by activity across the Florida Straits presently lighting up the Key West 88D. South Florida and Key West VAD profiles, though, show a predominantly easterly component at the surface through mid-levels, so the true moisture feed hasn't begun in earnest as of midday today. However, the Key West VAD is showing southerly flow aloft dropping from 12KFT to around 9KFT this past hour. Moisture is indeed on the way for Florida.
Model-wise, there's little new to say. Guidance is spread across two general scenarios: surface low development east of the peninsula or to the west, in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. I suspect the main difference is whether the respective model is generating the low as a more tropical feature and in response to mid-level forcing (which favors the Gulf low scenario) versus a less tropical cyclogenesis owing to the baroclinicity to develop off East Florida in response to the frontal boundary that will fade-out over Central Florida. The exact position and intensity of a surface low will make a difference in terms of how much rainfall develops over Florida and in terms of severe weather potential for at least the southern half of the peninsula.
A system that moves just west of the Florida Peninsula would have the greatest potential of contributing widespread, beneficial, rainfall to the state. If the system winds-up over the Atlantic, then conditions may well end-up drier than expected for Monday into Tuesday as the state falls on the subsidence side of the low. From the overall consensus, I'd anticipate a system that's more towards the west, but not as far west as the ECMWF. I don't think that the baroclinic forcing offshore East Florida will be strong enough to promote significant cyclogenesis in that region. Instead, I am thinking that we'll see a more elongated system develop with trough-like features. This will promote a broad plume of moisture and resultant rainfall extending north of whatever surface feature emerges. The HPC's quantitative precipitation forecast calls for prolific rainfall over the Florida Peninsula and even into coastal Georgia and South Carolina for this coming week. I concur with the HPC forecast, and expect that most of Florida will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall Monday AM through Thursday, with several locations picking-up 5 to 9 inch rainfall totals. Needless to say, some local small stream and urban flooding will be likely, although the overall rainfall will be highly beneficial.
One topic I'm not seeing addressed is severe weather potential. Owing to the energy aloft and the cold front, there will be residual cool air aloft for at least the Monday and Tuesday time frame. When combined with available moisture and forcing along the boundary, look for at least scattered strong to severe cells cropping up. If the low develops and is present southwest of the Peninsula on Monday or Tuesday, then increased helicity east of the feature could allow for some rotating cells. While the evolution of this system is too murky for any confidence, this system has the potential to yield a tornado threat early next week for parts of Florida. If the cooler temperatures aloft hang around, then there may actually be a hail threat accompanying deeper convection - which would suggest that we're not dealing with a purely tropical system.
- Jay
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
Never a dull moment in Canadian land...


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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
Didn't the Canadian get the 'quiet season'/el nino memo....oh wait, technically not the season yet.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Never a dull moment in Canadian land...
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
jinftl wrote:Great analysis...other than to boating and marine interests, do you forsee this being a widespread wind event with either scenario, or will locally high winds be confined to any severe cells that develop (which is the case almost every day during the rainy season in some part of the state)...i am referring to a more organized radii of winds sustained at speeds approaching ts force.
Many thanks for the comment. I don't expect this future low to yield much of a wind event for land interests. Even the NAM, which is one of the most aggressive models with this system, doesn't take winds above 30 knots sustained for any Florida land location (and even then, the NAM's 30 knot winds are shown along the coast). This model is one of the aggressive outliers. Overall, I'd expect peak sustained winds to hit around 20 mph inland, 25 to 35-mph along immediate coastal areas. I'd expect periodic wind gusts in the 40-range, especially in deeper convection. Outside of the rainfall, the one threat I'm most concerned with is the severe weather potential. Widespread cloud cover will limit day time heating and instability, however with plenty of available moisture and the presence of an old frontal boundary, there will be forcing available to concentrate and trigger convective development. Should the low spin-up as model guidance suggests, then we'll need to watch for a tornado threat as well. This isn't to say that I'm forecasting any substantial tornado outbreak at this time, I'm merely pointing out that there are interesting dynamical features in play with this system that could combine to allow a greater severe weather threat.
- Jay
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12 z UKMET
pretty much the same as the 00z
but a little stronger and slower.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
pretty much the same as the 00z
but a little stronger and slower.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week
From just yesterday, 80 degree water has now reached the panhandle beaches in places...buoy readings off of panhandle up about 2 deg from yesterday. Eastern Gulf is roughly 82-83 deg from a line south of fort myers, and around 80 north of that line to the gulf coast.
Aric Dunn wrote:well here is some sst measurements for the eastern Gulf
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof_tmap.html
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week
jinftl wrote:From just yesterday, 80 degree water has now reached the panhandle beaches in places...buoy readings off of panhandle up about 2 deg from yesterdayAric Dunn wrote:well here is some sst measurements for the eastern Gulf
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof_tmap.html
lol.. yes but dont forget the ocean moves and the sun can only warm it so fast and to a very shallow depth .. i mean like a few inches in one day. your tallking the immediate top layer of the ocean and then is mixed down and that cycle heats the ocean to greater depths over time. if anything were to move over those areas now you would not have a lot of time before up welling occurred.. so any major intensification do to ssts is really not likely ..
and actually i did a small calculation yesterday to see how long it would take the sun to warm the ocean ( without much mixing and only the area of the NE gulf) and it was like 3 1/2 degrees over a 3 month period and was to a depth of 3 meters which is a large volume of water. so those bouys are going to go up and down based on currents .. but yeah its clearly warming up but its going to take a while to get to a depth that would sustain any intensity over TS.
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
Thanks, NEXRAD - I was starting to wonder what was going on south of Cuba...
We could use the rain, for sure, though the peninsula has been seeing pretty fair amounts of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms since last Monday, so, rainy seaons is here (per the Miami WSFO)...
Lettuce hope that this system will bring South and Central Florida a widespread area of rain - that'd be awesome (as long as it isn't another Fay)...
Frank2
We could use the rain, for sure, though the peninsula has been seeing pretty fair amounts of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms since last Monday, so, rainy seaons is here (per the Miami WSFO)...
Lettuce hope that this system will bring South and Central Florida a widespread area of rain - that'd be awesome (as long as it isn't another Fay)...
Frank2
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
I know the surface low hasn't formed yet but dose this Moster looks to be headed to florida any time soon in DROUGHT STRICKEN florida here????????
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late This Week
Frank2 wrote:Thanks, NEXRAD - I was starting to wonder what was going on south of Cuba...
We could use the rain, for sure, though the peninsula has been seeing pretty fair amounts of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms since last Monday, so, rainy seaons is here (per the Miami WSFO)...
Lettuce hope that this system will bring South and Central Florida a widespread area of rain - that'd be awesome (as long as it isn't another Fay)...
Frank2
Thank you, Frank2. There's a mid-level trough and what looks to be a weak upper level low for the Cuba/Jamaica activity. This should provide one of the two surface features combining to form the system that will bring Florida's needed rainfall. I don't see this one becoming another Fay. Guidance unanimously favors moving the system towards the Northeast or North Central Gulf coast for late week while drying things out over Florida. What we'll more likely see for rainfall with this system is periods of light rain or showers continuously for Monday through Tuesday PM punctuated by heavy showers, thunderstorms, and possibly convective bands. Training echos - especially in vicinity of the washed out frontal boundary - will be the real source for any heavy rainfall totals. Some areas could well see some street flooding result, but I don't expect anything nearly as widespread as what happened with Fay.
Regardless, this is definitely an interesting pattern setting up.
- Jay
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