Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[hiflyer]

Pilon cuban radar holding a good image of the stuff south of them
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[NEXRAD]

NEXRAD,

Your analyses are always excellent. However, I must disagree with you in regard to the track. The ECMWF has always harbored a notorious bias: it has a tendency to exhibit greater amplification of specific mid/upper level patterns. Recently, the GFS has outperformed the ECMWF in some cases. At this time, the ECMWF is the only reliable model that indicates a track over or west of southern Florida. Several 12Z GFS ensembles suggest that greater baroclinicity will be present near the east coast of FL. They are also substantiated by the UKMET. The fact that the ECMWF is closer to the 00Z NAM diminishes its credulity; in fact, even the NAM has recently shifted considerably farther east. This trend is a product of (1) the greater baroclinicity off E FL and (2) greater vorticity associated with a deeper longwave exiting the eastern United States. Of course, this trend would also lead to a stronger mid level ridge, which explains the models' sharp westward turns into central FL. Therefore, I tend to believe that the precipitation over south FL will be lower than your expectations, and I do not see the tornado threat that would be supported by a track farther S and W.

What are your latest thoughts?

Edit: As an aside, why are there comparisons to Able of 1951? That TC was associated with a different synoptic pattern.

I'm sticking to the more westerly solution. The GFS is the farthest right of the major models. The UKMET takes a weak low off the SE Florida Coast but brings this system west across the Central Peninsula by Wednesday. Such a track would be similar to 1995's Jerry (albeit, Jerry was a purely tropical system, so the comparison here is track only). A low forming off the Southeast Florida coast and then moving across the Peninsula and into the Gulf would fully yield the rainfall totals I've been projecting. The only difference is that the timing of the most widespread precipitation would be shifted from the Monday-Tuesday time period to late Tuesday-Thursday period. I agree that baroclinic forcing would favor the Atlantic side of Florida, however I expect that forcing to lessen as a result of the front's stalling over the Peninsula. From what I'm looking at with the 12Z models, there doesn't look to be much baroclinicity offshore East Florida until late Monday into Tuesday. I anticipate a surface low will have formed by then. Additionally, baroclinic forcing looks poised to be maximized off Northeast Florida. A low forming there strikes me as a bit unlikely owing to the divergence aloft favoring deepest convection farther south. This reflects my previous best guess with this system - that we'll see whatever surface low transpires develop somewhere over the Florida Straits or extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico and that there will be an attendant trough axis or even a warm front like boundary extending from this low towards the northeast across Florida.

- Jay

[Cookie]

sorry I keep reading this what is baroclinic?

[RL3AO]

sorry I keep reading this what is baroclinic?

Think of it as frontal and non-tropical.

Heres a full description.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/49/

[Cookie]

thanks mate.

[cycloneye]

Accuweather says Sub-Tropical

Accuweather

[hurricanefloyd5]

Cycloneye thy must be wrong because there is no invist and the NHC didn't even mention this system or the other one.

[jinftl]

Forecaster is not even mentioning this being a Gulf system....focus on east coast of Florida through Charleston, SC...and he does think it will be Ana in a few days (he's not saying it is currently a sub-trop storm). Interesting.

Accuweather says Sub-Tropical

Accuweather

[hurricanefloyd5]

oh Man here we go again Accuweather going in full panic mode now!!!!!LOL

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye thy must be wrong because there is no invist and the NHC didn't even mention this system or the other one.

They dont say its Sub-Tropical now but in the comming days.

[Aric Dunn]

hehe the ssd site has invest for the system ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[AdamFirst]

The Hurricane Center has put one of their floater satellite images over the system and labeled it as 'invest'...but I see no official designations of it as an invest

edit: beat me to the punch

[brunota2003]

hehe the ssd site has invest for the system ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

That's been there all afternoon

[Aric Dunn]

hehe the ssd site has invest for the system ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

That's been there all afternoon

just noticed it.. lol find it funny..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Cycloneye thy must be wrong because there is no invist and the NHC didn't even mention this system or the other one.

They dont say its Sub-Tropical now but in the comming days.

oh sorry I meant when it dose in a few days sorry cycloneye

[RL3AO]

The Hurricane Center has put one of their floater satellite images over the system and labeled it as 'invest'...but I see no official designations of it as an invest

edit: beat me to the punch

It wasn't the NHC, it was SSD. When ever they put a floater on something they label it invest. It doesn't mean its a true invest.

[ROCK]

hehe the ssd site has invest for the system ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

That's been there all afternoon

actually floater 3 was on this area many days ago. I am guessing it was left on this area from last year. They moved it to floater 1 today....

[jinftl]

In all fairness, the forecaster is going out on a limb of the non-tropical/tropical distinction of the system more than anything. Certainly, he isn't the only one speaking of a system developing that could drop copious rain...pretty much all models and forecast agencies/offices are also forecasting that. In the discussion, he's not really forecasting actual weather conditions significantly worse than even the NWS offices are, he's just speaking of the nature of the system on internal make-up and genesis....and going with a southeast atlantic coast and not a gulf track (as some models are showing).

But that said....your point is completely understood....it is the headline that really grabs the attention (the actual discussion isn't too hyped or as alarming sounding)...

Tropics Could Turn Active Early; Florida in Threat Zone

Good lord...this is after the headlines of a quiet season ahead yesterday. Less headlines, more substance!

oh Man here we go again Accuweather going in full panic mode now!!!!!LOL

[Aric Dunn]

both the UKMET and GFS have it as a tropical system (warm core) as of the 12z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[hurricanefloyd5]

both the UKMET and GFS have it as a tropical system (warm core) as of the 12z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

the way the models are behaving do you think this could reach min. cat.1 cane aric?????