Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[cpdaman]

ok so does anyone think the models will trend back west when we likely see the mid level low over cuba not become the surface low.....but instead likely be absorbed northward

[nashrobertsx]

NO-AFD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS FORECASTS THE LOW TO
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THEN TAKE A 90 DEGREE
WESTWARD TURN ACROSS THE PENINSULA SOUTH OF DAYTONA AND THEN INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT THEN CONTINUES TO
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL MOVING INLAND AROUND THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER SOME TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW AROUND THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND KEEPS IT ON A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...MOVING INLAND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MEANDER SLOWLY AROUND THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN BOTH SCENARIOS...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WITH THAT SAID...
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE PATH OF THE LOW COULD RESULT IN A LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE FARTHER WEST THIS
LOW TRACKS...THE MORE THREAT THERE IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. DEPENDING ON THE PATH THAT THE LOW
TAKES...WE COULD SEE A LONG DURATION OF PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN A PILE UP OF
WATER ALONG SHORELINES THAT ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FLOW.

[micktooth]

Well I had to do it for my first post of the season. Welcome back everyone!! BEARS WATCHING!!

[RL3AO]

See.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105292

[cpdaman]

how can we be so sure when there are no bouys or obs really near this relatively small rotation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

is it me or do I see some banding starting to form over the Island of Jamaca on the last 2 frames or so??????????http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

how can we be so sure when there are no bouys or obs really near this relatively small rotation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

plenty of obs.. Jamaica, Cuba and looking at the lower level cloud patterns its fairly clear that there is not even a slight hint of low level circulation.

also use the RGB loop as it differentiates the clouds with height coloring them different

[jinftl]

In Marine portion of Discussion, NWS Melbourne not really sounding too bullish on the system developing to that extent....and keep in mind that especially with weaker systems (td, weak ts) or hybrid type systems, the worst of the weather can be far from the 'center of circulation'...not talking about an eyewall type situation where being in that ring around the eye would be the worst place to be.


MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF WIND AND SEAS EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE LOW DEVELOPS...BUT BASED ON THE
CURRENT SCENARIO WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 8-10 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING INTO THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THU AND CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONCE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND
SEA HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND CHANGES TO MARINE
FORECASTS.

Melbourne, FL AFD this afternoon...certain models have the potential center of circulation entering around the Space Coast:

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR THE STATE...EVENTUALLY FORCING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BENEATH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF UPPER
REFLECTION. EVOLUTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW. AS HEIGHTS LOWER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE...REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION. THICK MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL RESTRICT TEMP RISE...HOLDING MAXS AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREE
BELOW CLIMO...AND LIMITING INSTABILITY. SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY QUITE BENEFICIAL IN SOME SPOTS.
HOWEVER...ACCURATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS STILL DIFFICULT UNTIL LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF
DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE RELATIVE TO ECFL BEGINS MORE CERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGION-WIDE COVERAGE OF 50-60 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

THU-SUN...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF UPPER LOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENDING UP IN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING SLOWLY AWAY DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS.

EDIT: once again beaten to the punch. I'm too slow for this.

if this pans out for florida then would was see wind adv.,highwind adv., or Tropical Storm warnings???????

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Mid-Level Spin is apparent just south of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[Aric Dunn]

oh geez.. we dont want this run of the gfs to pan out.. talk about flooding rains for the SE and lower Mississippi valley..

interesting to note this run although its the 18z it is much farther east again which would make sense since the gfs is developing the area in the Caribbean now and since it has been shifting slightly east all day thus the 18z has shifted east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

If you loop this IR loop, you can really see that mid-level spin moving NNW just east of Jamaica and south of Cuba. It wouldn't surprise me if this ends up in the Bahamas somewhere before bending back west, kindaof like what the 18Z GFS is doing...of course that would keep most of FL on the dry side of this system which would not be good for those like me looking for a good soaking.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Aric Dunn]

also the 12z euro is slower again and closes of the low much farther east than the 00z run. it now develops the low near the keys vs off the nw tip of cuba, but not till wed!!!! then deepens it and head it nnw towards panhandle Alabama area.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Aric Dunn]

If you loop this IR loop, you can really see that mid-level spin moving NNW just east of Jamaica and south of Cuba. It wouldn't surprise me if this ends up in the Bahamas somewhere before bending back west, kindaof like what the 18Z GFS is doing...of course that would keep most of FL on the dry side of this system which would not be good for those like me looking for a good soaking.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

yes but just in the short term once the low crosses florida ( if it follows the gfs) then the rain would increase for many days after that.

[Cookie]

its going to be an interesting watch

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W GULF THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 26N95W TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE
E OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF N OF 26N
BETWEEN 86W-95W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 91W.
ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE E GULF ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 29N E
OF 84W INCLUDING THE W FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. ALL OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO... DURING
THE NEXT DAY...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EITHER
EXTRATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL...AND MOVING GENERALLY N. THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-79W...INCLUDING
JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND W HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 16N76W. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.
DURING THE NEXT DAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE N OF THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
COHEN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[ronjon]

I'm thinking the most likely scenario is a broad elongated low pressure trough with perhaps a couple of weak lows (one south of KYW and one along the FL east coast) ala the 18Z NAM run with the SE GOM low eventually winning out and becoming the dominant one. HPC mentioned that the GFS was suffering from some convective feedback issues with the low further up the east coast. I don't think the mass of cloudiness near Cuba/JAM has anything to do with the eventual low pressure system other than to provide a stream of moisture into FL once the low in the SE GOM gets established. I'm with the Euro, CMC, NAM, and NOGAPs camp on this one as far as eventual location of low pressure in the SE GOM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/model_s.shtml

[Rainband]

I see a spin and that area by Cuba is starting to look like it may be forming into something IMHO

[NDG]

also the 12z euro is slower again and closes of the low much farther east than the 00z run. it now develops the low near the keys vs off the nw tip of cuba, but not till wed!!!! then deepens it and head it nnw towards panhandle Alabama area.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

I really do not see that much difference in the euro's runs, if anything is one of the most consistent since at least yesterday's 12z run.

I'm thinking the most likely scenario is a broad elongated low pressure trough with perhaps a couple of weak lows (one south of KYW and one along the FL east coast) ala the 18Z NAM run with the SE GOM low eventually winning out and becoming the dominant one. HPC mentioned that the GFS was suffering from some convective feedback issues with the low further up the east coast. I don't think the mass of cloudiness near Cuba/JAM has anything to do with the eventual low pressure system other than to provide a stream of moisture into FL once the low in the SE GOM gets established. I'm with the Euro, CMC, NAM, and NOGAPs camp on this one as far as eventual location of low pressure in the SE GOM.

I agree with you.

[ronjon]

I see a spin and that area by Cuba is starting to look like it may be forming into something IMHO

Its at the mid-levels. As wxman57 said earlier, no low pressure developing down there and he doesn't expect anything to develop until Tuesday morning. The real player here is where the upper level low sets up and whether the LLC forms close to the ULL (ala Euro) or far away (ala GFS).

[Rainband]

I see a spin and that area by Cuba is starting to look like it may be forming into something IMHO

Its at the mid-levels. As wxman57 said earlier, no low pressure developing down there and he doesn't expect anything to develop until Tuesday morning. The real player here is where the upper level low sets up and whether the LLC forms close to the ULL (ala Euro) or far away (ala GFS).

I say it may be sooner but I am a novice

[boca]

I'm in the camp of something forming in the SE GOM. This system By Jamaica will most likely get absorbed by the futire low in the GOM.