Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[cpdaman]

I see a spin and that area by Cuba is starting to look like it may be forming into something IMHO

Its at the mid-levels. As wxman57 said earlier, no low pressure developing down there and he doesn't expect anything to develop until Tuesday morning. The real player here is where the upper level low sets up and whether the LLC forms close to the ULL (ala Euro) or far away (ala GFS).

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-79W...THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 16N76W. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.
DURING THE NEXT DAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE N OF THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT.

seems like the mid level rotation is forecast to work it's way to the surface or a low to develop right in that area

[Aric Dunn]

also the 12z euro is slower again and closes of the low much farther east than the 00z run. it now develops the low near the keys vs off the nw tip of cuba, but not till wed!!!! then deepens it and head it nnw towards panhandle Alabama area.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

I really do not see that much difference in the euro's runs, if anything is one of the most consistent since at least yesterday's 12z run.

I'm thinking the most likely scenario is a broad elongated low pressure trough with perhaps a couple of weak lows (one south of KYW and one along the FL east coast) ala the 18Z NAM run with the SE GOM low eventually winning out and becoming the dominant one. HPC mentioned that the GFS was suffering from some convective feedback issues with the low further up the east coast. I don't think the mass of cloudiness near Cuba/JAM has anything to do with the eventual low pressure system other than to provide a stream of moisture into FL once the low in the SE GOM gets established. I'm with the Euro, CMC, NAM, and NOGAPs camp on this one as far as eventual location of low pressure in the SE GOM.

I agree with you.

you know what.. just looked and i had yesterdays 00z run open for reason ... yeah the 00z today and the 12z are almost dead on ..

[Aric Dunn]

I see a spin and that area by Cuba is starting to look like it may be forming into something IMHO

Its at the mid-levels. As wxman57 said earlier, no low pressure developing down there and he doesn't expect anything to develop until Tuesday morning. The real player here is where the upper level low sets up and whether the LLC forms close to the ULL (ala Euro) or far away (ala GFS).

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-79W...THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 16N76W. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.
DURING THE NEXT DAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE N OF THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT.

seems like the mid level rotation is forecast to work it's way to the surface or a low to develop right in that area

well based on the GFS thats the solution. but the euro does not ..

[Rainband]

I say Monday morning but like I said i am a novice

[boca]

If a low at the lower levels forms in this area wouldn't most if not all the the moisture stay east of Florida in the Bahamas? What would cause this to move into the GOM with a trough in the area?

[brunota2003]

The trough can get hung up and wash out, then as the ridge builds back to the west, the storm gets nudged into Florida and back into the Gulf.

[boca]

The trough can get hung up and wash out, then as the ridge builds back to the west, the storm gets nudged into Florida and back into the Gulf.

Is that what the models are showing because it looks like that trough over Georgia/Florida border would push this system NNE ahead of it thru the Bahamas and then out.

[NEXRAD]

If a low at the lower levels forms in this area wouldn't most if not all the the moisture stay east of Florida in the Bahamas? What would cause this to move into the GOM with a trough in the area?

The trough would tend to kick the system northeast - east of Florida - if it were a mature tropical cyclone. Since we do not have any surface low present, we're looking more for areas favorable for a low to develop. The area offshore Northeast Florida is favorable for a non-tropical low to develop. The area in vicinity of Andros Island is also favorable, per present vorticity analyses. The Gulf would favor a deeper, more stacked system if the eventual surface low merges with the cut-off low left over from the trough.

For rainfall, the frontal boundary and cut-off low will be bigger players for the overall moisture control and convective focus unless a well-defined surface low can form and become more dominant. The westward movement into the Gulf is anticipated as a result of a sprawling high pressure that will develop over the Eastern US over the next few days. This feature will promote an easterly steering flow along with a blocking pattern that will keep whatever forms on a slow course.

- Jay

[Dean4Storms]

I'm in the Euro camp with this one.

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

jay should the low develop near andros or such would the ULL that forms IN E GOM .....create a lot of SW shear over the "andros" low or may it be far enough away to actually ventilate it.....in this hypothetical scenario

[NEXRAD]

Thanks for posting those images, Hurakan. I was looking at the 18Z GFS and thinking about how bizarre its treatment of the future low seemed. For one, the 18Z GFS deepens the low much more dramatically than its previous outputs, making the 18Z GFS one of the most bullish models yet. It seemed that the 18Z GFS is handling the system more like a purely tropical cyclone and is treating it as if it were to become well-organized within 24 hours. That seems unlikely to me; from the latest satellite imagery, I bet we'll still be watching something slowly organize this time tomorrow. What's also troubling with the GFS is that it deepens the low over waters that are too cool to support a tropical cyclone. From the overall setup, I'd figure that subtropical or hybrid cyclone formation would be preferred much closer to Florida and the frontal boundary, not all the way out in the Bahamas.

Strange.

- Jay

[NEXRAD]

jay should the low develop near andros or such would the ULL that forms IN E GOM .....create a lot of SW shear over the "andros" low or may it be far enough away to actually ventilate it.....in this hypothetical scenario

Using the NAM's outputs for the next 24 hours (avoiding the GFS for its latest strange output), the area near Andros would actually have some the least amount of upper level shear in the near-Florida region. This, though, is because of the mid/upper trough that's been sparking the convection near Cuba/Jamaica today. You're fully right, too, that the upper level pattern would ventilate any system to form there. I'd watch that area for the initial surface low to form. However, I'd not be surprised to see multiple circulations spin-up owing to all manner of boundary related effects, the upper feature in the Gulf of Mexico and even remnant features from weakening diurnal convective activity over Florida.

- Jay

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks for posting those images, Hurakan. I was looking at the 18Z GFS and thinking about how bizarre its treatment of the future low seemed. For one, the 18Z GFS deepens the low much more dramatically than its previous outputs, making the 18Z GFS one of the most bullish models yet. It seemed that the 18Z GFS is handling the system more like a purely tropical cyclone and is treating it as if it were to become well-organized within 24 hours. That seems unlikely to me; from the latest satellite imagery, I bet we'll still be watching something slowly organize this time tomorrow. What's also troubling with the GFS is that it deepens the low over waters that are too cool to support a tropical cyclone. From the overall setup, I'd figure that subtropical or hybrid cyclone formation would be preferred much closer to Florida and the frontal boundary, not all the way out in the Bahamas.

Strange.

- Jay

although i agree.. until one one these feature becomes a little more dominate im not going to speculate for once! since for the most part there is nothing to speak of that is at all promising at the moment! the next 12 to 24hurs will be a big eye opener as many of the pieces will be in play... hehe always wanted to say that last part great moving line.. lol

[boca]

Cpdaman and Jay thanks for the information.What I want out of all this mess is a 4" to 8 " soaking over all Florida.

[TampaFl]

here is the radar out of Gitmo, Cuba courtesy NWS Key West. There is a spin noted although there is not alot of precipitation. Thoughts & comments welcomed:

Robert

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

Good luck with that FL rain. We've had enough in SE TX thank you very much.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the radar out of Gitmo, Cuba courtesy NWS Key West. There is a spin noted although there is not alot of precipitation. Thoughts & comments welcomed:

Robert

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

its all in the mid levels at the moment ...

[boca]

here is the radar out of Gitmo, Cuba courtesy NWS Key West. There is a spin noted although there is not alot of precipitation. Thoughts & comments welcomed:

Robert

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Its amazing how primative that radar is compared to ours.It does the job though.

[Aric Dunn]

Though i would put it in perspective for everyone real fast this is the area we have to watch give or take a couple hundred miles on any direction!!!! lol hehehe