Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[JonathanBelles]

here is the radar out of Gitmo, Cuba courtesy NWS Key West. There is a spin noted although there is not alot of precipitation. Thoughts & comments welcomed:

Robert

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Its amazing how primative that radar is compared to ours.It does the job though.

Here is another one from Cuba.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... axw01a.gif

[boca]

It looks like the mid level low is between Jamiaca and the southern coast of Cuba on this sat. This could be in the SE Bahamas by Mon morning.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[cycloneye]

Guantanamo Radar

Some rotation is evident.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

[nashrobertsx]

I guess the guys that run this thing are aware of this, but it is very difficult to find this page on the GOM Low. I know this is the first of the season, but if you go to TALKING TROPICS.. then ACTIVE STORMS... you see all these adminstrative type posts and you can't find the STORM page. Is it me or what? The only way I found it was to post something, and then it was merged into the existing TOPIC, and I hit VIEW POST and it got me to what I was looking for, for over an hour. I made a new Topic because I couldn't find this one, and it was merged into this one. Tell me if it is me or is something not right and being worked on. Moderator?

[cpdaman]

how many pages do you think we can go for this "entity" by thursday nite

i say we get 110 ............

[gatorcane]

I guess the guys that run this thing are aware of this, but it is very difficult to find this page on the GOM Low. I know this is the first of the season, but if you go to TALKING TROPICS.. then ACTIVE STORMS... you see all these adminstrative type posts and you can't find the STORM page. Is it me or what? The only way I found it was to post something, and then it was merged into the existing TOPIC, and I hit VIEW POST and it got me to what I was looking for, for over an hour. I made a new Topic because I couldn't find this one, and it was merged into this one. Tell me if it is me or is something not right and being worked on. Moderator?

It will go into active storms if there is an invest tagged.

[cycloneye]

how many pages do you think we can go for this "entity" by thursday nite

i say we get 110 ............

Until a invest is up for this if it occurs,then the thread will be closed and a new invest thread will be made at Active Storms forum.In the meantime,this thread will go ahead regardless of how many pages it has.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

how many pages do you think we can go for this "entity" by thursday nite

i say we get 110 ............

entity: that which is perceived or known or inferred to have its own distinct existence (living or nonliving)

[gatorcane]

For those that want to closely watch when an INVEST is tagged, use this page:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Right now it shows no active storms.

A couple of observations on this area:

1) The convection envelope continues to decline this evening
2) But, water Vapor loop shows very little dry air around this area.
3) Its probably going to spend some time over Cuba tomorrow, which will prevent any kind or organization at the surface until it can get back over water.
4) Mean direction vector appears around NNW, on track with GFS and UKMET (something tells me its going to pass right of Florida...and not as much rain as we are anticipating, hope I am wrong and it swings back west bringing plenty of rain....)

[Rainband]

Guantanamo Radar

Some rotation is evident.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

yep that's what i see

[Rainband]

For those that want to closely watch when an INVEST is tagged, use this page:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Right now it shows no active storms.

A couple of observations on this area:

1) The convection envelope continues to decline this evening
2) But, water Vapor loop shows very little dry air around this area.
3) Its probably going to spend some time over Cuba tomorrow, which will prevent any kind or organization at the surface until it can get back over water.
4) Mean direction vector appears around NNW, on track with GFS and UKMET (something tells me its going to pass right of Florida...and not as much rain as we are anticipating, hope I am wrong and it swings back west bringing plenty of rain....)

I think it's called a diurnal min. lol I think the convection will flare up again but it looks like something may pop in the bahamas instead of the gom but again. I am a novice

[gatorcane]

I hope it is over Florida during the diurnal maximum -- we really need the rain bad and this is a golden opportunity, but is it too good to be true? As long as it passes over Florida or just west -- we will get a nice soaking otherwise, it could be a let down.

I am truly thinking positive.

[Rainband]

time will tell I say about 2am we may see some convection again.

[Bailey1777]

I thought the train of thought here was not to focus on that junk already south of Cuba but on the trough digging down into the GOM right now and that whatever surface feature we may get would pinch off from that .

[boca]

I thought the train of thought here was not to focus on that junk already south of Cuba but on the trough digging down into the GOM right now and that whatever surface feature we may get would pinch off from that .

I feel you are correct as long as the system down by Cuba doesn't get its act together.

[Aric Dunn]

that area is just a small part of what may take shape not to be disregarded just not entirely focused on...

I thought the train of thought here was not to focus on that junk already south of Cuba but on the trough digging down into the GOM right now and that whatever surface feature we may get would pinch off from that .

Though i would put it in perspective for everyone real fast this is the area we have to watch give or take a couple hundred miles on any direction!!!! lol hehehe

[Aric Dunn]

00z NAM coming in....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

just a note the 00z run of all the models will be very important as few things are beginning to come together i.e the frontal boundary is finally pushing into the central gulf and a lot of moisture is streaming northward among other things.. but the data this evening is quite a bit different than this morning and afternoon ..

the NAM already looks a little more stable not so many lows all over the place.. given its the NAM of course will see.

[MGC]

I vote for the low to form east of Florida in the Bahamas by Tuesday noon. This is a pretty strong high for this time of the year and should turn the low towards the west. Low should cross the coast around the Cape. Does not look like S Fla will not get much rain. Only a 25% chance that the system gets named. Should stay weak. If I'm wrong and the system developes west or over the Fla pen then the system has a better chance of being named out over the GOM....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

Does not look like S Fla will not get much rain.

Just to clarify, is that an intended double negative lol?

[HURAKAN]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/wrf/index.php