this morning the diving frontal boundary (in blue) is beginning to absorb a sharp trough that was in place in the central and eastern gulf yesterday and last night. This trough is helping to focus much of the developing convection this morning in the eastern and se gulf with some typical frontal type convection approaching the Florida west coast. Watch for the convection to spread SE and increase in coverage and become more concentrated around a low that should begin to develop later today near the where the sharp trough ( white dashed line ) and the front with the NE flow behind it and SE flow ahead of it come together. that whole area will move SE and deepen throughout the day and night. This area will likely a frontal type low to start but may transition rather fast. there is still some cool air advection in the low to mid-levels but this air mass is moderating as it moves south so and transition to sub-tropical is possible.
the area circled will be the area to watch and a secondary low will likely form SE of S florida but most of the dynamics are going to be associated with the low that should form in the SE gulf. now how far the area circled moves SE or how far the low for that matter would continue to move SE before slowing as the fronta washes out and high pressure build back in is a little more tricky and am not going to speculate as of right now.
the image below trying to show this set up this morning.. ( sorry about the crudeness)
Our two disturbances connect!?!?
