GOM: INVEST 90L

[KWT]

Indeed Aric there is in the way of precip out there, flooding could be a very real issue, though it will help out with the drought issue.

[Aric Dunn]

bam models are out..

[Rainband]

bam models are out..

those models are useless without a defined low and even then they aren't that good

[Weatherboy1]

I think we're going to see the Gulf low take over, personally. Seems to make the most sense, based on what I can see. I don't foresee a strong system coming out of this, but a hybrid-type storm is definitely in the realm of possibilities. All I do know is that I will NOT be getting much bike riding in the next 48 hours here in Palm Beach County!

[Aric Dunn]

hehe... they work.. just as well as the NAM lol....

[Aric Dunn]

latest Euro...12 Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Category 5]

I've been busy all day (flying to florida) but from what I've seen so far this becoming Ana is a longshot at best. Certainly stranger things have happened though.

Its certainly making my vacation a little more interesting.

[x-y-no]

Low pressure recently developed near 25.3N-84.5W (1010 mb) - just SE of the cutoff ULL - I'm going to focus on this one as both the 18Z NAM and ECM develop a vertically stacked low (at 850 and 500 mb) in the SE GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yeah, there's not much steering there but a slow eastward drift seems indicated, which means plenty of rain for us in SFL. Will be interesting to see if there's any interaction with 90L as it drifts north, or maybe a bit west of north ...

[tolakram]

There appears to be a broad, ill defined low level surface circulation near 22.5 N 76.5 W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Note that this location is supported by low level vorticity data, and it is considerably farther west than the GFS's projected location for the primary surface low. Based on the pattern, it supports the ECMWF and NAM.

Woah, where do I find more FLASH loops? Are these new for this year?

[cycloneye]

To not have scattered posts of model runs in the main 90L thread,there is a only model thread viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105328&p=1879434#p1879434 that the members can go and post all the runs from the global and numerical model suite.

[gatorcane]

I've been busy all day (flying to florida) but from what I've seen so far this becoming Ana is a longshot at best. Certainly stranger things have happened though.

Its certainly making my vacation a little more interesting.

Trying to escape all of the frost and freeze warnings for much of the NE US?

Not sure if anybody has seen this but quite a dichotomy going on today with an invest in the Bahamas/Cuba and freeze warnings for a large area of the Northeastern CONUS, kindaof like January and August all at the same time?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

[x-y-no]

latest Euro...12 Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Interesting ...

It loses 90L entirely and develops the gulf low, but without 90L there the ridging is stronger over the southeast states, so the low gets trapped and sent WNW, then N into Louisiana.

Don't think I buy it ... I think there's enough to 90L to blow that scenario and instead the Gulf low drifts over southern Florida without ever developing much.

[gatorcane]

Signs that all of the rain is finally arriving for Southern Florida........

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FLC099-182245-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0016.090518T2043Z-090518T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
443 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 442 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN THE
RESULT OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION...AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY ALSO HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STORMS REMAINING IN THE AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

LAT...LON 2695 8060 2696 8024 2673 8024 2673 8061

$$

70/DD

[Aric Dunn]

latest Euro...12 Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Interesting ...

It loses 90L entirely and develops the gulf low, but without 90L there the ridging is stronger over the southeast states, so the low gets trapped and sent WNW, then N into Louisiana.

Don't think I buy it ... I think there's enough to 90L to blow that scenario and instead the Gulf low drifts over southern Florida without ever developing much.

its for sure.. a very complex situation, i can only go off what i see..

and that is the gulf flow is larger but lacks any defined area ( very typical of frontal lows) 90L is tropical in nature but ver small and will be influenced by the gulf low just due to size. it remains to be seen which will develop faster and shear also plays a role in 90L but not with the gulf low. going to just have to watch for any signs either one is deepening.

[x-y-no]

Woah, where do I find more FLASH loops? Are these new for this year?

Yeah, they look cool, but they seem to be crashing both firefox and chrome pretty consistently for me ...

[tgenius]

I need some rain too.. my pool is under the tile line and I'm so hesitant to put water as it will just evaporate quick!

Looks like we might get a lil rain tonight... woohoo!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Using http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

What is that clear circumferential spot with pronounced narrow homogeneous thin rim at approximately 27 N by 87 W?

(newbie here)

[hurricanefloyd5]

could we see Tropical storm watches/warning for a SubTropical Storm for the florida's East Coast??????????/

[Aric Dunn]

Using http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

What is that clear circumferential spot with pronounced narrow homogeneous thin rim at approximately 27 N by 87 W?

(newbie here)

looks like the decaying frontal boundary with numerous outflow boundaries from previous storm complexes all rotating around a very very broad area of low pressure

[Evil Jeremy]

could we see Tropical storm watches/warning for a SubTropical Storm for the florida's East Coast??????????/

At this rate, it seems that whatever will form, if anything forms at all, will be weak, maybe not even tropical/subtropical, and on the other side of the state.