GOM: INVEST 90L

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the upper divergence is better for 90L, not the GOM system

yes ...

[Category 5]

heard lyons say that the 90L will ride north in the central bahamas work its way down to the surface ( i guess he doesn't think its there yet) and possibly becoming classified as subtropical tue/wed and be the dominant feature (around 930 i believe)

IMO thats its only chance.

[gatorcane]

Nice broad area of rotation is showing up off the SE FLorida coast (East of Broward/Palm Beach County line). Looks to be nearly stationary at the moment.

Radar imagery loop shows the rotation:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I'm not suggesting a surface feature is here, just an observation on how disturbed the atmosphere is around Southern Florida, with lots if little vorticities spinning around.

[floridasun78]

well got about 1.5 inches of rain since 8pm or so.....In Boca by the beach

back edge of precip is sliding SE pretty quickly .......let's see if it moves back NW by tommorrow afternoon's t'storms to soak the state

here in miami area we under flood watch it came down hard here from 8:30 to 9:45 it still raining here

[tailgater]

Take a look at the trough like feature ssw of Key west.
That's where I'd think the Main low if there's going to be one would form.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice broad area of rotation is showing up off the SE FLorida coast (East of Broward/Palm Beach County line). Looks to be nearly stationary at the moment.

Radar imagery loop shows the rotation:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I'm not suggesting a surface feature is here, just an observation on how disturbed the atmosphere is around Southern Florida, with lots if little vorticities spinning around.

yeah mentioned that a little while ago.. almost a meso feature developing

[NEXRAD]

Low to mid-level (H85 through H60) RUC2 analysis and VAD profiles from the Florida radar sites suggest that the trough's low is beginning to cut-off pretty much over the Central Peninsula. This helps to explain some of the ongoing light to moderate precipitation ongoing across Northeast Florida. The deep steering flow is easterly there, as opposed to more southerly over East Central Florida, and northerly over West Central Florida.

- Jay

[Aric Dunn]

Low to mid-level (H85 through H60) RUC2 analysis and VAD profiles from the Florida radar sites suggest that the trough's low is beginning to cut-off pretty much over the Central Peninsula. This helps to explain some of the ongoing light to moderate precipitation ongoing across Northeast Florida. The deep steering flow is easterly there, as opposed to more southerly over East Central Florida, and northerly over West Central Florida.

- Jay

yep .. right in line with the UKmet.. well close..

[cycloneye]

00 UTC TAFB Surface Analysis:

[Aric Dunn]

not surprising they initialized a low for 90L it was pretty clear before the sun went down,....

[gatorcane]

Radar loop across Florida suggests the progression of rain eastward has slowed some during the past couple of hours. We can deduce two important points from this observation:

1) Rains in SE FL may last several more hours into the late night hours only adding to the generous totals so far.

2) The trough is starting to lose its punch and this could be sign that 90L and the GOM disturbance may not make a whole lot more progress eastward.

[ROCK]

nice strong shear in the GOM right now....dont see it letting up anytime soon in order for something to stack....

[NEXRAD]

Radar loop across Florida suggests the progression of rain westward has slowed some during the past couple of hours. We can deduce two important points from this observation:

1) Rains in SE FL may last several more hours into the late night hours only adding to the generous totals so far.

2) The trough is starting to lose its punch and we could see a sign things with 90L and the GOM disturbance may not make a whole lot more progress westward.

Fair points, but for the second one a weaker trough would favor the systems capacity to move more towards the west owing to a rebound in the Atlantic ridging. Additionally, the trough isn't losing its punch from what I'm seeing; it's instead closing off the well-advertised cut-off low. As this low cuts off and retrogrades SW, it will combine with the weak low SW of the Keys to allow for the convergence zone along the SE Florida coast to likewise slide more north and west.

- Jay

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS coming in, showing 2 lows at 12 hours, one looks to be in the FL straits, the other in the SE Bahamas.

[HurricaneBelle]

The KTBW (Tampa) radar loop pretty clearly shows the upper low cutting off and spinning over Central Florida.

[gatorcane]

Radar loop across Florida suggests the progression of rain westward has slowed some during the past couple of hours. We can deduce two important points from this observation:

1) Rains in SE FL may last several more hours into the late night hours only adding to the generous totals so far.

2) The trough is starting to lose its punch and we could see a sign things with 90L and the GOM disturbance may not make a whole lot more progress westward.

Fair points, but for the second one a weaker trough would favor the systems capacity to move more towards the west owing to a rebound in the Atlantic ridging. Additionally, the trough isn't losing its punch from what I'm seeing; it's instead closing off the well-advertised cut-off low. As this low cuts off and retrogrades SW, it will combine with the weak low SW of the Keys to allow for the convergence zone along the SE Florida coast to likewise slide more north and west.

- Jay

I agree and good points. I also meant "eastward" instead of westward above, corrected in my original post.

[NEXRAD]

Thanks, Gatorcane. I was sure you meant "eastward," but wanted to post to check on it.

- Jay

[Evil Jeremy]

Radar loop across Florida suggests the progression of rain eastward has slowed some during the past couple of hours. We can deduce two important points from this observation:

1) Rains in SE FL may last several more hours into the late night hours only adding to the generous totals so far.

2) The trough is starting to lose its punch and this could be sign that 90L and the GOM disturbance may not make a whole lot more progress eastward.

Very good points, and it will be interesting to see how the trough acts throughout the next couple of hours, and how the diurnal minimum effects 90L.

[CrazyC83]

From my eye, the circulation center seems to be in the Gulf. But I don't think it is closed.

[floridasun78]

Radar loop across Florida suggests the progression of rain eastward has slowed some during the past couple of hours. We can deduce two important points from this observation:

1) Rains in SE FL may last several more hours into the late night hours only adding to the generous totals so far.

2) The trough is starting to lose its punch and this could be sign that 90L and the GOM disturbance may not make a whole lot more progress eastward.

rain here have not stop in miami near airport