Possible development in EPac

[RL3AO]

Theres some spin around 8N, 107W. Nothing too impressive.

The GFS does something with it (actually brings it into Mexico in a week or so), but the other models are developing it.

Might be something to watch.

[cycloneye]

I thought the EPAC would be starting like a lion as it appears conditions will be favorable for a more active season than last year in that basin.Lets see if this is the trigger for the season there.

[KWT]

Does look a little interesting, convection is out there but at the moment it is rather scattered it has to be said, still over the next few days does need to be watched just in case.

[HURAKAN]

90E could be declared sooner than later.

[cycloneye]

From EPAC discussion.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT IS LIGHT AND HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SHARP TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE
HAS RECENTLY BEEN SUGGESTED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS BROAD
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SLOWLY W INTO
THE WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...BEFORE
BEGINNING TO LIFT NE AND E LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN
THIS TIME FRAME.

[KWT]

Yep this looks rather interesting, got some good convection and I think if it can it won't be too long before we get an invest out of this, of course this won't get too much attention because most people just don't care

[boca]

If the system develops and moves towards Mexico than more people would care especially if it crosses Mexico and spins something up in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

If the system develops and moves towards Mexico than more people would care especially if it crosses Mexico ans spuns something else in the Caribbean.

That is what GFS shows in the long range (See Long /Medium Range Models thread).

[Chacor]

The last time there was no May EPac TC was in 1999.

[KWT]

Indeed they would but its just the GFS showing this, the ECM does also develop a weak system from this area but drifts it just a little to the west and eventually weakens it again.

Still odds look better for this to develop then the Gulf of Mexico system at the moment.

[cycloneye]

The last time there was no May EPac TC was in 1999.

1999 was a below average season.

[KWT]

Yeah plus it was on the back of a La Nina as well which is rather different to what seems to be occuring in the EPAC which is the development of a El Nino, perhaps a fairly potent one by the winter.

[Cyclone1]

Looking interesting. I'm going to try my best stay up to date on both the ATL and EPAC basins this year. ;D

[Category 5]

Anybody have a shear map? CIMSS is giving me problems.

[srainhoutx]

Anybody have a shear map? CIMSS is giving me problems.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[RL3AO]

Now has a surface low attached with it.

[cycloneye]

And has the first Tropical Weather Outlook.

783
ABPZ20 KNHC 201748
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Category 5]

And has the first Tropical Weather Outlook.

783
ABPZ20 KNHC 201748
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

I interpret this as "soon to be 90E"

[KWT]

Yeah this looks likely to become 90E I'd have thought in the next 24hrs.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH