Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

The EPAC season may have its first system by Memorial Day weekend if GFS is right.

[Recurve]

KW mentioning non-tropical low enhancing rain chances in Florida through Monday:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH THE APPEARANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL VARIETY SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS EVENTS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A RISE IN POPS TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE
DAY AND 40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASED RAIN CHANCE IS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE
FRIDAY AND THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IN THE FORECAST BUT SINCE
THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT HAVE OPTED FOR THIS SOLUTION. WITH
THIS IN MIND THE UPPER LOW IN THE TRADES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TAIL OF
THE CONUS TROUGH. AS THIS LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IT WILL BE
BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE CONUS TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS KEEPS THE SERVICE AREA IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MONDAY. THEREAFTER POPS WILL BE MORE ALONG CLIMATOLOGY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

[cycloneye]

For the past few days,all the global models haved been showing a Non-Tropical-Low in the Central Atlantic,and they continue to show it,some more pronnounced than others.The big question is if this hangs for enough days out there,may make the transition to sub-tropical or not?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

Ok,dont shoot me as this is 16 days out, but I am only posting this to see if there is consistency from GFS in the next week and if others models join in the Medium range area later.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

My silence because of the long range speaks volumes,watch loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Well,GFS continues to show in the long range a system shooting out of the Western Caribbean moving northward.Of course,the old rule is more consistency and if other models follow.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

06Z really aggressive on this GOM disturbance for next week (not the current disturbance, this is another one):

It almost looks like it is pulling an EPAC disturbance NE through Mexico into the BOC...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS farther right on this run through FL Straits/Southern FL.

Indeed this system appears to develop from an EPAC disturbance/remnants crossing over to the BOC and shooting of to the ENE or NE:

Could be more rain for Florida if it verifies. Still a long way out and looking for other model support.

[cycloneye]

It looks like things may be a little more favorable for cyclogeneris in the Caribbean as a MJO pulse enters the Basin by the end of the month.But as I haved said here,the rule is consistency of GFS and more models joining.Lets see in the comming days the models reach a consensus or this is a phantom scenario.

[boca]

Today's 06z GFS run shows the same as when gatorcane posted the 12z run yesterday.It shows that system moving ENE by 120 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

odays 0z ECMWF keeps the current Culf system weak and heads inland in LA. It also develops the EPAC disturbance but doesn't really do all that much with it.

[cycloneye]

In this loop of the 12z GFS,you can see from where all the energy to develop a system in the W.Caribbean will come from (The EPAC).The proccess starts one week from today.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

In this loop of the 12z GFS,you can see from where all the energy to develop a system in the W.Caribbean will come from (The EPAC).The proccess starts one week from today.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yes as I said earlier its crossing over something from the EPAC -- its a unique situation with a low likelyhood of coming to fruition.

However, if we see a few more models come on board (namely the ECMWF), it could be our next invest and we will start a new thread to discuss it.

It passes south of Florida on this run, through the Straits and into the Bahamas.

[HURAKAN]

That's Arlene, 1981-like.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: That's Arlene, 1981-like.

Similar but further north. You can see Arlene passed farther south:

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: That's Arlene, 1981-like.

Note this track is climatologically favored for end-of-May systems.

[Category 5]

a long way out, but a scary prospect.

[OpieStorm]

a long way out, but a scary prospect.

Where's Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

I have been monitoring the GFS for the last 4 days with the east pac system either developing and making the trip across central America or just the energy from it.. then developing into a system in the Caribbean and gulf .. for 3 days it has consistently been doing this .. remember last few years when the gfs does this .. typically it gets it right at least in terms of something being there... so yeah would watch for it.. and yes its far out but again gfs is know for that sometimes..

[Category 5]

I have been monitoring the GFS for the last 4 days with the east pac system either developing and making the trip across central America or just the energy from it.. then developing into a system in the Caribbean and gulf .. for 3 days it has consistently been doing this .. remember last few years when the gfs does this .. typically it gets it right at least in terms of something being there... so yeah would watch for it.. and yes its far out but again gfs is know for that sometimes..

It happened last year.