Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Will the Storm Get Named?
Updated: Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:46 AM

The storm that will continue to pound Florida today is churning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With the official start of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season right around the corner, it cannot be ruled out that the storm gains at least some tropical characteristics.

A storm that becomes partially tropical is classified as a subtropical system. It acquires a name off the official tropical storm list when its maximum sustained winds reach or exceed 39 mph. Ana would be assigned to the first named system in the Atlantic Basin this year.

While it cannot be ruled out, AccuWeather.com is not forecasting the storm to gain tropical characteristics. The storm is currently in an environment where its center is colder than its surroundings. The opposite should take place within the structure of a hurricane. The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, well away from land, would support warming within the storm's center. The system, however, will likely not spend enough time over this warm water.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski

[HURAKAN]

In 72 hrs the NHC is turning it to the NE.

[cycloneye]

!2 UTC Surface Analysis:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
Thunderstorms and convection firing on the East Side
of the 1007 mb surface low near SW FL.

Weak spiral bands circumnavigating the surface low center:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[cycloneye]

In 96 hours the GFS has the low making landfall.

[ronjon]

From HPC this morning:

WHILE OP MODELS AND VARIOUS GUIDANCE CONT TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES
IDENTIFYING OR AGREEING UPON WHERE THE SFC CENTER OR CENTERS OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SHORT RANGE NEAR FLORIDA OR SOUTHEASTWARD
NEARLY ALL AGREE UPON A STARTING POINT FOR MEDIUM RANGE NEAR THE
MS DELTA BY DAY3 SAT. MOST PHASED DIAGRAMING INDICATES THIS TO BE
A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL LOW BY DAYS 3-4 WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOSITURE...PWS IN TE 2 INCH RANGE AND SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH WILL
BRING HVY RAINS TO THE LA/MS COAST AND DELTA AND UP THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB in video says could become warm core when it reaches loop current, cool shelf waters ensures East Coast Florida the "winner" as far as wind and rain goes when system heads towards Louisiana.


Didn't say "will" become warm core, said "could".

[KWT]

96hrs certainly does give it enough time to at least become of interest, it took Andrea about 3 days in 2007 to change and so there is enough time for it to transfer at least towards subtropical. Will be interesting to see if it can keep the shallow convection going around itself.

[micktooth]

In 96 hours the GFS has the low making landfall.

I would not like to see this in August!

[Category 5]

This is a very nice looking Extratropical Low. Might be desktop worthy.

[Bailey1777]

Where would you pinpoint our surface feature at and is it moving?

[jlauderdal]

JB in video says could become warm core when it reaches loop current, cool shelf waters ensures East Coast Florida the "winner" as far as wind and rain goes when system heads towards Louisiana.


Didn't say "will" become warm core, said "could".

hes covered

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope we do not get tornadoes...those are much scarier than even
hurricanes IMO...
storms seem to be rotating about the low center-
and really cold air aloft--> may increase tornado risk in FL.

[Category 5]

JB in video says could become warm core when it reaches loop current, cool shelf waters ensures East Coast Florida the "winner" as far as wind and rain goes when system heads towards Louisiana.


Didn't say "will" become warm core, said "could".

hes covered

Exactly, so people dont call him out when hes wrong again.

This is a clear cut extratropical system, its frontal and eating dry air, we wont be seeing a tropical system.

[Stormcenter]

JB always covers all of his bases. Anyway I agree with your post.

JB in video says could become warm core when it reaches loop current, cool shelf waters ensures East Coast Florida the "winner" as far as wind and rain goes when system heads towards Louisiana.


Didn't say "will" become warm core, said "could".

hes covered

Exactly, so people dont call him out when hes wrong again.

This is a clear cut extratropical system, its frontal and eating dry air, we wont be seeing a tropical system.

[Category 5]

The lower convergence chart clearly indicates it's frontal.

[cycloneye]

A big mess it looks,but for sure it will dampen vacationers that planned to be on the beaches this Memorial Day Weekend.

[gatorcane]

That swirl WNW of the Low center, is that the remnants of 90L rotating around the Low? If it is that is pretty neat...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Category 5]

A big mess it looks,but for sure it will dampen vacationers that planned to be on the beaches this Memorial Day Weekend.

am I losing my vision or do I see more that one circulation?