Noaa 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Live and P3 Tour

[Aric Dunn]

you can watch it live at

http://www.ipr365.com

[cycloneye]

Thank you Aric for bringing the feed for the members to see and hear as if we are there in person.

[Aric Dunn]

Thank you Aric for bringing the feed for the members to see and hear as if we are there in person.

No problem...thats our goal !!

[cycloneye]

NOAA 2009 Forecast=9-14 Named Storms,4-7 Hurricanes,1-3 Major canes

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... icane.html

[Evil Jeremy]

In my opinion, this is a bland forecast. There is a big difference between 9 and 14 storms, and it seems to me like the NHC could not make their mind up on if this is going to be an active season or not.

[boca]

In my opinion, this is a bland forecast. There is a big difference between 9 and 14 storms, and it seems to me like the NHC could not make their mind up on if this is going to be an active season or not.

It looks like their just playing it safe due to the upcoming EL Nino and its possible outcome on this season and yes its bland.

[jlauderdal]

NOAA 2009 Forecast=9-14 Named Storms,4-7 Hurricanes,1-3 Major canes

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... icane.html

it could be too low of a count, Im covered

[artist]

but you know the insurance industry will go with the 14-7-3 for rates!
And what do the forecasts serve? I honestly wonder why it was ever started.

[RL3AO]

And what do the forecasts serve? I honestly wonder why it was ever started.

To try to improve our knowledge and ability to forecast long range tropical weather.

[artist]

that I do understand but why announce it to the public and thus the industry? Why not keep it internal.

[cycloneye]

Here are the three main factors that they say 2009 have uncertainties on its outcome.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

50% chance of an average season. 25% chance of an above average season. 25% chance of an below average season. =

In other words they have no idea what will happen this coming season. Sorry, but LOL.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html

[Derek Ortt]

they need to stop using 10ish storms as a "normal" season

the mean since 1995 (the last 14 seasons) is 15. That is a long-enough sample size, IMO, to be active

[caneflyer]

they need to stop using 10ish storms as a "normal" season

the mean since 1995 (the last 14 seasons) is 15. That is a long-enough sample size, IMO, to be active

Climatologists generally use 30-40 years to define a climatological normal. And with the Atlantic basin featuring a strong multi-decadal signal, it's even more important to cover both the ups and the downs in any definition of "normal".

[MGC]

There should be a normal for the warm phase and a normal for the cool phase. Combining the two and dividing by two don't get it. We've been in a warm phase since 1995 and the number or named systems have except for a El Nino season been above the long term average. Yet another misleading statistic.....MGC

[wxman57]

There should be a normal for the warm phase and a normal for the cool phase. Combining the two and dividing by two don't get it. We've been in a warm phase since 1995 and the number or named systems have except for a El Nino season been above the long term average. Yet another misleading statistic.....MGC

A number of years ago, I thought that there might be such a difference and I added up the number of named storms during warm and cool AMO cycles to calculate the "normal" value. What I found is that there were more named storms during the cool AMO cycle by about 0.2 named storms per season. So there's really no difference. What WAS different was that there were an average of 4 major hurricanes during warm AMO seasons vs. 2 major hurricanes on average during cool AMO cycles. So a warm AMO doesn't mean more named storms, just that more of them may reach major hurricane strength.

[wxman57]

they need to stop using 10ish storms as a "normal" season

the mean since 1995 (the last 14 seasons) is 15. That is a long-enough sample size, IMO, to be active

Chris Landsea estimates 2-3 missed storms per season in the past, bringing the average per season up to 12. In the last 10-15 years, the NHC has been very generous at naming storms. Plus, they're now naming subtropical storms. So even 12 may be a bit low for "normal".

[jinftl]

I would contend that a seaon with 8 named storms, 6 of which are landfalling hurricanes in the u.s. or caribbean is both 'busier' in human and economic costs than a season with 16 storms, of which 14 are 'fish'.

Steering patterns are key to determining how many storms will menace the coastlines....that is not something that any of these pre-season forecasts gives much insight into. Forecasts that call for development closer to the coasts (i.e., accuweather) this season are concerning...obviously, the more bullets that are lurking closer to home, the less likelihood they can all be dodged.

[wxman57]

One of our worst years here in Houston was 1983, and there were only 4 named storms that year. Betsy flooded New Orleans in 1965, and there were only 7 named storms. Doesn't matter if a season has 4 or 20, it's where they hit that determines how bad a season is.

I would contend that a seaon with 8 named storms, 6 of which are landfalling hurricanes in the u.s. or caribbean is both 'busier' in human and economic costs than a season with 16 storms, of which 14 are 'fish'.

Steering patterns are key to determining how many storms will menace the coastlines....that is not something that any of these pre-season forecasts gives much insight into. Forecasts that call for development closer to the coasts (i.e., accuweather) this season are concerning...obviously, the more bullets that are lurking closer to home, the less likelihood they can all be dodged.