Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

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boca
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#201 Postby boca » Thu May 21, 2009 11:03 am

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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#202 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 21, 2009 11:06 am

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Image

Thats a well defined low.
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#203 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 21, 2009 11:37 am

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#204 Postby brunota2003 » Thu May 21, 2009 11:44 am

The low appears to be moving to the NNW at about 5 mph (guesstimate, maybe less). There is also some convection starting to go up on the NW side of the low. Will be interesting to watch to see if it just dies, or if the convection keeps developing.
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#205 Postby tailgater » Thu May 21, 2009 11:51 am

Check out the difference in the 200 mb Vorticty ite last 24 hrs.
yesterday
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today
Image


Image

I think it deserves a bear watch
Last edited by tailgater on Thu May 21, 2009 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#206 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 21, 2009 11:58 am

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#207 Postby BigA » Thu May 21, 2009 12:01 pm

It seems that as the low moves north the SST's will decrease but so will the shear.
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#208 Postby tolakram » Thu May 21, 2009 12:06 pm

Sure does appear to be making a slow transition to something, let's say, less than non tropical. :)

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html


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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#209 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 21, 2009 12:12 pm

If it continues to organize,I would not rule out a invest tagged this afternoon or evening.
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Re:

#210 Postby Stormcenter » Thu May 21, 2009 12:16 pm

I mentioned the same things (more northerly trackand very slow movement) in an early post. Anyway it really still does look sickly. The water only gets cooler as it heads more north. Oh well we shall see.


brunota2003 wrote:The low appears to be moving to the NNW at about 5 mph (guesstimate, maybe less). There is also some convection starting to go up on the NW side of the low. Will be interesting to watch to see if it just dies, or if the convection keeps developing.
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#211 Postby Stormcenter » Thu May 21, 2009 12:26 pm

It sure looks like it's headed on a more northerly track.
I'm not so sure this is going to make landfall on the SE LA. coastline.
It looks more like maybe MS. and eastward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu May 21, 2009 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#212 Postby Javlin » Thu May 21, 2009 12:28 pm

It is holding it's own and that's about it for the moment to me at least.The fact that we have 20kt shear over it now is making it tough to keep any convection to futher aide the engine.I think we along the NGOM be in for some fun winds and rain just a PIA it's on Memorial W/E :flag:
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#213 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 21, 2009 12:29 pm

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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#214 Postby N2Storms » Thu May 21, 2009 12:30 pm

[quote="Javlin"]It is holding it's own and that's about it for the moment to me at least.The fact that we have 20kt shear over it now is making it tough to keep any convection to futher aide the engine.I think we along the NGOM be in for some fun winds and rain just a PIA it's on Memorial W/E :flag:[/quote]


I think folks on the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts are going to be in for some heavy rain this weekend no matter if it makes it to LA or a little more east of that
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#215 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 21, 2009 12:42 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. BANDS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS N
OF 27N E OF 90W. THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W HAS PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH 10-15 KT N WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 28N85W. THE NE GULF
AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE WHILE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT NW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER.
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#216 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu May 21, 2009 12:43 pm

The heaviest spiral band of this low is right on the SW FL coast.
It does look like a slow transition to a tropical low is taking place.
Looks close to the loop current. I think we may get a minimal
tropical storm out of this IF it remains over the loop current.
Water temperatures of 78+ will maintain a minimal TS provided
shear is low.
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Re:

#217 Postby Stormcenter » Thu May 21, 2009 12:49 pm

An optimistic call (minimal TS) I must say but hey crazier things have happened.
By the way the Gale warnings along the LA. & MS, has been dropped.



Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The heaviest spiral band of this low is right on the SW FL coast.
It does look like a slow transition to a tropical low is taking place.
Looks close to the loop current. I think we may get a minimal
tropical storm out of this IF it remains over the loop current.
Water temperatures of 78+ will maintain a minimal TS provided
shear is low.
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#218 Postby Stormcenter » Thu May 21, 2009 12:56 pm

So what is this spin headed toward the FL. panhandle?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
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Re: Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

#219 Postby poof121 » Thu May 21, 2009 1:19 pm

Stormcenter wrote:So what is this spin headed toward the FL. panhandle?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12


Is that the upper low?
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#220 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 21, 2009 1:34 pm

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