Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

[cycloneye]

[poof121]

Could this low be intensifying further? Low has passed to the west of 42003 (Winds are now SSE.), but pressure is dropping again.

[storm92405]

Hi all. I am new to the board but have been reading everyones posts. IMO the low level swirl you see is just a vorticy rotating around a commom center. It is moving north now but soon will start moving back west again. I have been watching it since yesterday and it has now completed a 360 degree rotation around the common center. There maybe other small vorticies but I think this one is the most dominate one. If it takes over it will start to deepen even further and more orginization will occur. Just keep watching it you will see what I have been seeing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

FLC015-027-211945-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090521T1945Z/
DESOTO FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
336 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
CHARLOTTE AND SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARBOUR HEIGHTS...
OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF ARCADIA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT OGDEN.
HARBOUR HEIGHTS.

[Stormcenter]

When you say "deepening" how much are you anticipating?

Hi all. I am new to the board but have been reading everyones posts. IMO the low level swirl you see is just a vorticy rotating around a commom center. It is moving north now but soon will start moving back west again. I have been watching it since yesterday and it has now completed a 360 degree rotation around the common center. There maybe other small vorticies but I think this one is the most dominate one. If it takes over it will start to deepen even further and more orginization will occur. Just keep watching it you will see what I have been seeing.

[ROCK]

Hi all. I am new to the board but have been reading everyones posts. IMO the low level swirl you see is just a vorticy rotating around a commom center. It is moving north now but soon will start moving back west again. I have been watching it since yesterday and it has now completed a 360 degree rotation around the common center. There maybe other small vorticies but I think this one is the most dominate one. If it takes over it will start to deepen even further and more orginization will occur. Just keep watching it you will see what I have been seeing.

yep, small vortices rotating around the main center. Its trying to tap the GOM and go warm core.....IMO, its getting close to do so. If any convection is able to sustain itself over the center this could go TD.....I don't think a TS is in the cards though....

[storm92405]

The deepening all depends on it the vorticy will take dominace then only it can take place. It may not be very much given this time of the year climatology and shallow area of warm water. Overall it is more orginized than yesterday it just may take awhile to get going.

[lrak]

Hi everyone,

Our local met said we should be getting a good size swell sometime this weekend. Not much wind and I'm getting worried it won't happen any opinions? Surf up?

Thanks,

karl aka lrak

[Stormcenter]

It continues to look like this mess is headed more northward and
in my opinion it still has a long way to go if it wants to be classified.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Bailey1777]

I think it's fixing to get a drink, see all that moisture moving up off the Yucitan, not going to be a monster but I think it may turn into an invest. soon.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"]It continues to look like this mess is headed more northward and
in my opinion it still has a long way to go if it wants to be classified.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html[/quote]


I agree w / you...this thing is not going to make it to warm core status...and it really doesn't look like it's going to cause much problem significant rainfall amounts either...it is going to be just enough to mess up the Memorial Day Weekend plans for beach goers and those w / cookout plans...other than that I really don't see anything to get excited about at all. Like you said, it has some serious work to do if it wants make it to TD status...

Also, I can't really tell what way this thing is going, it really looks like it is just meandering ever so slightly to the NW...

[Ed Mahmoud]

It continues to look like this mess is headed more northward and
in my opinion it still has a long way to go if it wants to be classified.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

I agree w / you...this thing is not going to make it to warm core status...and it really doesn't look like it's going to cause much problem significant rainfall amounts either...it is going to be just enough to mess up the Memorial Day Weekend plans for beach goers and those w / cookout plans...other than that I really don't see anything to get excited about at all. Like you said, it has some serious work to do if it wants make it to TD status...

Also, I can't really tell what way this thing is going, it really looks like it is just meandering ever so slightly to the NW...

The good news is, Louisiana doesn't really have beaches. Grand Isle is about it for LA beach action. Mississippi, different story.

[storm92405]

We have several beaches here in SW Louisiana.

[wxman57]

Hi all. I am new to the board but have been reading everyones posts. IMO the low level swirl you see is just a vorticity rotating around a common center. It is moving north now but soon will start moving back west again. I have been watching it since yesterday and it has now completed a 360 degree rotation around the common center. There maybe other small vorticies but I think this one is the most dominate one. If it takes over it will start to deepen even further and more organization will occur. Just keep watching it you will see what I have been seeing.

Hi! And welcome! I agree with your assessment. It's already moved west and is now starting to turn southward as it dissipates. I do think it has some potential to acquire convection near the center prior to moving ashore within about 48 hours. Will it be enough time for a named STD or STS? Maybe. But winds are going to be decreasing as high pressure to the north moves off to the east. And it'll start moving over water that's not as warm in another 24 hours. So just a short window for development before it moves ashore Saturday.

[wxman57]

Hi everyone,

Our local met said we should be getting a good size swell sometime this weekend. Not much wind and I'm getting worried it won't happen any opinions? Surf up?

Thanks,

karl aka lrak

The south TX Coast is already receiving a 5ft easterly swell from the strong easterly flow across the NE Gulf. I don't think that the swell will get much above 6-7 feet in Corpus Christi over the next 24 hours. Beyond then, the swell should begin to diminish.

[storm92405]

The most dominate vortex looks like to me that it has started its westerly track again. So as of yet there is no consolidation therefore no strengthening. Until then we have to wait and see.

[Bailey1777]

Hey Storm are you talking about that little vortex that keeps halling butt counter-clockwise around the broader center of circulation?

[KWT]

There is some convection not far away, it is of the popcorn type but remember subtropical systems do tend to be like this at first as we saw with Andrea in 2007. I wouldn't rule it out at least getting an invest, whether or not it has the time to go the full hog though who knows, its going to be tight I reckon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We have several beaches here in SW Louisiana.

I've seen what is called a beach West of Cameron...


Almost everything shower wise is staying East of the center. Very pretty for a low cloud swirl, however.

[storm92405]

Hey Ed it is named Holly Beach all the houses and structures was wiped out but the water tower for Hurricane Rita but we are making a come back.

Yes that swirl you see is just a vorticy within the main area of low pressure it is not the exact center. Until one developes you will not see alot of strengthening if at all. You can see another smaller vortex just south of the big one about 40-50 miles or so. Just estimating on that one.