#8 Postby salmon123 » Thu May 21, 2009 11:32 pm
AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL. A 220015Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT A DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OUT OF THIS
AREA OF BROAD TURNING. HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AND WEAK AT THE CENTER. CURRENTLY THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS BIASED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE LEAVING THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE NEARLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONGER SOUTH-
WESTERLIES FLANK THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE
WEAKER EASTERLIES CLOSE OFF THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND ENVIRON-
MENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, INCREASED CONVECTION, AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
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