IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 11:00 PM EDT, July 29, 2003
General Pattern: The current weather in the tropics continues to be dominated by the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and upper level shear. The SAL is predominate in the Atlantic at the moment and is preventing convection from blossoming north of 15N and east of 60W. Upper level westerlies are located north of 15N and stretch from the Gulf of Mexico to Africa. Upper level winds should improve for development by the weekend with easterlies stretching from Africa to the islands at the outflow level.
Gulf of Mexico: No significant tropical activity is occurring in the Gulf of Mexico.
Caribbean Sea: An upper level trough in the NW Caribbean is showing no signs of organization or digging down to the surface.
The surface trough we've been monitoring near the Bahamas has continued to dissipate. There are no signs of organization and thunderstorm activity is beginning to diminish. Tropical storm formation is not expected from this feature.
The remnants of Hurricane Danny are located near 31N and 51W. The system is moving west at about 5-10 kts. Upper level conditions are favorable for development. However, the lack of Hurricane Heat Potential will likely inhibit development. As Danny begins to move around the periphery of the subtropical ridge, upper level conditions will become more hostile. Tropical development is not expected.
A weak upper level low located near 20N and 35W is forcing sinking air south towards a westward moving wave near 40W. Lack of instability will inhibit thunderstorm formation. Conditions are not condusive for development.
A strong tropical low is now located near 10N and 25W. Convection has been persistent, even with the low now over the open waters of the Atlantic. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is being enhanced by the negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation and moisture out ahead of the low is abundant. Upper level winds are favorable for development. A strong easterly jet south of the low will enhance the equatorward outflow channel. This low will need to be closely monitored for signs of tropical storm formation. A more poleward motion is expected to begin within 72-96 hours.
For a basic and general rundown, refer to our tropical weather outlook. These are unofficial products, and are not from the NHC.
