Bay of Bengal: Severe Cyclonic Storm AILA (02B)

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see the 21Z JTWC forecast. Nothing on their website either, though their latest warning siad next one was 21Z

[HURAKAN]

TPIO10 PGTW 250000

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (AILA)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 20.3N

D. 88.1E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAP OF .85 ON LOG 10
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1933Z 19.6N 87.9E AMSR
24/2023Z 19.8N 87.9E TRMM


AMES

[HURAKAN]

Impressive storm.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (AILA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (AILA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.1N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.8N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 88.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (AILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE CONSOLIDATED AROUND A MORE
SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A
242023Z 85H TRMM PASS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TC 02B IS
BEING STEERED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BY A MID-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 KNOTS ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA
BEFORE TAU 12. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

Code: Select all

FKIN20 VIDP 221600

DTG :  20090524/1200Z
TCAC:  NEW DELHI
TC  :  AILA
NR  :  01


PSN :  N1830 E08830
MOV :  N07KT
C   :  986HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT GUSTING TO 45KT


FCST PSN+6HRS: 241800 N 1930 E08830
MAX WIND+12HRS: 40KT GUSTING TO 50KT
FCST PSN+12HRS: 250000 N 2030 E08830
MAX WIND+12HRS: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 250600 N 2130 E08830
MAX WIND+18HRS: 50KT GUSTING TO 60KT

FCST PSN+24HRS: 251200 N 2230 E 08830(OVER LAND)

MAX WIND+24HRS: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT

NEXT MSG:   20090524/1800Z


[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

25/0230 UTC 20.5N 88.1E T4.0/4.0 AILA -- Bay of Bengal

Hurricane intensity according to Dvorak.

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

FKIN20 VIDP 221600

DTG :  20090524/1200Z
TCAC:  NEW DELHI
TC  :  AILA
NR  :  01


PSN :  N1830 E08830
MOV :  N07KT
C   :  986HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT GUSTING TO 45KT


FCST PSN+6HRS: 241800 N 1930 E08830
MAX WIND+12HRS: 40KT GUSTING TO 50KT
FCST PSN+12HRS: 250000 N 2030 E08830
MAX WIND+12HRS: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 250600 N 2130 E08830
MAX WIND+18HRS: 50KT GUSTING TO 60KT

FCST PSN+24HRS: 251200 N 2230 E 08830(OVER LAND)

MAX WIND+24HRS: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT

NEXT MSG:   20090524/1800Z


Uhm, that's from 1200 UTC yesterday. Check the DTG.

[HURAKAN]

It will be very close for the massively populated Kolkata.

[HURAKAN]

Eye continues to become more visible.

[Derek Ortt]

While Calcutta will take a solid hit... it just got the free pass of the year that this thing is not coming in closer to 18Z... but coming in closer to 7Z. They join Miami as very lucky cities that rapidly intensifying TCs do not have 12 more hours over the water

[salmon123]

TXIO21 KNES 250313


A. 02B (AILA)

B. 25/0230Z

C. 20.5N

D. 88.1E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 11/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 3.5. FT BASED ON PT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYEWALL.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2329Z 20.0N 88.0E AMSU


...TURK

[Derek Ortt]

well... we know that an eye means 40KT according to the IMD...

[salmon123]

Its over 50KT at 65mph

[Derek Ortt]

the 55KT is the JWTC estimate. IMD is at 40

[Category 5]

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 14.50 N AND LONGITUDE BETWEEN 83.00 E TO 92.50 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -700C TO -800C AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

wait, how can the convection be colder than absolute zero?

[Chacor]

Its over 50KT at 65mph

Wunderground graphics use JTWC information, not official RSMC bulletins.