EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE
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just got done looking at the 1 km loop ... there is a rapidly organizing tight low taking shape right now.. the next big question and will determine development.. of sub tropical .. is if we get enough convection firing near that center ( from the trend over the last few hours it seems to be trying to do just that) .. pretty sure the temp gradient is there.. next couple hours are going to be interesting, convection should begin to firing here very shortly.. low level convergence is up quite a bit from earlier as well as upper divergence..very interesting
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- cycloneye
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RECON : Tropical Depression ONE
First mission will depart at 1:30 PM EDT on Wednesday.
Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 26 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-002
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.
Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 26 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-002
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L
12z GFDL
WHXX04 KWBC 261724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 26
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.6 75.5 355./14.0
6 30.2 75.4 12./ 6.6
12 31.0 75.5 352./ 8.2
18 32.1 75.4 4./10.9
24 33.2 74.9 23./11.9
30 34.3 74.3 32./11.9
36 35.4 73.6 29./12.3
42 36.8 72.6 37./15.7
48 38.0 71.1 53./17.4
54 39.0 69.3 59./17.2
60 40.0 67.6 61./16.1
66 40.9 65.7 63./16.9
72 41.9 64.4 54./14.4
78 43.1 62.9 50./16.1
STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
WHXX04 KWBC 261724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 26
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.6 75.5 355./14.0
6 30.2 75.4 12./ 6.6
12 31.0 75.5 352./ 8.2
18 32.1 75.4 4./10.9
24 33.2 74.9 23./11.9
30 34.3 74.3 32./11.9
36 35.4 73.6 29./12.3
42 36.8 72.6 37./15.7
48 38.0 71.1 53./17.4
54 39.0 69.3 59./17.2
60 40.0 67.6 61./16.1
66 40.9 65.7 63./16.9
72 41.9 64.4 54./14.4
78 43.1 62.9 50./16.1
STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L
What do the models say in terms of possible form/intensity along with the forecast tracks?
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L
jinftl wrote:What do the models say in terms of possible form/intensity along with the forecast tracks?
still waiting on most of the guidance...ships takes it tp 43 kts i believe..
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- cycloneye
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L
GFDL takes it up to 40 kts when it passes to the east of OuterBanks.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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- HURAKAN
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W INTO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
29N75W AND CONTINUING TO 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
NE GULF...FLORIDA AND THE FAR WRN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THE SURFACE LOW
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W INTO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
29N75W AND CONTINUING TO 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
NE GULF...FLORIDA AND THE FAR WRN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THE SURFACE LOW
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.
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- wxman57
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- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Recon : INVEST 91L
cycloneye wrote:First mission will depart at 1:30 PM EDT on Tuesday.... snip...
You meant Wednesday, right? There's no recon scheduled for today, is there?
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