GFS/NAM Develop a Closed Low in the GOM End of This Week

[gatorcane]

I don't expect any tropical development out of this low. In fact, the AFDs suggest convective feedback problems with the latest GFS runs, however, are not totally discounting the possibility of a closed surface feature tracking in from the GOM and passing through FL in a few days bringing even more rainfall to the peninsula.

Discussions snippets:

NWS Miami:

THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH THIS STRONG SOUTHEAST U.S.
TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN UP SURFACE FEATURES. ONE SUCH
FEATURE IS THAT SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES HAVE BEEN ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SOME OF OUR CONVECTION.
IT SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE ECMWF INDICATE THIS WAVE. SO FOR THE TIME
BEING, WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED POPS ON FRIDAY
UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE
AN INFLUENCE. ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN, IF THE GFS IS SEEING
SOMETHING THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT, IT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SURE

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

NWS Tampa:

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CONV FEEDBACK PROBLEMS BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
OVER WESTERN FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND LOAD GFS FOR WED AND THU THEN POPULATING
WINDS WITH NAM ON FRIDAY. NAM WINDS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH THE
RIDGE POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHERN FL ON FRIDAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/getprodvers ... at=pretty;

NWS Melbourne:

THU-SAT...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK APPARENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPS SURFACE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CLEARING CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT NIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

00Z GFS 60 Hours:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even the GFS low is pretty unspectacular.

[meteorologyman]

From GFS model it forecasted the storm to develop over sout texas then enter into the Gulf, then it becomes a closed low and makes lanfall at Florida if I am not mistaken on this infrared satellite. the storm over texas now is the one that "bears" watching.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[meteorologyman]

Wind Shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Lower Level Convergence 1200 UTC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Upper Level Convergence 1200 UTC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[srainhoutx]

Another frontal boundry trough issue for late May. Would appear more rain for FL and parts of the SE.

[tailgater]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
[img]http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=hgx&loop=yes[/img

I wouldn't won't be out there in that!

[gatorcane]

From GFS model it forecasted the storm to develop over sout texas then enter into the Gulf, then it becomes a closed low and makes lanfall at Florida if I am not mistaken on this infrared satellite. the storm over texas now is the one that "bears" watching.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

That is exactly right.

Look at the convection blowing up over SE Texas now (it blew up rather quickly this morning, was basically not there a few hours ago). Watch for that to push offshore SE into the GOM and traverse east over the Central GOM. Then the GFS thinks it closes off.

It's a bit far-fetched but who knows we'll see. I'd say that rain chances for Fri.-Sat. for peninsula Florida will be above climo.



We should note the 12Z GFS just in does not develop a closed feature but instead pushes a concentrated area of convection more south now, through the FL straits and northern Cuba..

[meteorologyman]

Switching subjects here a little whats is up with the storm in the EPAC and what is the status and heading of it. from image

[Ed Mahmoud]

Switching subjects here a little whats is up with the storm in the EPAC and what is the status and heading of it. from image

Seemed thread worthy...


Models not super-enthusiastic, but do close off week surface low pressure in the East Pac next 5 to 7 days from vorticity starting in this general area.

[hurricanetrack]

That is a heck of a complex of t-storms. Corpus is being rocked at the moment. Offshore, I bet the oil rigs are in the thick of it. Amazing weather these last few weeks.

[floridasun78]

we need to see if that what gfs forecast or area of storm that form doing heating of day after move over water it disapear

[gatorcane]

[floridasun78]

here what miami weather office say about gfs this afternoon FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS THE LATEST 12Z RUN
(ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS) HAVE BEEN SUFFERING FROM A SEVERE CASE
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND SO IS UNRELIABLE. ECWMF LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE...AND HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. THIS MODEL SHOWS A
POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR SATURDAY. IF THE ECWMF VERIFIES...THESE POPS ARE STILL
WAY TOO LOW. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES FOR THIS WEEKEND...DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WE CAN REFINE THIS DOWN THE ROAD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[meteorologyman]

Switching subjects here a little whats is up with the storm in the EPAC and what is the status and heading of it. from image

Seemed thread worthy...


Models not super-enthusiastic, but do close off week surface low pressure in the East Pac next 5 to 7 days from vorticity starting in this general area.

Thank you Ed Mahmoud I had trouble finding Pacific weather satellites so I did not make a new thread since I had no data to give or to support

[Jagno]

We will be leaving SW Louisiana(at the Texas border) Saturday morning early and traveling the coast to Orlando, Florida with a large camper, a Wells Cargo trailer, 2 trucks, a Harley and another car to move my son there for college. I pray this weather clears out before we get there. It's a 14 + hour drive and this is NOT what I wanted to face. Thanks for keeping us updated. The information is always appreciated.

[AdamFirst]

Bring on the rain.

More! More! More!

[tailgater]

fast moving complex, nothing at the suface as for as low developing but none the less impressive.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look powerful. Lets see how long it lasts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thirty to fifty knots of wind pushing it along seems to have given it a very sharp back edge to the convection.

[HURAKAN]