Breaking News: El Nino

[Frank2]

Don't punch me in the stomach, but some experts believe that another El Nino will make itself felt by August:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 8538.story

I'm not surprised - the weather of the past few weeks (a lack of severe weather in the plains and a very wet southeast, including Florida) does seem to be the type of pattern seen during an El Nino, so perhaps it's already begun to develop...

Again, don't punch me in the stomach - though to tell you the truth, if it does appear this summer it's a good thing, since the early indications seem to point towards a busy hurricane season - if an El Nino does not develop...

Frank

[RL3AO]

This isn't new news. An el nino has looked possible/probable for months now.

[Frank2]

It's the first time it's been publicly mentioned here in South Florida, so, apparently it's been news only for those who follow it on weather sites like this...

Granted, like most people here I've been away from this board since last season, but, not one of my old contacts at NOAA have mentioned it, either, so it was probably something considered a possibility but wasn't considered a sure thing - again, the unusual May weather pattern (3 weeks for Vortex2 and not even a funnel cloud) seems to point towards an El Nino event...

Frank2

[gatorcane]

It's the first time it's been publicly mentioned here in South Florida, so, apparently it's been news only for those who follow it on weather sites like this...

Granted, like most people here I've been away from this board since last season, but, not one of my old contacts at NOAA have mentioned it, either, so it was probably something considered a possibility but wasn't considered a sure thing - again, the unusual May weather pattern (3 weeks for Vortex2 and not even a funnel cloud) seems to point towards an El Nino event...

Frank2

This is not breaking news for this board, we have known about it for a couple of months now. Your NOAA contacts are free to join this board also

Don't forget 2004 was an El nino year. That year Charley, Frances, and Jeanne made landfall in Florida, with all three impacting Southern FL although none with directs hits in SE Florida. 1992 was an el nino year also with Andrew making landfall in Homestead.

In my opinion El nino means very little to landfall forecasts. All it takes is one hit from a significant system. So I don't follow el nino/la nina much at all.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Franks Back!!!

Thanks for the great news Frank...

Not sure what El Nino was better...04's 4 strikes on FL or 06's 2 Cat 5 landfalls? Maybe 92's and Andrews tops the list...

[Canelaw99]

It's the first time it's been publicly mentioned here in South Florida, so, apparently it's been news only for those who follow it on weather sites like this...

Granted, like most people here I've been away from this board since last season, but, not one of my old contacts at NOAA have mentioned it, either, so it was probably something considered a possibility but wasn't considered a sure thing - again, the unusual May weather pattern (3 weeks for Vortex2 and not even a funnel cloud) seems to point towards an El Nino event...

Frank2

This is not breaking news for this board, we have known about it for a couple of months now. Your NOAA contacts are free to join this board also

Don't forget 2004 was an El nino year. That year Charley, Frances, and Jeanne made landfall in Florida, with all three impacting Southern FL although none with directs hits in SE Florida. 1992 was an el nino year also with Andrew making landfall in Homestead.

In my opinion El nino means very little to landfall forecasts. All it takes is one hit from a significant system. So I don't follow el nino/la nina much at all.

Gator - it really wasn't necessary to bring all those back up. We can just happily go on our merry ways with no storms down here, thank you

[gatorcane]

Amen to that I agree Canelaw99, hopefully a quiet year for us here. I'd like to keep the shutters in the garage collecting dust...fine with me. I've only been in my current house for less than a year and don't even know which shutter goes to which window so I don't even want to go there, it would be a huge project.

[Macrocane]

Franks Back!!!

Thanks for the great news Frank...

Not sure what El Nino was better...04's 4 strikes on FL or 06's 2 Cat 5 landfalls? Maybe 92's and Andrews tops the list...

The two cat 5 (Dean and Felix) landfalls were during 2007 hurricane season, it was a La Niña year. I think 2004 season was a rare occurance and I don't expect it to happen again, but it would be great if it does, great to track the storms but not great for the affected people. Another Andrew is more likely if an El Nino develops.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Franks Back!!!

Thanks for the great news Frank...

Not sure what El Nino was better...04's 4 strikes on FL or 06's 2 Cat 5 landfalls? Maybe 92's and Andrews tops the list...

The two cat 5 (Dean and Felix) landfalls were during 2007 hurricane season, it was a La Niña year. I think 2004 season was a rare occurance and I don't expect it to happen again, but it would be great if it does, great to track the storms but not great for the affected people. Another Andrew is more likely if an El Nino develops.

Well 06's went into 07 as well but I meant 07...Point being It means nothing for #'s or landfall's Just an overall historical average of there being less of them...

[cycloneye]

Hi Frank and welcome back to the board.As you are rejoining us since the end of last season,you may want to follow what is going on with the ENSO factor such as the ENSO models,ssts,anomalies and much more in the Pacific at the mother thread of ENSO updates.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0

[somethingfunny]

El Nino traditionally brings us VERY hot summers here in Texas...so far everything's been a bit below average. But if this pans out I might temporarily relocate to Colorado during August.

[vbhoutex]

El Nino traditionally brings us VERY hot summers here in Texas...so far everything's been a bit below average. But if this pans out I might temporarily relocate to Colorado during August.

I wish we could say the same in SE TX. We have had above average temps for most of May. I've seen it worse, but if the amount of heat we have had this month is an indicator of the coming summer, I don't like it!! We've had enough canes for a lifetime(it only takes one!) and unfortunately it seems that more often than not extreme heat is usually broken by a tropical system. I can do without either. And yes I would like a good smoked Gouda with my "whine".

[Frank2]

Hello to everyone, and thanks...

We'll see what happens, though you all must admit that the May weather pattern (as noted on TWC many times in the past couple of weeks) has been unusual - not only the complete absence of tornado activity in the plains, but the August weather pattern here in Florida and in the southwest and even the northwest, not to mention the unsually cool (cold) snaps in the northeast, so, something's happening to set things off balance - the poor Earth is not feeling well, I'm afraid...

Per the comments here by those who live in South Florida, while we enjoy looking at all types of weather, we are also rooting for another quiet season...

We'll see what happens...

Frank

P.S. It'll be interesting to see if the NHC mentions the possibility of an El Nino in it's first TWO two days from now - my guess is that they probably won't...

[MGC]

El Nino by the heart of the hurricane season is what I've been thinking for a few weeks now. That is why I only forecast 9 named systems this season. We shall see, but remember Andrew occured durning an El Nino.....MGC

[Rainband]

that would make sense. Wet times ahead for the Gulf coast then

[Stormcenter]

All I can say is "EXCELLENT" news.