Watching For the Monsoon

#121 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 8:50 pm

of the storm that hit FHU with 85 mph winds and heavy rain earlier today as it was approaching the north side of Sierra Vista. Blowing dust can be seen in the city. I did a core punch on the storm behind the downburst that hit Libby AAF and videotaped backside structure in Whetstone. Road work (repaving) prevented me from core punching the storm west of Whetstone as the westbound lane was closed at the time and with the storm moving west at 30+mph it got too far away by the time they reopened the lane. I observed no hail, but 3/4 inch hail was reported west of Whetstone.

Steve

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#122 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 8:58 pm

That's a pretty mean looking storm cloud! Great picture!

weatherlover427 · #123 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 9:18 pm

What is the brown cylindrical cloud that I have circled in red?

#124 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 9:25 pm

a gustnado-it's in the right place for one. There's no connection to the cloud so that rules out a landspout-I'll have to review the video before I can tell if it's anything other than a gustnado. I see from the SPC reports that Los Angeles had 3/4 inch had and that Lancaster got beaned with 65mph winds from your T-boomers today-that hail is really unusual for L.A. with a summer storm moving from the east.

Steve

weatherlover427 · #125 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 9:53 pm

Yep we got it - they went into rough wx mode to track that one storm on the 6 PM news. :lol:

I heard of 65 MPH+ winds and flooding in the Lancaster and Palmdale areas. :o

M2 · #126 Postby M2 » Tue Jul 29, 2003 10:06 pm

******FIRST MONSOON TORRENTIAL RAINSTORM OF THE 2003 MONSOON***

IN PROGRESS: Heavy RAIN Finally

Winds SE45+ Peasize Hail
The windows are howeling....lights going on & off (thank God for the
surge protector from last summer heheheh...) What is ALL THIS WET STUFF?
:o :o :o :o :o

************BROKE THE 104 DAYS OF NO RAIN***********

Check out the radar and see what just hit us
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.kiwa.shtml
They're going to have to revise the wind reports - closer to 60+ mph

yahoooooo :Fade-color :Fade-color :Fade-color :Fade-color

weatherlover427 · #127 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 10:18 pm

That sure looks nasty on radar! :o FINALLY you are getting wet!

M2 · #128 Postby M2 » Tue Jul 29, 2003 10:32 pm

Yep, and she's NASTY too :wink:

I thought the one of the windows in the living room was going to blow out.

weatherlover427 · #129 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 10:43 pm

Gusts showing 56 MPH at Sky Harbor as of 11 minutes ago, sounds pretty strong.

#130 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 11:31 pm

That is one big honking complex system!!! If you take the radar out to long range you can see the system Aslkahuna posted about off to it's SW. Looks like the only one in the AZ contingent that didn't get slapped tonight is Dennis. I guess CONGRATULATIONS are in order M2!!!

#131 Postby **azskyman** » Tue Jul 29, 2003 11:36 pm

Hey...we had some fun up north too M2...winds to 45 mph and some gusty rains too. Probably a half inch so far. Temp at 71 is the coolest for this time of night in weeks and weeks. Feels great.

The broad area of moisture might just help feed the chance for storms again tomorrow as humidity jumps up!

Feels good to finally get the real thing. Last rain of any significance was April 15th!

Arizwx · #132 Postby **Arizwx** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 12:14 am

Arizwx wrote:More Sev Trtrms incoming..propogating from Nogales to Sierra Vista and another line from SE TUS to Vail.
One rogue 'Lobo' pulser is fixed on Oro Valley as well..however below sev limits at this time...my concern is a larger line ENE of Oro Valley or SW of Safford incoming within the next hour or so..looks like a potential flooder for many areas of E and E/C Pima as well as Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties.
Vortmax in N Sonora is raising hell.
Temp 90F/dp 58F/winds L/V/Thunder Lght RA ...ooops..now have HVY RA+
****Severe Thunderstorm Warning***** just issued for Oro Valley..
LOL!I spoke too 'SOON'.***Flash Flood Warning now in effect for Tucson Metro including Oro Valley*** :o

!!!!Poss TVS!!!
@16:29hrs MST..observed from Oro Valley ...Rotating Wall Cloud apporx 20nm ESE of OV or approx 10nm ENE of Dwtwn TUS...observed one,possibly two funnels..no confirmation from Spotter Network..will report.
88-D indicates a backbuilding Sev Storm..near E TUS
Appears Rear Flanker type of Sig with moderate rotation.
Movement WNW @15

16:41
Multiple reports of poss Funnels from residents of E Tus.
I have counted 3 at this time.
One appeared Rain Wrapped on the convergence of 2 Trstrms..now moving NNW 17..incoming to Oro Valley area with mult CG..expecting HVY RA+ LTG and strong winds to 60+.
Will update.

16:49
Unreal view of RA++ over Casas Adobes W of me to I-10 Marana.
#4 Funnel spotted at 16:48 with strong rotation ...incoming from TUS/catalina Foothills from Sabino Cyn.
Movement NNW 15.Incoming looks ripe.
88-D showing some rotation now in NW TUS CWA

17:02
Low level shear now intruding..cloud deck has split.Very Unstable.
Current has TIA with Hail
TUS had 54mph wind
Uof A obs had 64+mph
Current instabilty is wreaking havoc with atmos...it's getting worked over badly.TV off the air momentarily.
Down to 74F/Dp60/wind 23 G 30/Thunder.

17:22
Ready to get CLOCKED by that Trstrm complex I noted earlier from Safford..now going SEV over the Summerhaven area of the Catalinas and inbound to Oro Valley.
Good Geesus..this is absurd.Ready to put a light jacket on..69F and dropping.Winds now shifting ESE 17 G 24.Brrrrrrrrr.
Some rainfall amounts in TUS metro exceed 2in+..and more incoming here in NW TUS/Oracle as I write.
Man what a SHOW!

17:39
HVY RA+

Torrential Rain...poss 1-2 in per/hr.Vis<.25 mi

18:30
It rains in PHX!LOL!Congrats M2 and AzSkyMan!Chandler Muni G to 64mph
56mph at PHX Sky Harbor and 50+ at Deer Valley!
Well done!
FINALLY!

22:10
KEMX 88-D shows small but potent Trsrm Line inbound to Oro Valley from
Willcox.
Saw on 10pm news reports of several fast water rescues in Metro Tuus
news report shows .20in ra in Oro Valley!LOL!!!!!!!!I got 1.29 in <60min
Total 1.89in storm total with more inbound.
BTW SkyMan..Dennis got clocked earlier as well..as you toggle back to the previous page on this thread..so we all got in on the 'Show'.Just waiting for report from Stan(SeAZSky) and 6pack is complete.
Will update after I open the 'Sunset Grill' for Frozen Daqueris and RibEye Steaks on El Grillo.'Smooth' Santana on the CD...Muy Bien!
8-)

M2 · #133 Postby M2 » Wed Jul 30, 2003 1:18 am

Yesserie AZskyman, we got particularly pounded because it blew in from
the south for a change. Aren't these temps great? Haven't seen 70-degrees
for months. Before the storm blew in it was around 101-104F and then
it hit finally and temps dropped like a stone to 73F currently. It's wonderful.
DAVID you angel, thanks for swingin' those hips our way buddie :ggreen:

We finally saw Precip for the first time since Tax Day - that's 105 bloody dry
days. The whole city is celebrating. The Cherry Vanilla is gone. Thank God.
It was a long wait and hope it continues during this worst drought in AZ history.
Nice pix as usual Steve. So will we all hold the juice or what...

-mas:

Thank you AzCaliWx, it was a long time coming. [By the way, I saw the
"Turkey in a Wash" woman who drove into the flooded dip - there are
those who 'appear' in every big storm. Think their reasoning gets washed away
with the rain.] The whole city of Phx is celebrating tonight. Everyone
interviewed on all the local channels were all smiling and laughing, saying
how much they love this, etc.etc. The only peeps not happy may be those
who were delayed at Sky Harbor. I knew the winds were about 20mph
higher but I didn't loose my picture window - it was howling like a banchee. :12:

[Allright...what is a 'Grinn' Jackalope'...what is that]

Arizwx · #134 Postby **Arizwx** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 1:51 am

Congrats From AzCaliWx!LOL!
Hey...I hear they actually closed the roof at 'BOB'!
Way to party..and a cold Corona is hoisted toward our sister city to the NW!
Have a ball!
Later...I have to take care of the 'Grinn' Jacklope'..dustin' day ya know!
Ribeyes are ready...take care.
~El Don de Monsoon~

azsnowman · #135 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 7:24 am

How KEWL! So glad to see this.......I was watching the complex on NOAA, News Channel 3, very impressive indeed! We had our downpour around 1100 hrs yesterday morning, .93" in 13 minutes, lotsa CC, CG last evening just to my south, no rain though.........hang on to your hats again today, samething, same channel.......stay tuned!

Dennis

azsnowman · #136 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 7:33 am

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED JUL 30 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE COMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE...AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE PHOENIX METRO AREA LAST EVENING...IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON WE HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHCS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES
FOR THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED
AND REDUCED THE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS. ATMOS
WILL BE WORKED OVER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES SO THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON STORMS WILL HAVE MORE
DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. 500 MB HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
BACK TOWARD NEW MEXICO TODAY SO THAT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE RIM AND WHITES WILL
MOVE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS. INSTABILITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING STORMS TO FIRE LATER IN THE MORNING.
BY THURSDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEP LAYER
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CONTINUING. A TROUGH ACCORDING THE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO ARIZONA. FOR NOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE STAYING OVER
ARIZONA. WE WILL NOT REMOVE CHCS OF PRECIP FROM THE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME.
TC

.FGZ...NONE.

#137 Postby **azskyman** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 7:35 am

Precip totalled .45" at my location and was very welcome. Gusty winds, but not damaging. An outflow boundary from a storm to the north converged with moisture and storminess near Oro Valley and elsewhere to stir things up and give us an interesting night for the first time in a while. Hopefully...another dose or two in the next week.

#138 Postby **Stephanie** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:04 am

Great catch Josh - you can barely make out the gustnado!

CONGRATS M2!!! I'm glad everyone is doing well.

So far this monsoon seems like a winner for once huh?

weatherlover427 · #139 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 8:27 pm

yeah, and even we in southern Cali are getting in on it for once; in places that normally do not get wet!

#140 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:00 pm

Yep according to the GFS, Maybe-depends upon where you are according to the ECMWF. Both deepen the trough off the West coast as it absorbs the ULL off Baja and shift the upper High to the east as the trough rides
over it. The GFS is stronger and sets up dry SW flow over all of AZ which the EC keeps SE AZ in monsoon flow. From a chasing standpoint, the latter would be preferable as the interface between the dry SW flow and the monsoon flow would be a focal point for strong thunderstorms. The GFS has the break lasting about 3 days or so with the monsoon flow returning (another chance for severe weather) before starting an even stronger break around the 12th or so.

Steve

Watching For the Monsoon

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