Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I have been monitoring the GFS for the last 4 days with the east pac system either developing and making the trip across central America or just the energy from it.. then developing into a system in the Caribbean and gulf .. for 3 days it has consistently been doing this .. remember last few years when the gfs does this .. typically it gets it right at least in terms of something being there... so yeah would watch for it.. and yes its far out but again gfs is know for that sometimes..

It happened last year.

yes and the year before that .. many times..

[KWT]

Yep it has happened before thats the main reason to watch it, though last year was helped by the fact that Alma formed pretty much next to the Mexico coastline...

Still no support from the other models that I can see but GFS can lead the way on these things sometimes.

[gatorcane]

The last several runs of the GFS have lost this system. In addition no model is showing significant tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic Basin through the next 14 days.

I do expect a quiet period for at least the next couple of weeks based on model consensus. The EPAC will be the place to watch for development during this period.

[cycloneye]

It looks like when the season starts officially on June 1 it will be quiet.Lets see in the EPac side if things get going soon as that basin is in a slow start.

[xironman]

Has anyone mentioned the little system that pops of the Bahamas and goes to NC the next couple of days?

CMC


NOGAP


GFS


What happened to he UKMET at FSU?

[Dean4Storms]

I agree xIronman, that area near the northern Bahamas needs to be monitored, most models close off a low and move it NNE to NE, the question would be can it go tropical?

[cycloneye]

GFS once again is showing after 288 hours something in the SW Caribbean.But we know the drill when long range runs are concerned.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

GFS has plenty of activity in the EPAC for the next 2 weeks.See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has plenty of activity in the EPAC for the next 2 weeks.See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

El Niño

[cycloneye]

GFS has plenty of activity in the EPAC for the next 2 weeks.See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

El Niño

Not quite El Nino yet,but the wet MJO pulse that will be favorable in the EPAC by the second week of June and by the way,it may cause some Western Caribbean activity by that period of time.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has a pretty strong system in the Eastern Pacific by next week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9053100!!/

[KWT]

Yep one of those convective bursts in the EPAC is eventually going to hold and develop into a tropical system, just a matter of time really.

[ronjon]

Yes I know it's the GFS at 372 hrs so take it for what its worth but the model has off and on shown development in the western caribbean the last week or so of model runs. On the 12Z run, it develops the low pressure in the SW caribbean at 240 hrs. This happens to coincide with the wet MJO pulse so looks like conditions may become favorable to develop sometime between June 10th and the 15th.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yes I know it's the GFS at 372 hrs so take it for what its worth but the model has off and on shown development in the western caribbean the last week or so of model runs. On the 12Z run, it develops the low pressure in the SW caribbean at 240 hrs. This happens to coincide with the wet MJO pulse so looks like conditions may become favorable to develop sometime between June 10th and the 15th.

Joe Bastardi has been on a possible Western GOMEX system for weeks, based on upward motion pattern.


Of course, a Western Caribbean system is as likely to affect the Eastern Gulf, or Central America, so I'm interested, but not fixated.

[cycloneye]

GFS is not alone! The EURO has something in the Caribbean,although not as strong as GFS.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[ronjon]

06Z GFS at it again with western caribbean system. Develops it about 10 days out.

[ronjon]

I see the GFS now has support from the 00Z Euro for western caribbean development in 9 or 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009060100!!/

[Meso]

GFS continuing with this development. And has it becoming a fairly aggressive system now. Interesting that the EURO supports the idea of the low developing in the Caribbean

[boca]

The GFS is agressive with this system and to a lesser extend the Euro.When the system shows up in the meduim range I'll pay more attention to it.The GFS has a pattern of developing these systems in the long range say 240hrs,then you check back the next day and the following day its still 240 hrs out. I think the GFS is sniffing out the MJO pulse that will be swinging into the Caribbean by next week.Lets see if the models have this low in the meduim range in a couple of days. I'm a bit surprised how strong the GFS makes the low 996 milibars on the 06z run.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is agressive with this system and to a lesser extend the Euro.When the system shows up in the meduim range I'll pay more attention to it.The GFS has a pattern of developing these systems in the long range say 240hrs,then you check back the next day and the following day its still 240 hrs out. I think the GFS is sniffing out the MJO pulse that will be swinging into the Caribbean by next week.Lets see if the models have this low in the meduim range in a couple of days. I'm a bit surprised how strong the GFS makes the low 996 milibars on the 06z run.

There's a very slim possibility (I'd give it a less than 1% chance) the GFS is going to be correct on this for those reasons you describe above. In fact nearly every run of the GFS for the past month has shown a system in the SW Carib in the long-range.

Now could it be sniffing out some kind of upper-level low and increased moisture for the Western Caribbean? Maybe even some kind of extended trough? Sure I can buy that but the 384 GFS forecast is like shooting in the dark, not happening. There is not point in even looking at it for tropical cyclogenesis.