EPAC : INVEST 90E

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 31, 2009 6:40 pm

490
ABPZ20 KNHC 312338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 31, 2009 6:42 pm

857
WHXX01 KMIA 311834
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC SUN MAY 31 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090531 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090531 1800 090601 0600 090601 1800 090602 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 98.3W 9.9N 100.4W 10.5N 102.7W 11.0N 104.9W
BAMD 9.5N 98.3W 9.8N 99.5W 10.0N 100.7W 10.0N 102.0W
BAMM 9.5N 98.3W 9.8N 99.9W 10.0N 101.6W 10.2N 103.3W
LBAR 9.5N 98.3W 10.1N 99.5W 11.0N 101.3W 12.4N 103.5W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 21KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 21KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090602 1800 090603 1800 090604 1800 090605 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 106.9W 11.9N 111.1W 12.8N 114.7W 13.8N 118.4W
BAMD 9.9N 103.5W 10.2N 107.2W 11.2N 111.1W 13.3N 115.4W
BAMM 10.4N 105.2W 10.9N 109.0W 11.8N 112.8W 13.7N 117.0W
LBAR 13.7N 105.7W 17.7N 109.3W 21.9N 110.1W 25.6N 108.2W
SHIP 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS 27KTS
DSHP 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 97.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 96.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#24 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 31, 2009 6:43 pm

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 31, 2009 8:38 pm

EP, 90, 2009060100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 988W, 20, 1008, DB

Winds decreased from 25 to 20 knots.

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun May 31, 2009 8:47 pm

This thing is dead.I think is a teaser for stronger systems later on.

Cyclone1 · #27 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sun May 31, 2009 8:48 pm

Wow, it almost had me convinced

#28 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 31, 2009 8:56 pm

The 00z model runs are late, which makes me wonder if they are thinking on pulling the plug.

#29 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun May 31, 2009 9:00 pm

It has some sort of surface low and is in very low shear. I wouldn't call it dead yet.

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 31, 2009 9:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:It has some sort of surface low and is in very low shear. I wouldn't call it dead yet.

I agree. Conditions appear favorable and it has a nice circulation. We already saw this year that in the tropics, never say never, especially this time of the year in the EPAC.

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:43 am

524
ABPZ20 KNHC 010539
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/COHEN

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:17 am

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:45 am

193
ABPZ20 KNHC 011134
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

RIP!

#34 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 9:15 am

Looks like they are about to pull the plug.

#35 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:51 am

626
ABPZ30 KNHC 011631
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING MAY IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS ONCE EVERY OTHER
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 THAT NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 1:48 pm

Adios!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep902009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906011811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Cyclone1 · #37 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 2:30 pm

Next!

Wow, no May storm. It's been a while since that happened.

EPAC : INVEST 90E

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

Re:

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

Who is online