CPHC increases watch/warning lead time by 12 hours for 2009

[Chacor]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/examp ... hanges.pdf

Changes for the 2009 Central Pacific Hurricane Season
For the 2009 hurricane season in the central north Pacific basin, there will be several changes to the suite of products and services provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, HI. A summary of these changes follows.

Lead time of Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
In order to provide the public and emergency officials with more advance notice, CPHC will increase the typical lead time for Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches from within 36 to within 48 hours, and the typical lead time for Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warnings from within 24 to within 36 hours.


HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM WATCH: Hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible within the Watch area within 48 hours. During a Watch, prepare your home and business and review your plan for possible evacuation in case a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning is issued.

HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM WARNING: Hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected within the Warning area within 36 hours. Complete storm preparations and leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.


Beginning with the 2009 hurricane season, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will be typically issued within 48 and 36 hours, respectively, prior to the anticipated first occurrence of sustained winds of tropical storm force, conditions which make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Under certain circumstances, however, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings can be issued with much less lead time. It is imperative to be prepared throughout the year by having a well-stocked emergency supply kit, evacuation plan, family plan (including pets), and if applicable, a plan to protect your business. Do not wait until a Watch or Warning is issued to create your emergency supply kit and develop your plans.

The official notice is located online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification ... arning.txt

Would such a change work in the Atlantic compared to the Central Pacific, I wonder.

[wxman57]

Would such a change work in the Atlantic compared to the Central Pacific, I wonder.

Actually, the NHC has been putting out hurricane watches a good 48 hours prior to landfall and warnings at least 36 hours before for the past 3-4 years. A hurricane watch was issued for the Texas coast for Ike at 4PM CDT Wednesday, Sept. 10th. That's close to 60 hours before the arrival of hurricane force winds. The hurricane warning was issued at 10AM Thursday, Sept. 11th, about 40 hours prior to the arrival of hurricane force winds.

But they haven't made it the official policy yet. According to the NHC, their still experimenting with the idea and they don't want to make it the formal policy yet. Kind of like they're "experimenting" with the idea of removing the mention of storm surge in the Saffir-Simpson scale this year. The government moves very, very slowly.

[Derek Ortt]

I think they did make the change official for this season. I heard about the similar lead time changes for the Atl (except for France, which I believe still uses their own lead time)

[wxman57]

I think they did make the change official for this season. I heard about the similar lead time changes for the Atl (except for France, which I believe still uses their own lead time)

I don't know, Derek. I believe I heard Bill Read say that they hadn't made the change official yet last week. I don't see what the big issue is, as they've been giving longer lead time watches/warnings for years already.

[JonathanBelles]

I very much like this increase in lead time. I think it can save lives here in the ATL (and in HI as well). Evacuation levels, the amount of people who leave successfully, should increase with these lead time increases.

[wxman57]

I very much like this increase in lead time. I think it can save lives here in the ATL (and in HI as well). Evacuation levels, the amount of people who leave successfully, should increase with these lead time increases.

One problem they're facing is that more lead times means acting when there's greater uncertainty as to likely impact. I'd use the example of Max Mayfield going so far as to call the mayor of New Orleans two days before Katrina hit, pleading with him to begin evacuations. Or go back to Ike and the mayor of Galveston delaying evacuations, hoping Ike would turn away like Rita did. Government officials are going to have to call for evacuations without the fear of retribution when a hurricane threatens but turns away.

[JonathanBelles]

Yea, I thought about that before making that post. Something has to be done to get rid of that sentiment. One thing I have thought about recently. I know it may be expensive, but what if we sent area government officials and as many residents as possible to hurricane simulators. I know they have one at Epcot, and I know they have a hurricane force wind simulator and a weather exhibit at MOSI in Tampa. That may lift some eyebrows, and may change some of those sentiments. It may also be as simple as having those who wont leave sit down with somebody who went through storms like Charley, Ike, Katrina, or Rita.

[bevgo]

Yeah, after going through Katrina, the lead time really means nothing to me. I will watch and make my own decision about leaving or not based on reasonable projections. If I run and nothing happens--oh well--better than staying for another Katrina like storm in the hope it will do the usual and miss me. It sure cured my daughter of ever refusing to leave again which forced me to remain.

[somethingfunny]

For alot of people the easiest way to encourage evacuation is to emphasize that there will be NO POWER for weeks after the storm, even if your area escapes the worst weather at the center. Evacuate before the storm, then if your area has power go back, or stay in a nice air-conditioned place until everything's back to normal.

[AJC3]

I think they did make the change official for this season. I heard about the similar lead time changes for the Atl (except for France, which I believe still uses their own lead time)

I don't know, Derek. I believe I heard Bill Read say that they hadn't made the change official yet last week. I don't see what the big issue is, as they've been giving longer lead time watches/warnings for years already.

Indeed the newest official NWS directives have left the status quo in the Atlantic basin.

My understanding is that the extension of watch lead times was originally on the table to be done in the Atlantic beginning this season, however many EMO directors asked that it not be implemented until next year at the earliest. Apparently many of the EMOs have to consider revamping their EAPs, budgets, staffing considerations, etc before they could agree to NHC implementing the change.

[jinftl]

I would think the prospect of drowning would be a motivator too. If you are told...not encourged...to evacuate for surge, it is for good reason. Most people are told go go inland enough to get away from surge. If you are in a protected structure that is storm-ready, most people will then be safe in most (there are exceptions of course) storms.

For alot of people the easiest way to encourage evacuation is to emphasize that there will be NO POWER for weeks after the storm, even if your area escapes the worst weather at the center. Evacuate before the storm, then if your area has power go back, or stay in a nice air-conditioned place until everything's back to normal.