NE of Azores Islands : INVEST 92L

[Category 5]

I still don't understand why it hasn't been named. It has a close circulation, the convection is weak but I have seen other tropical systems with the same appearence due to high latitudes, it's not cold core and it is producing winds higher than 35 kt. For me is at least subtropical, maybe we will have to wait until post analysis.

this is ANA with an eye in my opinion



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

If I had to guess thats not a "true eye"

[Derek Ortt]

if I were making the call, this would be a Tropical Storm

This is a classic TC underneath a UL, which is a very favorable location for development as we have little shear and very cold UL temps. Almost impossible to get a major out of this, but we can see development up to cat 1 in this environment (see Vince, Olga, Michael and a few others)

[Category 5]

I spy a 50kt barb near the center

[hurricanefloyd5]

call the NHC and ask why they are not naming this system LOL

[Category 5]

I would be curious as to why. The quikscat shows a fully tropical system. It has persisted and has TS winds.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the flip side, it will be soooo weird to name a system over 44ºN!!!

That's unheard of. That's why the tropics are so fun!!!

[cycloneye]

[Category 5]

Looking at the flip side, it will be soooo weird to name a system over 44ºN!!!

That's unheard of. That's why the tropics are so fun!!!

Something likes this in June is quite ridiculous.

[HURAKAN]

Light is coming down.

[MGC]

Very impressive system considering how far north it is. Almost looks tropical with convection so close to the center. I don't agree with naming subtropical systems though but that is the NHC call.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Could this be the second unnamed storm already? (The Gulf low is also debatable on whether that was a tropical storm)

I'd guess at least 50 kt, maybe 55 kt, and I'd say it is a tropical storm.

[DanieleItalyRm]

I have noticed that the nhc tends to classify systems as tropical sistem very easily.. Apparently it is less willing in giving the same classification to east atlantic systems..
If the current system had occured over the USA coast it would have been classified as tropical storm already.
Today the tropical caracteristics and tropical storm intensity are already there.
I am sure that they are waiting for it dissipation so they wont need to give it a name.

example of cold core derived:

Grace:An extratropical low formed just north of Hispaniola on October 15, and the next day gained enough tropical characteristics to be classified as a tropical storm.

Ivan was an unusual storm, forming from an extratropical system that had been tracked off the coast of Portugal since late September. The extratropical storm moved erratically southwest past the Azores, slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. On October 4, the system became a named tropical storm.

A large extratropical low formed off the southeastern coast of the United States on November 21. The low moved away from the coast, and a convective cloud mass began forming near the low's center. By November 25, the cloud mass showed distinct signs of being a tropical system, and when its intensity was estimated at hurricane strength

A cold-core upper level low induced the formation of a surface low over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean in early October. It developed enough organized convection to be classified a subtropical depression on October 15, and became a subtropical storm the next day. A warm core developed, and it was re-classified as Tropical Storm Michael

[somethingfunny]

I prefer this newer policy, where a TC needs to fit a stricter definition and show consistency and potential to continue strengthening before it's named (this is what they used to do in the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s)... ... However it's opening a can of worms regarding the legitimacy and consitency of recordkeeping in the basin.

It seems apparent to me that there's been some sort of political shift at the NHC regarding how easily they'll name a system. If we were following the same standards that were followed during the year of Bret, Gert, Lee, Vince, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta, this would likely have been named Claudette by now.

At this point, I don't think it'll be Ana either. No land areas threatened, and shipping interests wouldn't know the difference between a 50kt tropical storm and a 50kt cold-core storm....they just know to avoid it.

[tolakram]

Either you follow a scientific rule and name systems that qualify or you just make stuff up and lose credibility. In my opinion of course.

So what defines a tropical system and how many definitions are needed to call it tropical?

SST in a certain range?
Warm Core?
Winds at the surface above a certain speed?
Anything else?

If the rule says all must be met then this is not a tropical system, otherwise it is.

[brunota2003]

I spy a 50kt barb near the center

That barb is black too, suggesting rain contamination.

[DanieleItalyRm]

That barb is black too, suggesting rain contamination.

enlarge the last quickscat image..this is 40-50 knots winds..

[cycloneye]

[Category 5]

If I may paraphrase the NHC a bit.

If it looks like a tropical storm, it probably is, despite its environment and unusual location.

[cycloneye]

Here is a microwave at 1:37 PM EDT or 17:37 UTC.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Here is a microwave at 1:37 PM EDT or 17:37 UTC.

oh brother a hurricane with no name LOL jUST KIDDING