DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
BLOCKY/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PRIMARY
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48.
NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND NO 30%
DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED.
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HAVE FINALLY RETURNED INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES BY DAY 4/SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW EMANATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AROUND DAY 4/SUNDAY...AND/OR A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST DAYS 5-6
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR TSTMS WITH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BARRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WITH THE REMNANT GULF LOW ACROSS
THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...NOTHING MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED OR PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH THE PREVALENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
..GUYER.. 05/21/2009
Looks like I picked a bad week to take up tornado chasing...
I loved those commercials!
