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Meso
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#141 Postby Meso » Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:42 am

Well, to be fair the GFS already has a system developing around 200 hours which is almost half of that of the 384 hour. I'd give it around 15% of something developing in the caribbean in a weeks time. Everything says it should be possible. It's the right time of year, just the strength may be a bit much though it can also happen. Since the EURO also shows the same low developing it's hardly just sniffing out something that isn't there.

NOTE : The CMC is also showing this development

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#142 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:47 am

:uarrow: Meso I agree 100% with you. I'd say about a 15% chance of this happening (now that we have a couple of models on board albeit still out beyond 144 hours so I am skeptical still) but my point is that the strength is likely going to be nowhere near what the GFS is showing at 384 hours, should this develop.

But indeed the WCAR is the area to look this time of year. If anything is going to develop that is where it is likely going to develop. I'll be watching.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#143 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2009 5:59 pm

If you look at this GFS loop,you can see that it starts to bubble something in the Western Caribbean after 168 hours.But it also shows a stronger EPAC development than in the Caribbean.Give me something starting in 144 hours and plenty of model support and then I will be a believer.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#144 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2009 9:33 am

Hey peeps,something in the GOM in 60 hours if the 12z NAM is right.

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#145 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:17 am

that is the low I have been tracking since last week, GFS saw it first if it verifies.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#146 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:04 pm

GFS at 228 hours continues to show something in the Caribbean.Just reach 144 hours to start believing. :)

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#147 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2009 2:19 pm

The 12z EURO at 216 hours also has Caribbean system.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9060212!!/
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#148 Postby ronjon » Tue Jun 02, 2009 6:44 pm

18Z GFS at it again.

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#149 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:55 am

06Z GFS now developing western caribbean system much sooner at 144 hrs. Seems to be connected to a pool of moisture drawn up from the exiting trough over the SE.

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#150 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2009 2:24 pm

The 12z EURO shows a low in the Caribbean moving out of there NE.And this is inside the 144 hour threshold.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#151 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:49 pm

The first time this year I see a model very bullish in the 120 hour timeframe. And it has other models like the EURO to back this.Lets see if by early next week we see in reallity a system in the Caribbean or is a phantom.

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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#152 Postby Vortex » Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:34 pm

The 18Z GFS and Euro continue to depict lowering pressures over the western/sw carribean during the next 3-5 days. In fact, both models develop the system with the GFS fairly bullish. given the consistency of several runs and in the relative short-term 3-7 days this area merits attention. Tonights 00Z runs should prove interesting to see if the trends continue.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#153 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:04 pm

Maybe the mecanism that may start things is the high amplitud tropical wave now in the Central Atlantic along with a favorable MJO (Madden Julian Occilation) pulse that will kick into the Caribbean by late next week.See graphic below.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 12 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE WITH
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP VERY WELL AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 34W-42W.



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http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#154 Postby tailgater » Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Maybe the mecanism that may start things is the high amplitud tropical wave now in the Central Atlantic along with a favorable MJO (Madden Julian Occilation) pulse that will kick into the Caribbean by late next week.See graphic below.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 12 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE WITH
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP VERY WELL AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 34W-42W.



Image

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

Pretty impressive wave, check out the loop.
Image
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#155 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:04 pm

The 00z NAM at 84 hours is starting to show something in the Caribbean.Lets see what the 00z GFS and EURO have in their runs.

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#156 Postby boca » Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:02 pm

Now this might be believable look at the GFS00z run at 84hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084m.gif
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#157 Postby BigA » Thu Jun 04, 2009 12:46 am

The 0Z Canadian shoots a small system across western Cuba in the general direction of the western Bahamas in the 5-6 day timeframe. Seems rather similar to the recent GFS runs. Model persistance and agreement will be what to look for throughout the next few days.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#158 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:40 am

06z GFS

The strongest run for this from GFS.The 12z run from this and the other models will be important to see consistency from them.

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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#159 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:52 am

IMO this wave will be the trigger for any development that could occur in the Western Caribbean and that is what the models may be catching up.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#160 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:15 am

HPC Discussion of the models

FLORIDA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE LOW IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT VARIOUS TIMES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...BAROCLINICALLY INITIATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA.
THE 06Z GFS...AS USUAL...IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND SHARES NO
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...AND LIES ON THE FAST SIDE OF
THE 06Z GEFS MEMBERS WITH THIS CYCLONE. THIS COULD BE BECAUSE THE
GFS MOVES THE INITIAL UPPER LOW OUT TO THE EAST...BEFORE REFORMING
TROUGHING OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THEREAFTER. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AS A STATIONARY FEATURE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE QUICK TO FORM AND ACCELERATE CONVECTIVE
LOWS...SO THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE DEEMED TOO QUICK. IT IS STRONGLY
POSSIBLE THAT A CONVECTIVE LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND STEER NORTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL CUBA JUST BEYOND THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD...INDICATING WET
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENINSULA THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN ENJOYED BY THE
SUNSHINE STATE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER TWO-THIRDS OF MAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE MERELY INDICATED A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ONLY FORMING A LOW BY NEXT THURSDAY
MORNING...THE FORECAST OF WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED/REFINED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE CALL WITH NHC AT 16Z TODAY.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
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