Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well since this is looking more and more imminent via our favorite model the GFS I'll make a new thread for the "disturbance" it has been seeing in multiple runs.

12Z looks to have quite a system by its standards and its not LONG RANGE anymore...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

Did you notice that the low has been trending back west compared to the 00z and 06 run from this morning.The GFS is going to jump around until something gets initialized down there.

[cycloneye]

I posted this at the models thread,but as there is a new thread for the Caribbean area,I am posting again about what I consider one of the triggers may be this high amplitud wave.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Did you notice that the low has been trending back west compared to the 00z and 06 run from this morning.The GFS is going to jump around until something gets initialized down there.

Yes I have....The East of FL is more typical of Nov than it is June...Most this time of year they head to the FL Panhandle or gulf coast...Will be interesting to see if its a pattern/trend or a flip flop...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This scenario is definitely starting to the grab my attention. The increasing model constancy and the fact that I will be in Florida around the time all of this is expected to happen is definitely peaking my interest. I will be watching the models closely over the next few days.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

This is where supposedly GFS has the area of low pressure forming in 120 hours,just north of Honduras coast.

[Derek Ortt]

one major problem

THE CANADIAN HAS NOTHING! If it does not develop this, it likely is not going to form

[DESTRUCTION5]

one major problem

THE CANADIAN HAS NOTHING! If it does not develop this, it likely is not going to form

You know how the crazy uncle is. Sometimes he shows up to the party, sometimes he don't..

[boca]

I agree the Canadian is the most reliable for tropical development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on the 180 hour GFS with what appears to be a hurricane barely missing Miami, I am eager to see what the new Euro will show in 30 or 40 minutes.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

Compared with GFS this model doesnt have anything strong,but shows something south of Cuba.

[Derek Ortt]

if the Canadian doesnt show something developing, chances are it won't develop. It develops EVERYTHING

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

if the Canadian doesnt show something developing, chances are it won't develop. It develops EVERYTHING

Hes got a point guys.

No really, he does.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

Weak low that moves NNE from Caribbean to Bahamas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[cycloneye]

Miami AFD

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE GFS MODEL STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVING IT NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS BY END OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
LOW DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODEL...AS THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING
THE DEEPENING OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT WEEK PULLING THE LOW
NORTHEAST. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION OF THE LOW DURING NEXT WEEK.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

18z NAM

72 hours=Low NNE of Honduras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

84 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

18z NAM

72 hours=Low NNE of Honduras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

84 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

I could be totally wrong, but aren't (at least some of) the initial, and more importantly, for a regional model, the boundary conditions, for the 18Z NAM supplied from the 12Z GFS?

If that is indeed the case, it wouldn't be a complete surpise that near the edge of the domain the 18Z NAM would be very similar to the 12Z GFS.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS

I will post until 180 hours only in this post to not make multiple ones.

66 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

78 hours=Low just East of Nicaragua.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

96 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

108 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

120 hours=Low down to 1003 mbs but almost at the same place.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

144 hours=System west of Jamaica.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

174 hours=Low moves to Bahamas at 1002 mb.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

180 hours= 1000 mbs in Bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif