Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[NDG]

The only reason I am looking at this area is because besides the gfs the euro consistently has been lowering pressures in the western Caribbean also, it also has been forecasting for windshear to drop in the area for next week. The gfs has been having problems with its consistency of a possible track because it has been inconsistent in its sypnotic set up on its med range forecast, which we all know is not the best. To defend the CMC is absurd just because is not developing an area of low pressure in the Caribbean. If memory serves me correct it also did not forecasted TD # 1 to develop.

[cycloneye]

It looks like mid-level circulation just north of Panamas coast moving NW as ronjon said.Here is another loop of the area from the RAMSDIS pic.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Derek Ortt]

The only reason I am looking at this area is because besides the gfs the euro consistently has been lowering pressures in the western Caribbean also, it also has been forecasting for windshear to drop in the area for next week. The gfs has been having problems with its consistency of a possible track because it has been inconsistent in its sypnotic set up on its med range forecast, which we all know is not the best. To defend the CMC is absurd just because is not developing an area of low pressure in the Caribbean. If memory serves me correct it also did not forecasted TD # 1 to develop.

the CMC is a very useful model, IT YOU USE IT CORRECTLY! You clearly are not extracting valuable information from the model (or you want to see development and are ignoring the evidence given by myself and wxman57)

[NDG]

The only reason I am looking at this area is because besides the gfs the euro consistently has been lowering pressures in the western Caribbean also, it also has been forecasting for windshear to drop in the area for next week. The gfs has been having problems with its consistency of a possible track because it has been inconsistent in its sypnotic set up on its med range forecast, which we all know is not the best. To defend the CMC is absurd just because is not developing an area of low pressure in the Caribbean. If memory serves me correct it also did not forecasted TD # 1 to develop.

the CMC is a very useful model, IT YOU USE IT CORRECTLY! You clearly are not extracting valuable information from the model (or you want to see development and are ignoring the evidence given by myself and wxman57)

We will see.

[cycloneye]

Marine Discussion from TPC

THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER
NORTHERN S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH ELY TRADES
WINDS E OF 80W WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATER
THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT...PSN AND STRENGTH...OF A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NICARAGUAN AND
HONDURAN COASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON THEN WILL DEPICT LOW PRES NEAR 15N84W 1010 MB MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS IN THE 20 RANGE AND MAX SEAS OF 8 FT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[NDG]

I admit that the NAM always wants to speed up development than the actual timing that it takes. Must times I ignore it past its 48hr forecast.

[floridasun78]

i see like weak low moving into sw carribbean that could be what gfs was picking up some weatherman in miami are saying that gfs was crying wolf even nws office here that change next few days if their low sw carribbean ok twc say their low pressure in sw carribbean in tropical outlook at 10:50 am

[Vortex]

The satelite imagery certainly looks interesting this morning north of panama..This will be the area to watch in the coming days especialy as wind shear drops off to the noth and ample moisture gets pulled up from the pacific as well as additional energy arriving from the east over the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

1010 mb low analized by TAFB at 12 UTC north of Panama

[srainhoutx]

Folks, remember that guidance often sniffs out the arrival of the MJO pulse forecast to move into "our part of the world". I suspect that what many are looking at is just a bit of model fantasy. I still think that the EPAC is the area to "focus" our attention in the near term. Just my 0.02 cents worth.

[Sanibel]

Weak rotation north of Panama probably not worth mentioning.

[vacanechaser]

If memory serves me correct it also did not forecasted TD # 1 to develop.

(or you want to see development and are ignoring the evidence given by myself and wxman57)

i think you are right NDG, along with the model, i believe the two of them said no development as well..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

The weak 1010 mb low is left of that 80w blue line.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Weak rotation north of Panama probably not worth mentioning.

I see rotation West of Panama, ie, in the Pacific...

Edit to add- this is not to Sanibel, lets not snipe too much at the pro-mets, without them, this would be the Wunderground forum with a once a day post from a real meteorologist.

[Cainer]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061727
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Code Yellow! NHC not anticipating development any time soon, it seems. We'll see what happens.

[cycloneye]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian remains less than impressed.

[wxman57]

There's pretty much a permanent area of low pressure down there during the hurricane season. What I see there now is a weak tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trof in a high-shear environment. As the NHC stated in their outlook - development is unlikely. But if the shear does let up toward the middle to end of next week and if there's still something down there, then there could be some potential for development. After all, it is a prime region for early-season development.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOIST
SWLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND
IS PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IN
TURN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 82W-86W EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ANOTHER AREA IMPACTED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ON A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N80W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N80W
INTO THE LOW. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY TRADE WINDS AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[ronjon]

12Z GFS and NAM on board for w caribbean development in 3 to 5 days.