June 7 - 13 Severe Weather

[brunota2003]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

MOC079-117-080315-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-090608T0315Z/
LIVINGSTON MO-GRUNDY MO-
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GRUNDY AND NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 951 PM CDT... THE PUBLIC REPORTED TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL IN SPRING
HILL. DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH REMAIN LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY.

PERSONS BETWEEN SPRING HILL AND CHULA SHOULD BE IN SHELTER. THIS
STORM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A
TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.

[Dave]

LIVINGSTON MO-GRUNDY MO-
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GRUNDY AND NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 951 PM CDT... THE PUBLIC REPORTED TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL IN SPRING
HILL. DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH REMAIN LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY.

PERSONS BETWEEN SPRING HILL AND CHULA SHOULD BE IN SHELTER. THIS
STORM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.

[brunota2003]

Tomorrow morning is going to be a complete mess, when pictures of all this start rolling out. Granted it won't be as complete devastation as a tornado would give, is still a grim reminder that tornadoes are not the only hazard.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
957 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 955 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WOODLAWN...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIAWATHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODLAWN...
KICKAPOO RESERVATION...
SABETHA...
FAIRVIEW...
POWHATTAN...
MORRILL...
HAMLIN...

[Dave]

Still holding with 1 tornado & 9 thunderstorm warnings at 2300 hrs edt but time I bailed out for the night, besides, this system will be in my area tomorrow night. Just hope we don't see grapefruit size hail, doubtful but one never knows. See ya!

[brunota2003]

See ya ai9d, I am out as well...almost bed time for me too.

[brunota2003]

This is the same area that the grapefruit sized hail moved through earlier:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

MOC061-080430-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090608T0430Z/
DAVIESS MO-
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS
COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1107 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND THE PUBLIC REPORTED A
TORNADO DOING DAMAGE ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTH OF GALLATIN. TREES AND
POWERLINES ARE DOWN...AND DAMAGE TO A SCHOOL HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS
TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORHTEAST AT 35 MPH.

PERSONS IN RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST DAVIESS COUNTY NEED TO BE IN
SAFE SHELTER NOW! A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND DOING DAMAGE!

VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN
70 MPH ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE TORNADO TRACK...INCLUDING GALLATIN
AND JAMESPORT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE LOCK SPRINGS.

[brunota2003]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

MOC061-080430-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090608T0430Z/
DAVIESS MO-
1121 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAVIESS COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND
AND EAST OF GALLATIN. DOPPLER RADAR NO LONGER SHOWS STRONG ROTATION
THAT WAS EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO THAT TRACKED ACROSS
SOUTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY. ANY TORNADO WOULD BE WRAPPED IN TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...PERSONS BETWEEN LOCK SPRINGS AND JAMESPORT
SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTER.

[brunota2003]

Nice write up and photos from NW MO

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=severe-jun072009

[Dave]

Might want to update the title to June 7 & 8th LOL Looks like i have a mesoscale discussion to my west now. Can we say day 2?

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA/FAR
NORTHERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081349Z - 081515Z

MAINLY A SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA/PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN KY. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING IA/NORTHERN MO
EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN KY. ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...12Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM LINCOLN
IL/SPRINGFIELD MO REFLECT RATHER STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AROUND 2700 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. EVEN WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SOME
CONGEALING/LINEAR ORGANIZATION SOUTHEAST OF ST LOUIS...LEADING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED DESTABILIZATION AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE REGION FROM THE
SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO OK AND NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST WSWLY FLOW OF 35-50KT EXISTS IN A BROAD BELT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO...SOUTH
TX...AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND WAS CROSSING THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT...PRECEEDED BY
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOVES EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY. THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT....FROM SERN KS
ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX PNHDL...WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG OR NEAR THIS
AXIS AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS DURING THE DAY.

...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
AND FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION TODAY DESPITE THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE PLAINS. INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI THIS MORNING AIDED BY A LEADING
SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON
THE NOSE OF 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME NWD
PROGRESS ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF PCPN AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S F/
AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. GIVEN SUPPORTIVE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION... EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG/AHEAD OF
RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BELT OF FASTER WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 50KT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH THIS RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

ATTM...PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PINPOINT THOSE AREAS WHERE THE GREATER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FROM IL INTO LOWER MI. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MORE SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND LOW MAY OUTRUN GREATER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND RESULT IN LIMITED STORM COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM IL
INTO SWRN LOWER MI WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE SITUATED AND
DIABATICALLY ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND PERHAPS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LARGER HAIL AS WELL.

...MO SWWD TO OK/NWRN TX...
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF THESE AREAS BUT
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND
RESIDUAL/DECAYING CIRRUS CANOPIES WILL OCCUR BENEATH PRONOUNCED EML
AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PROCESS SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS
OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NWRN TX ACROSS OK AND INTO MO.
MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR IS FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 2500 J/KG
BUT INHIBITION WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND
LIFT/MIXING ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES TO LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW INTO THE
EVENING.

WHILE GREATER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE NW TX AREA
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA BENEATH 35-40KT WLY 500MB
FLOW. AS IN PRIOR DAYS...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
WITH HEATING...MARGINALLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS PUSHED INTO
ERN/SERN PARTS OF WY/CO PLAINS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGION LIES
BENEATH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECT TERRAIN AND LARGE SCALE
INFLUENCES TO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOWER LEVEL HELICITY ENHANCED BY
ELY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

...DELMARVA/PA/NJ...
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...AND INTERSECTION OF
THIS TROUGH WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS PA/NJ COULD AID STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED/SUSTAINED BY
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY LATER
TODAY. MODELS DO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
25-30KT LATER TODAY AND THIS COULD FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS WITHIN STORM UPDRAFTS AND EXPECT
ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TSTM WIND EVENTS.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATE...
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/ATOP RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM NWRN OK TO
WRN KS AS NEXT IMPULSES EMANATING FROM SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER SRN CA MOVE EAST. NONETHELESS...ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR POTENT AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. THUS...AT LEAST
A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/08/2009

[brunota2003]

Gotcha, title updated.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL IL INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN
WI/NORTHWEST INDIANA/EASTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081654Z - 081830Z

SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL IL AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST INDIANA/EASTERN MO
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WHEN INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
BECOMES APPARENT...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.


WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A NORTHEAST ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IA AT MIDDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK /50
KT AT 500 MB/ CROSSING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO/ACROSS NORTHERN
IL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUD COVER TENDING TO CLEAR ACROSS FAR
EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AT MIDDAY...SOME SIGNS OF INCIPIENT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY ALREADY BE
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND/OR SUBTLE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND OVERALL IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AS THE PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...AFOREMENTIONED
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAKENING/VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD KEEP SUCH A THREAT LOW.

THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT TO WEST CENTRAL IL/EASTERN MO...GIVEN
EARLY DAY TSTMS/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...IN ADDITION TO BEING MORE
REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NEVERTHELESS...A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

[Dave]

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM IA...ALONG AND S OF
THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI INTO NRN IL...AND IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD FROM IA INTO SW
WI/NW IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE N OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL IL...AND PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT /ESPECIALLY
WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/...BUT GENERALLY VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY N OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT THIS OVERALL THREAT.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
148 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

* AT 145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM ROCHELLE TO ASHTON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MALTA BY 210 PM...
SYCAMORE...DE KALB...AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF GENOA BY 225 PM...
8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMPSHIRE BY 230 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO
NORTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082020Z - 082145Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM THREAT /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND/ MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL
MO INTO NORTHERN AR. INCREASING SIGNS OF SURFACE BASED DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON.


IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...GRADUAL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND A BOUT OF SUBSIDENCE
APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PREFRONTAL CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND/DEEPEN MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MO/SOUTHWEST IL AS OF 20Z. SURFACE MODIFIED 12Z SPRINGFIELD MO/18Z
LINCOLN IL RAOBS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH MORE CONTEMPORARY RUC
SOUNDINGS...IMPLY THAT LITTLE PREFRONTAL CINH REMAINS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F IN MOST LOCALES.
GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE
COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT UNCLEAR.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RESIDUAL MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND A RATHER UNSTABLE BOUNDARY /2000-3500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...AT
LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL TX...SW AND S CENTRAL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082018Z - 082115Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF
NW AND N CENTRAL TX INTO SW/S CENTRAL OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...REQUIRING A WW
BEFORE 21Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NERN OK SW
TOWARD SPS AND W TOWARD LBB WHERE IT WAS ANCHORED BY A WEAK SURFACE
LOW. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO SWRN TX...WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SITUATED E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE COLD
FRONT. MORNING RAOBS AND RECENT 18Z LMN SOUNDING DEPICT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J PER KG/. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING
NE OUT OF NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NW/N CENTRAL TX AS EARLY AS 21Z.

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...AREA PROFILERS...AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE A BAND OF W-SWLY 40+ KT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-50 KT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. IN
ADDITION...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR STRONG COLD
POOL PRODUCTION AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EXPAND IN
COVERAGE.

..GARNER.. 06/08/2009

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...SRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082003Z - 082130Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO N INTO THE
LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF WY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN
CO AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF SERN WY IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ADDITIONAL AREA
OF DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST N OF AN AXIS BETWEEN
DEN AND LIC...NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DENVER CYCLONE...WHICH
IS WELL DEFINED IN RECENT SURFACE OBS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OVER FAR NERN CO...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
PREVENTING MORE ROBUST SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. AT 19Z...A TONGUE OF
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM ITR NE TO FCL AND LAR/CYS.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM
/BASED ON 18Z DNR SOUNDING/...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK
SHOWERY CONVECTION ONGOING SINCE LATE MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN
AND INTENSIFY OVER SERN WY AND NRN CO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITHIN THE
DENVER CYCLONE...GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /UPPER 60S/ IS CLOSE
TO BEING ACHIEVED.

COMBINATION OF HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOCUS TIGHTENING HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
/40-80 KT/ MID-UPPER LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WY/CO. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO SELY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /IN EXCESS OF 40-50
KT/...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF DEN.

..GARNER.. 06/08/2009