EPAC : Invest 91E

[cycloneye]

The second invest of the EPAC basin this year.Post away your discussions about this area.

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invest_ep912009.invest
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200906072137
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2009, DB, O, 2009060718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912009
EP, 91, 2009060718, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1180W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

This was the Tropical Weather Outlook of 11 AM PDT:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE




Floater pic

[Macrocane]

It seems that the development of a tropical cyclone from this disturbance is more likely than the development of the Caribbean one. The conditions will be more favorable late this week, and there are more models supporting this scenario than the Caribbean low.

[cycloneye]

152
ABPZ20 KNHC 072332
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009060800, , BEST, 0, 91N, 1185W, 20, 1009, DB,

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Look at the increase in convection from HURAKAN's image to this one, just 1 hour 30 minutes apart.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/flash-avn.html

Some rotation is also apparent.

[wyq614]

Chance rised

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

This system is looking pretty good at the moment, wouldn't be all that surprising if this does end up developing. Whatever happens its quite late for the first system of the season to come along, esp compared to the last 10 years., though we've seen busy seasons with late starts, like 1994.

[cycloneye]

TD in a day or two.

760
ABPZ20 KNHC 081144
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

The first model plots show hurricane Andres on the horizon.

WHXX01 KMIA 081315
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC MON JUN 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090608 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090608 1200 090609 0000 090609 1200 090610 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.1N 121.0W 9.3N 122.3W 9.5N 123.8W 9.8N 125.2W
BAMD 9.1N 121.0W 9.5N 121.8W 9.8N 122.6W 10.1N 123.6W
BAMM 9.1N 121.0W 9.3N 121.7W 9.3N 122.6W 9.4N 123.7W
LBAR 9.1N 121.0W 9.7N 121.6W 10.6N 122.4W 11.4N 123.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090610 1200 090611 1200 090612 1200 090613 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 126.6W 9.9N 129.5W 10.3N 131.9W 11.0N 133.7W
BAMD 10.2N 124.6W 10.0N 127.4W 10.4N 130.5W 10.6N 132.6W
BAMM 9.4N 124.9W 9.3N 127.8W 9.6N 130.4W 9.8N 132.1W
LBAR 12.1N 124.5W 14.5N 127.4W 18.0N 130.6W 21.9N 130.8W
SHIP 49KTS 69KTS 77KTS 82KTS
DSHP 49KTS 69KTS 77KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 121.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 120.6W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 119.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

188
ABPZ20 KNHC 081734
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Lurker]

Does anyone know when the average first named storm occurs in the EPAC? It is July 10th in the Atlantic Basin.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009060818, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1170W, 20, 1008, DB

[cycloneye]

After the first very bullish models data of intensity,the 18 UTC models dont strenghen this to a named storm.


WHXX01 KMIA 081814
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC MON JUN 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090608 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090608 1800 090609 0600 090609 1800 090610 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 117.0W 11.6N 118.8W 12.3N 120.4W 12.7N 121.7W
BAMD 11.0N 117.0W 11.6N 117.9W 12.0N 118.7W 12.4N 119.5W
BAMM 11.0N 117.0W 11.4N 118.0W 11.8N 119.0W 12.1N 120.0W
LBAR 11.0N 117.0W 11.9N 118.0W 12.9N 119.1W 14.3N 120.4W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 25KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090610 1800 090611 1800 090612 1800 090613 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 123.1W 13.3N 125.9W 13.6N 127.7W 14.2N 127.7W
BAMD 12.6N 120.5W 13.1N 123.3W 14.4N 125.6W 16.9N 126.0W
BAMM 12.3N 121.2W 12.5N 124.2W 13.4N 126.5W 14.1N 127.5W
LBAR 15.8N 121.5W 20.3N 123.0W 26.3N 120.5W 33.8N 109.8W
SHIP 27KTS 30KTS 30KTS 29KTS
DSHP 27KTS 30KTS 30KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 117.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 115.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 114.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

Does anyone know when the average first named storm occurs in the EPAC? It is July 10th in the Atlantic Basin.

Not sure on the exact date, but I would guess the the first week of June.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone know when the average first named storm occurs in the EPAC? It is July 10th in the Atlantic Basin.

Tomorrow, June 9th. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml?

[cycloneye]

My goodness,this morning it looked like a lock to be a Tropical Cyclone,but now its a big mess.For sure the EPAC season has started in a very slow manner with only two invests so far.