June 7 - 13 Severe Weather

[Dave]

WASHINGTON IL-
625 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
THAT THE ROTATION IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS AGAIN STRENGTHENED.
THIS STRONG ROTATION WAS LOCATED NEAR STONE CHURCH...OR 13 MILES
SOUTH OF NEW BADEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVELY GROVE...FROGTOWN...COVINGTON...ADDIEVILLE...ELKTON...NEW
MINDEN...OAKDALE AND CORDES.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN FISHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAMLIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
HAMLIN BY 700 PM CDT...
MCCAULLEY BY 705 PM CDT...
NEINDA BY 715 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
CENTRAL REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OATES...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IRONTON. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTERVILLE...LESTERVILLE...REDFORD AND CHLORIDE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF GLOVER...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
IRONTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANNAPOLIS...LESTERVILLE...SABULA AND CHLORIDE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
731 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 729 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PINCKNEYVILLE...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
TAMAROA...
DU QUOIN...

PUBLIC OFFICIALS REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD 10 MILES WEST OF
TAMAROA AT 729 PM.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
742 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF ELLINGTON...OR 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PIEDMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REDFORD...VULCAN AND DES ARC.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
847 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HILLSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 845 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BEAR LAKE...OR 3 MILES SOUTH OF HILLSDALE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE STORM INCLUDE...
OSSEO AND SHADYSIDE...
PITTSFORD...
PRATTVILLE...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
857 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 857 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF HUDSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HUDSON AND ADDISON AROUND 905 PM EDT.
CLAYTON AND ONSTED AROUND 915 PM EDT.
MORENCI AROUND 920 PM EDT.
ADRIAN AND CLINTON AROUND 930 PM EDT.
TECUMSEH AROUND 935 PM EDT.
BLISSFIELD AND DEERFIELD AROUND 945 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
WESTON... SPRINGVILLE... SAND CREEK...
ROLLIN... RIGA... RIDGEWAY...
PALMYRA... MUNSON... MEDINA...
MANITOU BEACH... MACON... JASPER...
DEVILS LAKE... CANANDAIGUA... CAMBRIDGE JUNCTION...
CADMUS... TIPTON... SENECA...
ROME CENTER... OGDEN CENTER... LIME CREEK...
HOLLOWAY... FAIRFIELD...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
805 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 803 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ROYALTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
ROYALTON...
ZEIGLER...
HURST...
WEST FRANKFORT...
HERRIN...
ENERGY...
CARTERVILLE...
CAMBRIA...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
710 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 745 PM MDT

* AT 710 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
NORTHEASTERN WELD COUNTY...OR 31 MILES WEST OF STERLING. THIS STORM
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
WARNED COUNTY.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
813 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEINDA...OR
6 MILES SOUTH OF HAMLIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
ANSON BY 845 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
737 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT

* AT 736 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM
WHEN IT WAS IN EXTREME EASTERN WELD COUNTY AT 7:27 PM. STORM WAS
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESTPLAINS...NORTH STERLING RESERVOIR AND NORTH CENTRAL STERLING.

[Cookie]

is it looking bad for tonight?

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM NERN CO ACROSS KS/MO AND ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...AND
FROM THE MDT RISK AREA SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE EAST FROM WRN NC TO SERN
PA...

...SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING ACROSS
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM
AZ/NM THIS MORNING TO MO BY TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM KS/OK EWD ACROSS
MO TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
LATER TODAY.

A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
INTO QUEBEC CANADA TODAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL PASS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA WITH RESIDUAL/WEAKENING STATIONARY PORTION
OF THIS FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY.

...NRN OK/SRN-CNTRL KS AND INTO WRN MO...
A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. TSTMS...ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WERE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AS MASS TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALONG THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT AS VERY UNSTABLE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM SRN/CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS OK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CAPPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY FUELING ELEVATED STORMS FROM KS INTO MO...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR THIS AREA...SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION AS STORMS INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED AS CAP IS
BREACHED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW AND
WARM FRONT...SOMEWHERE NEAR SRN KS/NRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA SHOULD ALSO LIE NEAR THE SWRN/SRN FLANK OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...IN A REGION WHERE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE STRENGTHENED AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/
AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS/MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR
TWO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON DISCRETE STORM
INITIATION NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE-POINT LOW ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...OR PERHAPS IN SRN/SERN KS
AT THE TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
20-22 UTC.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING FROM
NERN OK/ERN KS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN MO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM KS/OK INTO CNTRL MO.

...EAST...
AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS FROM
DELMARVA NWD ACROSS ERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CAROLINAS TO VA.
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN MARGINALLY SHEARED FLOW. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THESE AREAS.
GREATER PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE-TROUGH AND NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION AND
DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM PA ACROSS DELMARVA AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHER MULTICELLULAR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND/MARGINAL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN CO/WRN KS...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM
INITIATION AS WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. RESULTING
STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO HELICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE/LEE LOW AIDING STORM INFLOW AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CNTRL OK SWWD ALONG TX DRYLINE...
AN ENSEMBLE OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXTENSIVE TX DRYLINE FROM SPS/ABI
AREAS SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED BY STOUT EML...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCAL HEATING AND MIXING
ALONG THE GRADUALLY ADVANCING DRYLINE...ALONG WITH VERY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE
STORM INITIATION...ESPECIALLY IN TX. INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
WILL LEAD TO HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THIS REGIME.

THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM INITIATION WHICH
APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THIS AREA LIES
BETWEEN BETTER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION BREACHING THE
CAP WOULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
THUS...CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009

[Dave]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

KANSAS
OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MISSOURI FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.

A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A JET STREAK...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO MISSOURI BY TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...
COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI.

THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS AREA
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS. EVENTUALLY...STORM MERGERS AND AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD LEAD TO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX
MAY GO ON TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..CARBIN.. 06/09/2009

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091216Z - 091315Z

ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN NEB PRIOR TO THE LLJ/WAA WEAKENING
SOME BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN KS INTO
SRN NEB. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED OVER SERN CO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH NRN
OK TO NRN AR. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE EXIT REGION OF A
SWLY 50 KT MID LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 45-50 KT WLY
JET OVER SD/NEB WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AN INFLOW
OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG SSWLY 30-35 KT LLJ COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 06/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 905 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE REGION OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
IN RESPONSE TO WAA IN A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG/. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD
EWD/ESEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD WRN MO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING RISK OF LARGE HAIL. IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE SRN
FLANK OF THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY SWWD INTO WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091548Z - 091715Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME HAIL. REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK AT 1630Z AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
N OF ART SWWD THROUGH WRN NY /E OF JHW/...NWRN PA INTO CNTRL OH. A
WARM FRONT THEN STRETCHED GENERALLY SSEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO W
OF UCA...E OF AVP INTO THE DELMARVA. CONSIDERABLE DIABATIC HEATING
WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BASED
ON MODIFICATION OF 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A NUMBER OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
IMPULSES AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE MOST
NOTABLE OF WHICH IS FEATURE OVER IND INTO WRN OH AS OF 1540Z.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS /REF. 12Z BUF SOUNDING/
WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE NY/PA BORDER WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN
ZONAL MOMENTUM WITH SWD EXTENT. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY
PROMOTE CLUSTERS AND/OR BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...

VALID 091611Z - 091745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM NEAR OR N OF EMP ESEWD INTO
W CNTRL MO.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS TSTMS ALONG SRN EDGE OF
EVOLVING MCS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL LOCATED OVER MORRIS COUNTY
KS AS OF 16Z. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE SITUATED JUST N OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM N OF DDC TO NEAR EMP TO N OF SGF.
GIVEN THE SLIGHT ACCELERATION NOTED WITHIN THE PAST FEW VOLUME
SCANS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
EXHIBIT SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION.

IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS IS ALREADY QUITE
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
MOREOVER...EVOLVING N-S CONVECTIVE BAND IS ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL
TO MODERATELY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. AS
SUCH...SETUP IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF
A BOWING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD MOVE/PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE
COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT. SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION TAKE PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG SYSTEM
PATH.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

[Dave]

Title addition to June 9 & 10th maybe Brunota? It just keeps on going....