Invest 90 Map update 12P EDT

Scott_inVA · #1 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:36 am

"Catch of the Day" now updated

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

JCT777 · #2 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:43 am

Most of those tracks seem reasonable, except the AVN track.

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 12:15 pm

Looks like all the models are responding to the expected weakness in the ridge. As always time will tell.

#4 Postby **Stephanie** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 12:16 pm

Yeah, what's with the "Z" track of AVN? :roll:

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 12:17 pm

This one is going FISHING by the models definition today.

Will time tell? Who knows?

Patricia

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 12:26 pm

If that is the case then the islands will be safe but I still dont buy that sudden recurve thing only because the system is far south in latitud 9n and if system remains weak as a TD or minimal TS and not a hurricane it then goes with the east flow west.

Scott_inVA · #7 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 1:15 pm

Stephanie wrote:Yeah, what's with the "Z" track of AVN?

At 850MB the model is evolving 90 from a wave to an elongated area of low pressure (at 500mb this reseambes small trof). Going down to the surface, there are two vorts and eventually, to use familiar terms, the center reorganizes and the new low takes off.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 1:35 pm

The tropical models are being initialized by the GFS. Unless the GFS were to shift more westerly, expect the majority of the models to curve the low between 45 and 50. The GFS has had a northerly bias in the past. Plus, the model guidance already appears to be too far north as they show a WNW movement beginning rather soon. This surely doesn't mean recurvature isn't possible...but a curve closer to the islands is more likely, if at all. The bottom line is that its too early and the models are inconconclusive.

Steve H. · #9 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 1:53 pm

Agree TWW, given the current pattern, a turn at that longitude seems unreasonable. Looking at the latest sat pix, seems like our low is getting well organized. Me thinks she's westward bound with a slight bend to the WNW over the next few days. Low latitude right now at 20mph? She's getting a good shove west before the northerly component engages. Think she's one to be concerned with down the road. Just the gut speaking of course. But the ridge has held up fairly well so far this summer. Overall the models show this to continue through the next week. Cheers!!

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 4:00 pm

I agree, too early to know for sure if this system will definately recurve or not. A lot can change between now and the "most dramatic turn" in the forecast models.

Scott_inVA · #11 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 4:15 pm

I'll try and get the maps done again by 6PM Eastern...5 Central...Check Local Listings.

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jul 30, 2003 5:34 pm

And the globals begin to shift west.....nice maps Scott.

Invest 90 Map update 12P EDT

Invest 90 Map update 12P EDT

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