H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

Chat about anything and everything... (well almost anything) Whether it be the front porch or the pot belly stove or news of interest or a topic of your liking, this is the place to post it.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
SaskatchewanScreamer

#201 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Tue Jun 09, 2009 8:56 pm

Just to be clear my ? wasn't regarding a connection between people getting sicker and a change in a pandemic level.

This is the article my ? was based on.....

'Very close to knowing' if swine flu at pandemic level: WHO

Situation in Canada's aboriginal communities of 'concern,' WHO warns
Last Updated: Tuesday, June 9, 2009 | 3:52 PM ET

The World Health Organization is moving closer to declaring a pandemic of swine flu but wants to avoid the excessive panic surrounding such a declaration, the agency's top flu expert said Tuesday.

"One critical issue is we do not want people to 'over-panic' if they hear we are in a pandemic situation," Keiji Fukuda, acting WHO assistant director-general, told a news conference in Geneva.

WHO wants to prevent people from burdening emergency rooms unnecessarily, and give countries time to prepare guidelines on treating more patients if a pandemic is declared.

The agency also does not want countries to respond with actions that aren't needed, such as shunning pork or restricting travel.

WHO is concerned about the sustained spread of the H1N1 virus in countries such as Australia, which had 1,051 cases as of Tuesday, mostly in the southern state of Victoria. Health officials noted what is called "community spread," meaning random cases that can't be traced back to the first infected person. There also reports of community spread in Chile, where there are 411 cases.

To move its pandemic alert from the current Phase 5 to Phase 6 or a full-blown pandemic, the agency is looking for confirmed community spread in a region outside of North America, where the outbreak began.

Moving to Phase 6 does not mean the situation is more severe or that people are getting seriously sick in higher numbers, Fukuda stressed, noting the agency still considers the impact on countries to be "relatively moderate."

Looking for 'indisputable evidence' of pandemic

Since the outbreak first appeared in Mexico in May, the number of swine flu cases has increased to 26,563 in 73 countries and the number of deaths worldwide has reached 140, Fukuda announced.

"We are getting really very close to knowing that we are in a pandemic situation," Fukuda said.

"On the surface of it, I think we are in phase 6," agreed Margaret Chan, WHO's director-general.

Chan said she would hold a conference call with governments on Wednesday to verify reports of community spread.

"Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement," Chan told reporters in Geneva.

WHO worried about Canada's aboriginal communities
Fukuda noted the situation in Canada's Inuit communities is of "concern."

As of Monday, Canada had 2,446 confirmed cases. Of these, the more severe cases are disproportionately concentrated among people from northern and aboriginal communities, as well as among those with underlying health conditions. There have been three deaths linked to swine flu in Canada so far.

"Up in Canada, we know that there are reports of infections occurring in Inuit communities, with a disproportionate number of serious cases occurring," Fukuda said. "So these are observations of concern to us."

In Manitoba, for example, 26 people were in intensive care for swine flu as of Sunday night, and more than half were of aboriginal descent.

On Tuesday, the number of cases in Nunavut doubled from 25 to 53. So far, the Yukon has one confirmed case and the Northwest Territories has two.

In some areas of Nunavut, half of those hospitalized are Inuit, Fukuda said, noting Inuit populations were also severely hit in previous pandemics of other illnesses.

It's not clear what factors might be causing more severe cases in northern and aboriginal communities.

Possibilities include:

Genetics.
Underlying chronic diseases such as Type 2 diabetes.
Poverty and poor living conditions like overcrowded housing and lack of running water.
WHO is concerned that vulnerable populations in South America and Africa could also be hit hard.


There are no major changes in the virus itself. The majority of infections worldwide have been in people younger than 60, Fukuda said.

Seasonal influenza normally wanes in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer, but flu activity continues.
0 likes   

SaskatchewanScreamer

#202 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:18 pm

Regarding how "bad" a particular pandemic is I see there is a Pandemic Severity Level now.

Severity level is initially based on case-fatality ratio (CFR), a single criterion that will likely be known even early in a pandemic when small clusters and outbreaks are occurring, the report says. Other measures, such as excess mortality, could be factored in later. Two events would prompt the CDC director to designate a pandemic category: the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring a phase 6 pandemic level and the US government declaring a stage 3, 4, or 5 alert.

The Pandemic Severity Index levels are:

Category 1, CFR of less than 0.1%
Category 2, CFR 0.1% to 0.5%
Category 3, CFR 0.5% to 1%
Category 4, CFR 1% to 2%
Category 5, CFR 2% or higher

The PSI "has been a missing aspect to pandemic preparedness," said Dr. Marty Cetron, director of the CDC's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.


The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 both fit into Category 2, whereas the severe pandemic of 1918-19 qualified as a Category 5, according to Cetron and Gerberding

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten ... demic.html
0 likes   

lurkey
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2381
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide

#203 Postby lurkey » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:12 am

WHO: Swine flu pandemic has begun

The World Health Organization told its member nations it was declaring a swine flu pandemic Thursday.

http://www.wral.com/news/science/story/5331552/
0 likes   

lurkey
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2381
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared Pandemic

#204 Postby lurkey » Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:35 am

WHO Declares First Pandemic in 41 Years
Thursday, June 11, 2009

Reuters


GENEVA — WHO's chief declared the spread of swine flu has caused the first global flu epidemic in 41 years.

"This means the world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century," Dr. Margaret Chan told reporters.

Chan said the move reflected the geographic spread of the virus but did not indicate the severity of the H1N1 pandemic. She said the WHO's global assessment was that the pandemic was moderate. She also said the WHO did not recommend closing borders and there should not be restrictions on the movement of people, goods and services.

WHO told its member nations it was declaring a swine flu pandemic earlier Thursday as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.

Chan also said there will be more swine flu deaths but no sudden jump in fatal cases. She said countries already hit by swine flu should prepare for a "second wave" of cases.

The long-awaited pandemic decision is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe. It will trigger drugmakers to speed up production of a swine flu vaccine and prompt governments to devote more money toward efforts to contain the virus.

"At this early stage, the pandemic can be characterized globally as being moderate in severity," WHO said in the statement, urging nations not to close borders or restrict travel and trade.

WHO also told countries it was in "close dialogue" with flu vaccine makers and it believed the firms would work "to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come."

Flu vaccine makers like GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Sanofi-Aventis have been working since last month on a swine flu vaccine. GlaxoSmithKline spokesman Stephen Rea said the company was ready to start making swine flu vaccine in large quantities once it finished its regular flu vaccine production in July.

On Wednesday, WHO said 74 countries had reported nearly 27,737 cases of swine flu, including 141 deaths. The agency has stressed that most cases have been mild and required no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities — especially in poorer countries.

Still, about half of the people who have died from swine flu, also known by its scientific name H1N1, were previously young and healthy — people who are not usually susceptible to flu.

Swine flu is also continuing to spread during the start of summer in the northern hemisphere. Normally, flu viruses disappear with warm weather, but swine flu is proving to be resilient.

The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.

Many health experts say WHO's pandemic declaration could have come weeks earlier but the agency became bogged down by politics. In May, several countries urged WHO not to declare a pandemic, fearing it would cause social and economic turmoil.

"This is WHO finally catching up with the facts," said Michael Osterholm, a flu expert at the University of Minnesota who has advised the U.S. government on pandemic preparations.

Despite WHO's hopes, raising the epidemic alert to the highest level will almost certainly spark some panic about spread of swine flu.

Fear has already gripped Argentina, where thousands worried about swine flu flooded into hospitals this week, bringing emergency health services in Buenos Aires, the capital, to the brink of collapse. Last month, a bus arriving in Argentina from Chile was stoned by people who thought a passenger on it had swine flu. Chile has the most swine flu cases in South America.

In Hong Kong on Thursday, the government ordered all kindergartens and primary schools closed for two weeks after a dozen students tested positive for swine flu — a move that some health experts would consider an overreaction.

In the United States, where there have been more than 13,000 cases and at least 27 deaths from swine flu, officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the move would not change how the U.S. tackled swine flu.

"Our actions in the past month have been as if there was a pandemic in this country," Glen Nowak, a CDC spokesman, said Thursday.

The U.S. government has already taken steps like increasing availability of flu-fighting medicines and authorizing $1 billion for the development of a new vaccine against the novel virus. In addition, new cases seem to be declining in many parts of the country, U.S. health officials say, as North America moves out of its traditional winter flu season.

Still, Osterholm said Thursday's decision was a wake-up call for the world.

"I think a lot of people think we're done with swine flu, but you can't fall asleep at the wheel," he said. "We don't know what's going to happen in the next 6 to 12 months."
0 likes   

User avatar
Category 5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10074
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
Location: New Brunswick, NJ
Contact:

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#205 Postby Category 5 » Thu Jun 11, 2009 2:18 pm

This is still news?

More people have died from regular flu during this whole "pandemic".
0 likes   

lurkey
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2381
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#206 Postby lurkey » Thu Jun 11, 2009 2:21 pm

Category 5 wrote:This is still news?

More people have died from regular flu during this whole "pandemic".


yeah, unfortunately. . .
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#207 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jun 11, 2009 2:45 pm

Category 5 wrote:This is still news?

More people have died from regular flu during this whole "pandemic".


They are just watching it because many times a new influenza virus has been mild in the spring then returned much worse in the fall (with the Spanish Flu being the biggest example).
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#208 Postby Cookiely » Thu Jun 11, 2009 2:57 pm

Lethality of H1N1 Influenza Virus Increasing According to Latest Analysis (Private Company - Replikins Ltd)
http://chattahbox.com/health/2009/06/11 ... -analysis/

(ChattahBox) — An analysis of the latest peptide genomic data for the H1N1 influenza virus indicates that the current global outbreak of H1N1 is increasing in its capacity for lethality. The new sequence data on PubMed of the past two weeks through June 10, 2009 showed an increase in the Replikin Count* of the Replikin Lethality Gene in the pB1 genomic area from a mean of 2+/-0.2 in 2008 to a mean of 3.2+/-3.7 in 2009 (p<0.001). The Replikin Count of the Lethality Gene in 836 previous H1N1 influenza virus isolates has remained essentially unchanged (at 2) since 1933.
Analysis was conducted by the Boston-based biotech firm Replikins, Ltd. (http://www.replikins.com) using its FluForecast(R) software. A year ago (4/7/0, using the same software, the firm predicted the current H1N1 virus outbreak, and last month (5/23/09) an increase in the Replikin Count of the Replikin Infectivity Gene in the hemagglutinin area indicated a marked increase in infectivity of the evolving H1N1 virus.
“Last month the H1N1 genomic data indicated some bad and some good news. While it indicated an increase in the infectivity of the H1N1 virus, its lethality appeared to remain relatively low,” noted Sam Bogoch, MD, PhD, chairman of Replikins Ltd. “However, the FluForecast(R) analysis of new data of the past few weeks, through June 10th, on 144 new specimens published on PubMed, indicate an increase in the current H1N1 outbreak’s capacity for lethality. Since the software also permitted the automated analysis of all sequence data available on PubMed for all previous years, it was noted that this is the first such significant increase in the Replikin Count of the H1N1 Lethality Gene in 76 years. This is cause for concern and an accelerated vaccine effort.”
For both the Infectivity Gene and the Lethality Gene, a significant increase in Replikin Count has invariably been followed by an increase in infectivity or lethality in influenza. While both the Replikin Infectivity Gene and the Replikin Lethality Gene have been found to act independently in all common influenza strains in human, swine, and bird hosts, both of these genes have been inhibited by the Two-Punch(TM) vaccine system — designed to be concurrently directed at both genes.
The company recently announced that it has made available for testing against H1N1 a Two-Punch(TM) PanFlu(TM) vaccine. The same vaccine system has been successfully tested against H5N1 in chickens.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#209 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 11, 2009 3:03 pm

*yawn*
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#210 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 11, 2009 3:24 pm

Category 5 wrote:This is still news?

More people have died from regular flu during this whole "pandemic".


Actually, a number of past pandemics have had slow starts but developed strong peaks as much as a year after the initial outbreak. I read an interesting article about this a month or two ago - I'll post a link if I can remember where it was.

Anyway, it's rather too early to think it's over.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re:

#211 Postby Stephanie » Thu Jun 11, 2009 6:56 pm

SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:I noticed that they are looking at the Inuit closely since they are having more severe reactions to the flu. I wonder if it is poverty or their genetic makeup that is making a difference? Canada certainly has enough of the antiviral medicine yet the Inuit and First Nation people are getting sicker.

They also mentioned that in Australia the virus is moving quickly.......how it is affecting their aboriginal community?


Many that had contracted this in the US are young. I read somewhere that they believe that they have not built up antibodies against this virus. The older people have been exposed to other viruses that have probably helped to strengthen our immune system against this. The Inuit and the Aboriginal communities are more secluded from the mainstream, so I would think that their immune systems would be suseptible to this virus.
0 likes   

lurkey
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2381
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#212 Postby lurkey » Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:33 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#213 Postby Cookiely » Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:53 pm

I find it extremely disturbing how many pregnant women are on ventilators and are dying. This is not normal seasonal flu behavior which usually target the elderly.
FLORIDA
MADEIRA BEACH - A couple found dead together in their condominium had been suffering from a serious case of the flu, neighbors said.

Detectives said the deaths were not suspicious and there was no sign of violence in the home. An autopsy will be conducted to determine an official cause of death.

Edwin and Louise Kaczmarski, both 65, were found dead in their condominium at the Madeira Beach Yacht Club on Wednesday afternoon, according to the Pinellas County Sheriff's Office.

Tess Orlando, a member of the board of directors at the 286-unit waterfront complex, said she and complex manager Tom Petty went to the couple's condominium unit to see whether they had returned from a trip to Pennsylvania to attend a classic car show.

Petty went in, saw the bodies and told Orlando to call 911, Orlando said.

Louise Kaczmarski was also on the condo board, and Orlando said she wanted to know whether Kaczmarski was going to attend a scheduled meeting.

"They both had the flu," Orlando said.

That last time Orlando heard from Louise Kaczmarski was in an e-mail sent before the Kaczmarskis returned from their trip. Louise Kaczmarski, who had a heart condition, wrote, "I feel awful," Orlando said.

"They were good people," Orlando said. "It's such a shock."

Detectives said the bodies were discovered in a severe state of decomposition.

Bill Pellan, director of investigations for the Pinellas Medical Examiner's Office, said several people at the condominium complex reportedly had flu-like symptoms last month. One was tested for N1HI, and the test was negative.

There was contact with the Kaczmarskis at the time of the May report, but there was no indication that either were suffering flu-like symptoms at the time, he said.

Reporter Stephen Thompson can be reached at (727) 451-2336.
0 likes   

SaskatchewanScreamer

#214 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:37 pm

I wondered about that too Stephanie (re isolation and less exposure).

I mentioned the Aboriginals in Australia because I know they don't have the same genetic make-up as the Natives do here so was curious if they, living most likely in somewhat similar ie poverty conditions there, were also having more severe symptoms (I wasn't sure if they are as isolated as the Inuit are here).
0 likes   

lurkey
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2381
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#215 Postby lurkey » Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:25 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#216 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:59 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
WeatherLovingDoc
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 453
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:08 pm
Location: Washington D.C.

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#217 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:16 pm

My sister called me this morning to say my teen nephew coughed for 4 hours last night and awoke with a 104 F fever this morning. On to the pediatrician, nasal swab done and Influenza A diagnosed. Tamiflu for him full dose (he suffers from asthma and allergies) and preventive dose for my sister and BIL. Turns out a lot of kids at his NJ high school have been coughing and sick.

This certainly does bring it close to home.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#218 Postby Stephanie » Fri Jun 12, 2009 8:08 pm

WeatherLovingDoc wrote:My sister called me this morning to say my teen nephew coughed for 4 hours last night and awoke with a 104 F fever this morning. On to the pediatrician, nasal swab done and Influenza A diagnosed. Tamiflu for him full dose (he suffers from asthma and allergies) and preventive dose for my sister and BIL. Turns out a lot of kids at his NJ high school have been coughing and sick.

This certainly does bring it close to home.


They'll probably test it for the swine flu especially since it's Influenza A. I'm glad that they were able to get on top of the situation quickly.

May I ask where in NJ?
0 likes   

User avatar
WeatherLovingDoc
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 453
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:08 pm
Location: Washington D.C.

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#219 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Fri Jun 12, 2009 9:09 pm

Hi Stephanie- this is in Bergen County. I see you live in NJ too.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dionne
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Age: 74
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:51 am
Location: SW Mississippi....Alaska transplant via a Southern Belle.

Re: H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

#220 Postby Dionne » Sat Jun 13, 2009 8:21 am

Flew through DFW late yesterday. Woman wearing a "mask"....ya know on of those doctors surgical masks....comes to the gate we're all waiting at....weather delays....people see her in the mask and the area clears. Everyone moves away from her. I'm not particularly worried as I suspect Bec and I have already both had a mild dose of the flu. It was interesting watching people scatter.
0 likes   


Return to “Off Topic”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests