SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[EastTxGal]

That is not good news! The rain last week by-passed us. This looks to be a long hot and dry summer.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Handy AccuWx 12Z GFS MOS says over half an inch of rain arrives in just two weeks.


Not that I trust the GFS past the 180 hour lobotomy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Impressive looking storms just a 7 hours drive away near SPS and ABI.


The Cleveland (TX) area might be getting a sprinkle per local radar.

[southerngale]

My weather alert just woke me up with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. A what? There's no chance of rain.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 101. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.


So I checked radar thinking it was an error... storms heading SE in this general direction. I don't know if they'll make it this far as they're still up near Tyler, but they look pretty strong. hmmm, guess we'll see.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As I feared, storms are weakening during the cool part of the morning, especially as they try to push deeper into the ridge position.


Small optimism/hope- generally South/Southeast winds seem a tad lighter today, and maybe won't wash out the outflow boundary before max heating. Seems forever since I've seen a seabreeze. But the forecast delta-T between Gulf and land is over 15ºF, and the winds might be light enough. Or maybe not.

Cap may be just weak enough to allow storms to develop North of the HOU area if the boundary survives, but I think they'll need to generate a new cold pool to move Southward based on wind fields.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I could be wrong, but I think I see a gravity wave

Looks better in motion in above link.

[srainhoutx]

I could be wrong, but I think I see a gravity wave

Looks better in motion in above link.

Yep. EWX made mention of it a bit earlier.

[southerngale]

Everything is still weakening as it nears the Lufkin area. It doesn't look like we'll see any rain this far south.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Everything is still weakening as it nears the Lufkin area. It doesn't look like we'll see any rain this far south.

Not looking good, at least for sea breeze stuff, as winds are picking up around here. But satellite shows there are still differential heating boundaries and/or outflow boundaries, and it is getting warmer, so it isn't likely today, but it isn't hopeless yet either.





ETA:
My 'not hopeless' may be a tad optimistic...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
RADAR ACTIVITY TRENDING DOWN AS PINEY WOOD PRECIPITATION FIELD
WANES GOING INTO THE HEAT OF THE DAY. VIS SAT DEPICTING GRAVITY
WAVE PATTERN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...OR SOUTHWEST OF LATTEST MCS
LOCATED BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR AT 1PM. STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (PER
WIND FIELD) ACROSS THE LUFKIN AREA...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
ALL POINTS SOUTH. PATTERN IS MORPHING INTO ONE FOR THE CAP AND
ZERO FOR CONVECTION. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN UPON WHETHER A THUNDERSTORM
FLARE UP OR TWO ALONG AN OLD RESIDUAL BOUNDARY (WITHIN THIS VERY
MOIST AIR MASS/AMPLE INFLOW) DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY
WILL OCCUR. PUMP IS PRIMED AND IT IS BASICALLY A WATCH AND WAIT
ISSUE TO SEE IF NEW ACTIVITY BEGINS TO FIRE BEFORE SUNSET. THE
AREA OF INTEREST BASICALLY PARALLELS THE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...OR
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF KCLL AND KUTS TERMINALS. 31

[Ed Mahmoud]

Must have beat you with my edit by about 8 seconds...


ETA

But you beat me editing...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am quite curious to see if 3 pm CDT update clears HOU are from 'SLIGHT RISK' area.



News storms forming up toward Abilene, and a new tornado watch there. P'haps they'll go upscale and send an MCS this way, although I kind of doubt it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sort of OT, but LBB radar shows a oddly shaped but stationary boundary, I'm assuming the dry line.

Go look, its cool, not bats leaving a cave in South Texas and being ingested into a supercell kind of cool radar,but cool.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff Lindner...

Extreme instability coupled with low level outflow boundary has led to an explosive convective situation late this afternoon over C TX.

Massive supercell cell has developed NNW of Austin metro area near intersection of old outflow boundary and surface dry line. This large cell is clearly growing upscale into a forward bending MCS structure. Per latest SPC meso discussion highlighting CAPE of 4000-5000 J/KG over C and western SE TX and NEXRAD out of Granger showing at least 20-30kts of low level inflow...fear is that this system may grow into a rapid SSE moving bow echo with high end damaging wind threat. Current Tornado Watch out until 1000pm stops at our county border...however track of current activity shows a rapid heading for areas around Austin and then toward our NW and possibly western counties.

We shall keep a very close watch as potential is at hand for damaging bow echo event to approach and possibly move into portions of SE TX after dark. Capping increases toward the coast...so the incoming complex will be fighting against an increasingly unfavorable thermo profile...however the radar trends and at least 75bdz reflectivity is cause for some concern.

[CajunMama]

I can finally say my yard is beginning to look dry and there's no sign of rain for the next 7 days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Storms beginning to fizzle. Up toward CLL area, radar suggests the anvil might be dropping light precip.


But although GFS shows no precip Monday, the 500 and 700 mb ridge axis is a tad North of us, putting SETX into Easterly flow aloft, and surface winds may be light enough to allow sea breeze boundaries to form.

700 mb- thicknesses pretty high, so its hot, but South to Southeast flow might weaken cap.



Only ointment in that fly, as mentioned, the heights, GFS has a warm forecast profile, and little instability. Probably why it doesn't show rain.

[Ed Mahmoud]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING TOUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE RECIPE TO BAKE THE
REGION WITH 93-98 DEGREE INLAND TEMPERATURES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL CRUSH THE CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON THE
MAX TEMPS AND 2 TO 6 ON MINS. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS.
FORTUNATELY AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS INLAND TO THE
MID 60S. WITH THE LOWER RH INLAND THE HEAT INDICIES SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 104 THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH ARE PROGGING A
TROUGH OVER CA TO GET LEFT BEHIND AND DRIFT EITHER NW OR BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS EITHER BUILDS
WESTWARD OR SOUTH. BOTH MODELS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
STATE FRIDAY...AM NOT AS WILLING TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST MUCH
BASED ON THIS SET OF RUNS...PERHAPS THE BEST CHANGE FOR NOW IS TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS CLOUD
COVER FROM CONVECTION OVER N TX (ALONG THE FRONT) SHOULD GET
CARRIED SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

I mowed for the first time in 2 weeks, the front, which gets less shade, almost could have gone a few more days. The back, it was getting quite shaggy.

Watered after, gotta keep the grass green and don't want the smectitic (ie, montmorillonite) type clays shrinking so much they stress the foundation.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing RE: Drought. We've seen this pattern before across TX. 1980 comes to mind. HGX thoughts were short and to the point.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PACKAGE. RIDGE HOLDS
FIRM ALL WEEK...SO DOES THE HEAT & LACK OF RAIN. 47

[vbhoutex]

I know exactly what you are saying!! I am starting to have the same "deja-vu" thoughts. NOT liking this at all. We are having August temps in mid june and are slipping right back into drought after flooding less than a month ago.

[Ptarmigan]

I know exactly what you are saying!! I am starting to have the same "deja-vu" thoughts. NOT liking this at all. We are having August temps in mid june and are slipping right back into drought after flooding less than a month ago.

We're relapsing back to a drought. I don't like that one bit.