June 7 - 13 Severe Weather

[Dave]

I did change the title

Thanks!

Yep haha...I guess I'll change the question mark once we know when the end has come...seems MN is making up for all the recent quiet weeks.

She 'could' stop anytime up here, I might mow my acre of ground sometime in august at this rate.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
740 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
WEST CENTRAL PROWERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
THIS INCLUDES LAMAR...

* UNTIL 845 PM MDT

* AT 739 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE STORM WHICH WAS RAPIDLY ROTATING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO NEAR JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...OR ABOUT 23 MILES WEST OF
LAMAR...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR.
HASTY.
CADDOA
MCCLAVE.
WILEY.
LAMAR.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
901 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

* AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
PEYTONSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
912 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PICKETT COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BYRDSTOWN...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
BYRDSTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL PICKETT COUNTY AT 930 PM CDT

[Dave]

Rain is clearing the county now, all streams up north are bank full but the rain has stopped...southern part of the county isn't receiving what the northern part got. Conditions look good here, flood watch expires at 11 pm tonight for the entire area. One piece of good news today.

[Dave]

2234 hrs (1034 edt) All tornado warnings have expired or cancelled across the US. Rain is pulling away from my area and I am going home! This EOC is nice but...my lazyboy is calling me! Have a good night everyone, I'm outta here.

[brunota2003]

Severe T-storm watch out in North OK/Southeastern KS...large batch of warnings for those storms...and here we go with Day 6.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-121330-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0456.090612T1227Z-090612T1330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
727 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 727 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WAKITA TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF HILLSDALE TO ORIENTA...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ENID AND PONCA CITY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 235.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

[CrazyC83]

Big numbers on that watch (80/60 wind). Derecho expected?

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRACK INTO WESTERN AR LATER
TODAY...AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...HART

[Bunkertor]

Big numbers on that watch (80/60 wind). Derecho expected?

Hmmmmmmmmmm.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK / AR / NRN MS / SWRN TN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 121503Z - 121630Z

REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

AS MENTIONED IN MCD 1072...REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE
OF ANY ALREADY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF 3000-4000
J/KG. 12/00Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED REMARKABLY
WELL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NERN OK BOW ECHO WITH THESE DATA TAKING
SYSTEM THROUGH AR INTO NRN MS TODAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM BOW ECHO WILL ALSO POSE
A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[CrazyC83]

The new downstream watch may be PDS at this rate (80/60 is as high as you can go without adding that, and the threat is increasing).

Definitely agreed with the moderate risk. This is a significant derecho developing.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

OKC021-041-097-101-111-131-143-145-121615-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-090612T1615Z/
OKMULGEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-ROGERS OK-DELAWARE OK-CHEROKEE OK-
TULSA OK-MAYES OK-
1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR MAYES...TULSA...WESTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...
EASTERN ROGERS...WAGONER...NORTHERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN
OKMULGEE COUNTIES...

AT 1047 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 90 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PRYOR TO MURPHY TO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAZIE TO REDBIRD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 85 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAFT...PORTER...
WAGONER...LOCUST GROVE...TULLAHASSEE...SALINA...STRANG...SUMMIT...
PEGGS...LOST CITY...MUSKOGEE...SPAVINAW...OKAY...ROSE...HULBERT...
FORT GIBSON AND LEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PERSONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD PREPARE FOR
VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. IF NO UNDERGROUND
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 9478 3584 9505 3557 9528 3586 9590
3616 9571 3651 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 280DEG 43KT 3634 9527 3617 9525
3603 9528 3592 9554

$$

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 121600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN OK...NRN AND
CENTRAL AR...WRN TN AND NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC FEATURE OF INTEREST AS RELATED TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD CENTRAL KS TO NRN OK EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY
FAST MID/UPPER WLY FLOW THAT EXTENDS EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST. A
DERECHO HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY E/ESEWD ACROSS NERN OK ON INTO LWR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.


A S/WV TROUGH ROTATES INLAND SWRN U.S. BY TONIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...ERN OK/AR/NRN MS/WRN TN...

REF MCD 1074

HAVE UPGRADED AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SEVERE MCS/DERECHO OVER NERN OK
TO MDT RISK AS THE COMBINATION OF 40-50KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE ONGOING VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH
DEWPOINTS AOA 70F...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG... A SWATH OF
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN HALF
OF AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


...CAROLINAS/GA/AL...
FARTHER EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM
EAST TN/AL EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...ALBEIT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
FARTHER WEST. LATE TONIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LONG-LIVED
MCS MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST.

...OK/TX ALONG AND JUST E OF DRYLINE...
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
NORTH CENTRAL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE IN ADVANCE OF THE RIDGING.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY HELP TO INITIATE
ISOLATED STORMS. ALSO...MOST MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CELLS FORMING
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX. ANY
STORM THAT FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
BECOMING A SUPERCELL AND WILL POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

HAVE EXTENDED THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED INITIATION INTO SWRN
TX GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED E
OF DRY LINE. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CINH BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE/SUPERCELL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.

..HALES/SMITH.. 06/12/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1609Z (12:09PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[brunota2003]

The new downstream watch may be PDS at this rate (80/60 is as high as you can go without adding that, and the threat is increasing).

Definitely agreed with the moderate risk. This is a significant derecho developing.

It will be a PDS

EXTRAPOLATION OF MCS MOTION TAKES IT E OF WW 387 BEFORE 18Z AND A
PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 17Z.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, unless it weakens suddenly between now and then (not likely) or a sudden change in the threat calls for a Tornado Watch.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387...

VALID 121601Z - 121730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS BOW ECHO CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF NERN AND E-CNTRL
OK INTO NWRN AR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS.
EXTRAPOLATION OF MCS MOTION TAKES IT E OF WW 387 BEFORE 18Z AND A
PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 17Z.

AS OF 1540Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED BOW ECHO FROM ROGERS
AND MAYS COUNTIES SWWD TO CREEK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN OK. THE
LAST SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED REAR INFLOW
NOTCH DEVELOPING OVER NRN TULSA INTO ROGERS COUNTIES. AN ASSOCIATED
ACCELERATION HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE BOW TO 40-45 KT
WITH INOLA AND CLAREMORE OK MESONET SITES REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 85
AND 61 MPH RESPECTIVELY. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO W-CNTRL AR IS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE EFFICIENT
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIKELY RESULTING IN
AN INCREASED THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WERE OBSERVED OVER HASKELL AND
MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH COUNTIES INTO ERN OK WITHIN ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF BOW ECHO. WHILE SOME THREAT OF
A TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CYCLONIC MEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2009


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34959628 35539680 35999709 36709675 36969644 37009530
36519396 35689349 35089397 34709479 34959628

[brunota2003]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387...

VALID 121601Z - 121730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS BOW ECHO CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF NERN AND E-CNTRL
OK INTO NWRN AR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS.
EXTRAPOLATION OF MCS MOTION TAKES IT E OF WW 387 BEFORE 18Z AND A
PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 17Z.

AS OF 1540Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED BOW ECHO FROM ROGERS
AND MAYS COUNTIES SWWD TO CREEK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN OK. THE
LAST SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED REAR INFLOW
NOTCH DEVELOPING OVER NRN TULSA INTO ROGERS COUNTIES. AN ASSOCIATED
ACCELERATION HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE BOW TO 40-45 KT
WITH INOLA AND CLAREMORE OK MESONET SITES REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 85
AND 61 MPH RESPECTIVELY. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO W-CNTRL AR IS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE EFFICIENT
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIKELY RESULTING IN
AN INCREASED THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WERE OBSERVED OVER HASKELL AND
MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH COUNTIES INTO ERN OK WITHIN ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF BOW ECHO. WHILE SOME THREAT OF
A TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CYCLONIC MEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2009


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

[Bunkertor]

A svr PDS is pretty rare, isn´t it

[brunota2003]

Way more unusual than a PDS Tornado Watch...since conditions have to be extremely good. If the tornado threat was higher, we'd probably be looking at a High risk, instead of a moderate.

[CrazyC83]

Way more unusual than a PDS Tornado Watch...since conditions have to be extremely good. If the tornado threat was higher, we'd probably be looking at a High risk, instead of a moderate.

What makes them really rare is the fact the tornado threat can't be too high in it. If a huge derecho plows through but there is a solid tornado threat, they would just issue a Tornado Watch (with huge wind numbers, but not PDS since the tornado part would not warrant such). Generally, the significant wind threat has to be at least 70 to warrant PDS.

AFAIK, hail cannot make a PDS watch (even if it was >95/>95).

[brunota2003]

I'm guessing the numbers will be 90/70 for the new watch.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing the numbers will be 90/70 for the new watch.

At least. My guess is >95/80, with 90 mph winds mentioned.